Crisis Averted: Merkel Set For 4th Term After SPD Backs Grand Coalition

One of this weekend's two major geopolitical unknowns was just resolved in favor of more continuity, and another 4 years of Angela Merkel.

On Sunday morning, in a much anticipated referendum, two-thirds of rank-and-file members of Germany's Social Democratic party voted in favor of a grand coalition with the veteran leader’s conservative, or CDU, bloc, giving Angela Merkel backing for her fourth term as chancellor of Germany, and ending a five month political stalemate in Berlin, which, as the FT recaps, "could help restore Germany’s leadership role in Europe at a time of mounting political challenges, including a looming trade war with the US, rising tension over Brexit and French demands for an overhaul of the eurozone."

The final result of the SPD referendum, which was announced early on Sunday, saw exactly two-thirds, or 239,604 members, voting in support of a new alliance with the centre-right, while a third, or 123,329 voted against. The turnout was 78%.


Heading into the vote, and after months of debate, SPD leaders struck a coalition deal with Merkel’s CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, last month. The party then promised to submit the agreement to a vote of its 460,000-strong base, raising the prospect of a last-minute reversal that would have plunged Germany into a political crisis and probably triggered another election.

Concerns were heightened after a special party conference in January, when only 56% of SPD delegates voted to back a coalition with Ms Merkel, highlighting the deep misgivings inside the party.

A rejection of the coalition agreement would have dealt a blow both to Ms Merkel and to the SPD, which had strong reasons to fear another ballot. Recent surveys gave the SPD only 16 per cent of the vote, more than four points below the party’s disastrous showing at last year’s inconclusive general election.

However, it was not meant to be.

"We now have clarity. The SPD will join the next federal government," said Olaf Scholz, the SPD's interim leader and the man expected to become Germany’s next finance minister.

Merkel welcomed the SPD decision in a tweet sent out by her party: “I congratulate the SPD for this clear result and look forward to working together for the good of our country,” the chancellor said.

Next, parliament is set to hold a special session to confirm Ms Merkel’s new government on March 14, and with her 4th term now officially greenlit, should Merkel see out a full term, the chancellor will have governed Europe’s biggest economy for 16 years, matching Helmut Kohl’s record as the longest-serving German chancellor.

As the FT further notes, Sunday’s result will also serve as a vote of confidence in the new SPD leadership around Andrea Nahles, the current head of the SPD parliamentary group who is set to take over as party chief next month. Ms Nahles will follow in the footsteps of Martin Schulz, whose one-year tenure was marred by heavy electoral defeats, tactical mis-steps and tension with other top party leaders.

And while the establishment breathed a sigh of relief after today's result, not everyone was convinced that this is the start of a new Germany. In a note by the New Statesman's George Eaton, he writes that "the SPD appears to have signed an electoral death warrant. Rather then renewing itself in opposition, it has chosen to again prop up the Christian Democrats. The Left Party and the Alternative for Germany will be further empowered to position themselves as anti-establishment outsiders."

Indeed, a poll earlier this week showed just how far the once mighty SPD had fallen, with just 17% support, 13 points behind the CDU and just two ahead of the anti-immigrant AfD.

For now, however, the status quo is preserved in Germany, just as the market assumed it would be.

And now, attention shifts to today's Italian election, where the outcome could have far more significant consequences for Europe, although where the consensus is also for more of the same.

Comments

bshirley1968 IridiumRebel Sun, 03/04/2018 - 09:15 Permalink

So does this mean she is really an evil ex-head of the secret police the ruins or kills all those that run against her? That elections are just for show because she will never step down?

Or maybe the elections are just a fraud and she will win no matter how the people vote because she is really just a dictator?

Aren't those the things they say about Putin and Assad as the rest they keep getting elected? Why doesn't the same go for the "Puff-n-Stuff" offspring?

European democracy = divide and conquer. Split the people into 16 different parties, and all you need is 13% of the vote to be able to tell the other 87% how to live their lives.

In reply to by IridiumRebel

Endgame Napoleon IridiumRebel Sun, 03/04/2018 - 10:19 Permalink

Well, true, but in her case, 78% of citizens eligible to vote chose that nutty path on mass immigration by turning out to vote. They will find out that the more welfare-buttressed immigrants are allowed in their country, the more wages will fall for citizens, especially with all the welfare-supported moms chasing low-wage jobs, too.

Uniparty Swampsters in the USA have alienated so many potential voters, concocting unfair welfare, tax and child-tax-credit-welfare policies that only serve the top 20% and the womb-productive citizens and noncitizens at the bottom who work cheaply due to major household bills covered by taxpayers (or spousal income), that politicians are often elected by the minority of citizens who turn out to vote.

