>>46215
The Russian situation is quite different than the Chinese one. There really never was any chance of China invading China, it would have been a disaster for them. But For Russia it would be bad, but maybe not that bad. Russia is not as economically dependent on the west as China is, and while yes she does export heavily to the EU much of that is energy and I'm not sure how willing or even able the EU would be to cut those imports overnight. The EU is also going to be looking for alternatives whether Russia invades or not, they really have made themselves the number one enemy of the west again, for now at least, so it might not even change much if they did invade in that regard. The build up itself is also quite different than what they did before and what China did, they were not simply deploying troops or flying jets on the border to make a fuss. They were trying hard to conceal what they were doing and when spotted they then made those lists of demands to the west almost as an afterthought or a distraction.

Whether they invade or not I think this situation will not go well from them, all they are doing is galvanising western and Ukrainian opinion against them. But still, I agree they probably will not invade, I just think it's far more likely than with China.