>>48908
>It is p good considering. I dunno what's the trend with 2nd round votes, if there is any, but he might even close on Lula further. Seeing that only a "couple" of votes are needed might move his voterbase. On the other hand seeing that Bolsonaro has a chance, more people will go to vote on Lula.
Lula's voters were hyped for a 1st round victory, which was possible in some polls. Now everyone is on edge. If Bolsonaro wins, he'll have a stronger base in Congress. Lula's left-wing base has less than a third of seats, but he'll find a way to bribe the center. Left-wing parties can be clearly identified, but everything else is increasingly hard to describe looking at parties alone. Because of his political incompetence, Bolsonaro failed to form a party of his own and is temporarily in the PL, a typical "physiological" party without any ideology, only clientelism. Bolsonaristas have swelled the party's ranks and made it the largest one in Congress, but they'll migrate to another as soon as their leader doesn't need the party anymore. Historically it was even allied to Lula. Most of the other non-leftist parties are similarly confusing and will include both consistently anti-Lula factions and the amorphous centrists waiting for their share of the budget to join the government. There's a tendency of consolidation into larger parties, but they aren't getting any less confusing.

The post-2006 north-south electoral divide is still in place, but Lula gained a massive number of votes in the blue areas. Bolsonaro gained a smaller number in red country. Inter-regional hate is as strong as ever, ironically given how Bolsonaro's margin is small in blue country. Also notable is how Ciro Gomes took a nosedive, even in his home state. Lula's political offensives demolished his place in the left.