A lot of talk about demographics justifies the rigged, means-tested and womb-productivity-based welfare state in the USA that drives down wages and hours for citizens living on earned-only income, but that provides employers with a workforce that can accept rock-bottom pay due to their pay-per-birth freebies, including refundable child tax credits that, at the $6,444 max, equal 3 months of full-time pay in many service sector jobs, like the [majority] of office jobs.

The USA is no longer composed of mostly married households and mostly married voters, including the dual-high-earner parents in the top 20% and the child-tax-credit-aided parents with spousal income that politicians serve, while also serving the single moms, legal immigrants and illegal aliens, receiving the full gamut of monthly welfare and tax-welfare freebies to raise up their inadequate pay in the service sector, whether that is retail, food services or the vast majority of office jobs.

With so many welfare-aided illegals, the few manufacturing jobs left in this country also pay beans.

28% (almost one third) of the US electorate is over 40, childless and ineligible for womb-productivity-based welfare and child-tax-credit welfare—i.e. the likely voters who are childless—not counting all of the for-now childless voters under 40 who often show up to protest more than they show up to vote, and most of the unmarried citizens in this total group face rent that consumes more than half of their earned-only income, leaving many of them the choice of living on the street, living with large groups of unattached and welfare-ineligible roommates or living in mom’s basement. 

A huge percentage of likely voters are, likewise, ineligible for monthly welfare and child-tax-credit welfare to hoist up crappy wages in the service sector because of kids that are over 18 years of age, unlike the single moms and the non-citizen, male parents with US-born kids under 18, working part time in the crappy service sector to stay below the earned-income limits for monthly welfare that covers their rent, groceries and other bills, in addition to refundable child tax credits.

It is possible that Merkel’s steadfast economic nationalism draws in more voters whose breadwinner jobs depend on the strong manufacturing sector, which she promotes.

American Uniparty politicians, by contrast, promote a weak manufacturing sector and a strong service sector, with lots of low-wage, part-time and temporary jobs, dominated by frequently absentee crony moms, with wages bouyed by monthly welfare and child-tax-credit welfare or spousal income.

A massive percentage of the moms with thousands of government dollars from monthly welfare and refundable child-tax-credit welfare are not even registered to vote, yet Uniparty politicians completely disregard the economic interests of the many registered voters, living on earned-only income, who compete with these welfare-assisted, non-voting citizens and the welfare-aided, non-voting noncitizens for jobs. 

In reply to by IridiumRebel

Arnold Theta_Burn Sun, 03/04/2018 - 09:38 Permalink

Since you are hung over from a night of hookers and blow in desperate rescue of the economy, I'll 'splain it to you.

Looney disparaged Merkel's but not Lagarde's pantsuit collection.
Lagarde is French.
He did not criticize Macron's pantsuits. Macron is another prominent French pantsuit person.
Almost, but not quite as bad as the Trudeau fashion tour.

In reply to by Theta_Burn

Grandad Grumps Sun, 03/04/2018 - 08:50 Permalink

Not sure what the appeal of the fat frau is. Sorry, just don't see the kind of leadership I want, in her. Likely she was chosen as a joke by those she is loyal to.

EuroPox Sun, 03/04/2018 - 08:55 Permalink

The Germans demanded change and voted against the last CDU/SPD coalition last year.  This caused 5 months' hiatus and resulted in... a new CDU/SPD coalition.  The only good news is that this leaves AfD as the official opposition - but as we know, Germany does not allow free thinking or free speech anymore.  Oh dear...

wmbz Sun, 03/04/2018 - 09:00 Permalink

Yea! Germany, Winning...

Sow Merkel your chosen beloved leader, will just keep right on pounding those nails into your coffin!

rwe2late Sun, 03/04/2018 - 09:23 Permalink

 So,

China is just emulating Germany's "democracy"?

Should we now expect numerous MSM articles about the "threat"of Germany

and Merkel's dictatorship?

RagnarRedux Sun, 03/04/2018 - 09:25 Permalink

There is something seriously wrong with indigenous Europeans in Western Europe, no other group has ever willingly given away their lands as well as their genetic and cultural heritage!

Minority White London Sees 20% More Rapes, 33% More Murders, 40% More Robberies, 25% More Knife Crime In One Year

http://newobserveronline.com/minority-white-london-sees-20-more-rapes-3…

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-20680565

Child Sex Abuse Gangs Could Have Assaulted ONE MILLION Youngsters In The UK

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/child-sex-abuse-gangs-could-51140…

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31691061

German Primary School With 99% Migrants Now Needs Security Guards Against Explosion Of Violence

https://voiceofeurope.com/2018/03/german-primary-school-99-migrants-now…