A new study in the New York Times suggests that Saudi Arabia's state of the art defense system failed to intercept the ballistic missile fired by Yemen's Houthi rebels which nearly hit Riyadh's international airport on November 4th. The report contradicts the official claims of the Saudi and American governments, which both announced immediately after the incident that the US-supplied Patriot missile defense system had successfully intercepted the Houthi fired Scud.
The analysis, which utilized open-source material in the form of available video and social media photos of the aftermath of the attack, was conducted by a team of missile experts, and threatens to shake confidence in the US system, which is currently implemented by American allies around the world from South Korea and Taiwan to Turkey, Israel and Japan, among others.
Image via Indian Express, representational image
And notably President Trump himself had announced while aboard Air Force One on the day following the attack, “Our system knocked the missile out of the air.” Trump also emphasized the importance of demonstrable success of the systems and added, “That’s how good we are. Nobody makes what we make, and now we’re selling it all over the world.”
But The New York Times report begins with a flat contradiction of that claim:
The official story was clear: Saudi forces shot down a ballistic missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebel group last month at Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh. It was a victory for the Saudis and for the United States, which supplied the Patriot missile defense system.
...But an analysis of photos and videos of the strike posted to social media suggests that story may be wrong. Instead, evidence analyzed by a research team of missile experts appears to show the missile’s warhead flew unimpeded over Saudi defenses and nearly hit its target, Riyadh’s airport. The warhead detonated so close to the domestic terminal that customers jumped out of their seats.
The Houthi missile was identified at the time as a Burqan-2, revealed in a video of the November 4 launch produced by a Houthi group, and is a variant of the Scud missile commonly used in the region. The attack took Middle East observers by surprise as the missile traveled about 600 miles and reveals a growing sophistication in the Houthi arsenal - all of which led to a number of researchers to claim Iranian origins of the weapon, something which Iran and its regional allies continue to deny.
Image via How Stuff Works/Raytheon
As part of the NYT investigation experts primarily examined the multiple videos and photos of missile debris locations and missile parts, and concluded that the Saudis couldn't have intercepted the warhead, which further appears to have exploded on impact, something which wouldn't have happened had the projectile been effectively intercepted.
The report continues:
Saudi officials said the debris, which appears to belong to a downed Burqan-2, showed a successful shootdown. But an analysis of the debris shows that the warhead components – the part of the missile that carries the explosives – were missing. The missing warhead signaled something important to the analysts: that the missile may have evaded Saudi defenses.
...This would explain why the debris in Riyadh only appears to consist of the rear tube. And it suggests that the Saudis may have missed the missile, or only hit the tube after it had separated and begun to fall uselessly toward earth.
Researchers also examined extensive video and eyewitness testimony from the airport and in the vicinity of what the Saudi authorities initially reported as mere falling debris, however, the evidence points to an explosion that could only be explained by the impact of the warhead, which likely evaded the defensive measures. Videos recorded an explosion which occurred at a location very near the main domestic terminal of the airport, the immediate aftermath of which was clearly visible and was strongly felt inside the terminal.
Video sequence showing footage collected from the November 4th attack.
The warhead, the report says, continued on its trajectory after mid-air separation from the rest of the missile, which it is designed to do, making it harder to intercept as it nears its target. Though Saudi officials claimed that it was only debris from an intercepted missile that hit the airport, researchers concluded:
The blast was small, and satellite imagery of the airport taken immediately before and after the blast is not detailed enough to capture the crater from the impact, the analysts said. But it does show ground damage from the emergency vehicles, supporting the finding that the warhead hit just off the runway.
While the Houthis missed their target, Mr. Lewis said, they got close enough to show that their missiles can reach it and can evade Saudi defenses. “A kilometer is a pretty normal miss rate for a Scud,” he said. “The Houthis got very close to creaming that airport.”
One scientist cited in the report, Laura Grego, noted that it's hugely significant that the Saudis fired five times at the incoming missile and missed. "You shoot five times at this missile and they all miss? That's shocking,” she said. “That's shocking because this system is supposed to work.”
Though the Saudi government didn't respond to the report, and will likely not address the findings, it will be interesting to see the Patriot system's performance during the next incursion. As fighting is continuing to intensify in neighboring Yemen, it is likely only a matter of time.
"bark loudly and carry a limp stick <honk honk>" D.T. Barnum
imagine my surprise.
now think about NK
I'm too busy thinking about Pearl Harbor.
kim's sitting ducks
maybe saudi needs a few s-400's.
The iron dome did pretty well. Patriots seem to suck but that doesnt mean usa doesnt have other tech that works.
The old tractor gearbox we saw on twitter says that the missile was intercepted and destroyed. period.
The real-life track record is as follows:
Iron Dome -> Failure
Patriot -> Failure
THAAD -> Failure
Imagine how toothless we'd look if we took a shot at one of the Nork's missile launches and failed. This is why we've only made loud noises so far.
Is it fair to judge Patriot when crewed by non-US crews (especially the Saudis)?
