Huh.
https://ballotpedia.org/What_happens_if_a_presidential_candidate_declares_victory_in_the_2020_election_before_results_are_final
>Predictions about a blue shift in election results
This says:
According to the blue shift thesis, Democratic voters are more likely to use provisional ballots than Republican voters. A provisional ballot is one that is only counted after the voter's eligibility to vote is verified. Because provisional ballots can be counted after election night, according to this picture, Democratic candidates tend to make greater gains after election night than Republican candidates do.
So basically these provisional ballots will largely decide who winsin which states from those we're still waiting for to be counted.