Bernd
09/23/2021 (Thu) 19:58:39
No.45090
del
The most important EU election will take place on Sunday, ze German one. Whom they put into power will influence greatly which avenue will everyone take in the EU to hell - the path can be different, but the destination was set long ago. Oh well.
Reichstag Bundestag offers 598 seats to take, 300 is needed for majority, which last time the strongest party, the CDU/CSU alliance couldn't achieve. Now without Mutti Merkel they are in an even worse position.
CDU/CSU - conservatives (tho I do not see what they conserve, whatever, let's just roll with the labels), now they have Armin Laschet instead of Merkel
SPD - social-democrat, Olaf Sholz, main contender
GrĂ¼nen - green, they had a rise in popularity in recent years (and had a spike some months ago), but riding that "stop climate change" horse is just too easy by anyone, so others can chip away votes with similar rhetoric
AfD - far right, strong-ish in the East, but nationwide, they can only perform their usual ~10%
FDP - classical liberal, boring
Linke - socialist (in transition to soc-dem, tho I think then their supporters could just vote for SPD), kinda interesting, leave NATO tunes, and redistribute wealth
Now I'm not at home in German politics, but I see a coalition happening between the SPD, Greens, and Left (there were coalition before participating the CDU/CSU and the SPD, so they aren't above of unlikely cooperation), from the polls (of Politico...) they approach to 50% support which should be more than enough for >50% of the seats (last time the CDU/CSU got 246 with 33%). Beside constituencies, representatives are sent from the party lists, and they have other rules too, making the distribution of the seats not linear.
In a Guardian article I found two possible coalition, both containing the Greens:
1. traffic light coalition: SPD (red), FDP (yellow), Greens (green)
2. Jamaica coalition: CDU (black), Greens (green), FDP (yellow)
It seems just as AfD, the Linke is also considered untouchable when the question about coalitions comes up.
Climate and economic recovery are the two main issues. Not that exciting, but very much predictable.