The Emperor's Wunderwaffle wears no clothes.
In theory, what works in theory works in real life. In real life, the shit doesn't work.
Best defense against SCUDs is no defense. They are wildly inaccurate. And the US missles even more inaccurate.
Best defense against SCUDs is no defense. They are wildly inaccurate. And the US missles even more inaccurate.
Well it ain't exactly a system that relies on a great hand-eye coordination. It either tracks and hits or it doesn't.
It appears that the missile boys say it doesn't.
Five times, it doesn't ain't exactly a great sales pitch for Raytheon.
Missile defense always struck me as a hit or miss business. It looks like the US has gone for the easier and more profitable miss option.
It's quite obvious that ZergHedge is attacking US technology without any basis. Ah, the multi-pronged approach of Moosad. For an intercept to be successful radar must be placed well. That's because there's only a narrow window of opportunity for taking out a rocket. Launch too late, or from too far away, and it's hopeless.
OK, retard. When USA attacked Iraq, only few percent of Scuds were successfully intercepted by Patriots.
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/21/world/patriot-missile-s-success-a-myth...
Zh only regurgitated a NYT article so it is quite obvious you have very little reading comprehension capability.
" Nobody makes what we make, and now we’re selling it all over the world.”"
But, at least were winning
Nothing like bragging how much we are selling weapons throughout the world. Nice to see your colors Donald.
"... and now we're selling it all over the world." : Well, I can understand how that would make you feel richer but I can't understand how it would make you feel safer.
"But we have the best weapons!"
"I know. But you're selling them all over the world!!!!!!!!"
Well, given that you trust foreigners all over the world with your you-beaut weapons, can I buy one? Or do I have to change my nationality?
If you think the domestic model is bad you don't want to have to count on the export model.
Keep selling them small arms and outmoded systems, and make sure the Semites destroy themselves.
Good riddance.
Next thing you know,we will even be selling the shit to our enemies.
I thought we concluded that was the water pump off a 62 Buick?
While it's entirely possible that system doesn't actually work, it's equally possible that this was user error on the part of the saudis. I've spent some time over there a long time ago, and those people do not take care of ANYTHING nor do they bother learning how to use it. They could break an iron anvil with a rubber mallet.
I tend not to beleive anything reported by the NYT. The progressive stupid is strong with them.
Grimaldus
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NYT just front running. Mate over there said it's being discussed in UAE, people reporting the near miss at the airport. It is coming out one way or the other so NYT making a virtue of a necessity.
The defense system misses could be true or it could be the fact that missle wreckage falls to the ground. Gravity and all that.
Grimaldus
What matters is where the warhead falls and detonates.
Carl, I'm gonna bet you dollars to donuts that no Saudi operates that stuff. They hire honkies to do the techno work.
Hilarious. What will the Khazars do with 100,000 high end missles coming at them from Hezbollah-ville? Suffer. That's what.
Good riddance.
Make sure none escape this time.
I dropped a toothpick on your bosses head, think that will have any effects.
.
however missiles do not have gearboxes, the gearboxes said Mercedes on them, unless of course the missile was made by mercedes.
But was it an automatic missile or a manual missile? Or was it an old road ranger gearbox? Perhaps the missile forgot to double de-clutch.
Like the F-35 perhaps?
david sling and iron dome another israeli propaganda crap, ask Hezbollah.
LOL!!!! Try another jooshit.
Screw that! USER ERROR, send those DUPES an instruction manual! They havent fought their own battles since 1973 and likely couldnt load a cartridge without us holding their hand!
. . . people pay money for them, so they work just fine.
Triple digit SAMS are easy to mess with. The system can be spoofed and overwhelmed. LO HARMs and EMPs. (Yes, they do exist in US inventory). can deal with the threat.
Don't believe the hype. It hasn't stopped Israel from attacking Syria whenever it wants.
Looks you know nothing about this subject
Refute posts meta-truth of Izzy bombing& assassinating any one,any where it feels like ,including Iran& the good 'ole Jewnited Shakes Uv 'murica.,since it was siezed.
Refute posts meta-truth of Izzy bombing& assassinating any one,any where it feels like ,including Iran& the good 'ole Jewnited Shakes Uv 'murica.,since it was siezed.
Refute posts meta-truth of Izzy bombing& assassinating any one,any where it feels like ,including Iran& the good 'ole Jewnited Shakes Uv 'murica.,since it was siezed.With total impunity.
Can SCUDs actually do any real damage anyways? Might be cheaper to just let the bottle rockets land
If they land on you, then yes.
Not to mention the psycological effect of having rockets shower on your capital city, scaring people and disrupting everyday life.
We in Israel had to put up with that for years and years, as the Palestinian "Kassam" rockets have turned life in some Israeli towns into a living hell.
Not many were actually killed, but an entire generation grew up in constant anxiety and fear.
And now we have iron dome and the Palestinians are still stuck in their own $***...
<cue sad violin music, hands mementoil a tissue>