Bernd
02/26/2023 (Sun) 15:41
No.49872
del
All right, a bit of speculation.
It looks like Russians aren't just encircling Bakhmut, but already planning the next move on Chasiv Yar, they'll need to envelope it anyway.
So here it goes.
The next (and only) defensible line before the chain of towns from Sloviansk to that conglomeration is that zig-zagging canal, with Chasiv Yar as main bastion. Two main roads are leading through the area: the M-03 in the north, the H-32 in the south; and a railway line is running through the town.
Attempting an encirclement on Chasiv Yar from the south is hard to imagine for me. First, it has to be launched from beyond the southern line of the canal, where Russians don't have a stable foothold (it is contested on a different map if they are there at all), and the attacking forces can be counter-attacked from the sides both from Kostiantyinvka and Chasiv Yar. I believe the could move the front up to the H-32 or at least close enough so they can hold the road under constant fire.
For me it seems much more feasable to move along the M-03 and onto the canal north of Chasiv Yar, there is an "elbow" they could attack from the north and south, at Novomarkove they could establish a bridgehead, and then on the other side of the canal they could push south onto Chasiv Yar and the railroad line.
On pic 4 there are the approximate area they would take.