I keep reaching back into my memories of the war in Ukraine to compare speculation with the actual course of events. Before the war, there was widespread expectation in the West that Ukraine would be rapidly crushed under overwhelming Russian firepower. When this didn't happen, commentators diverged, the official Western line became very derisive of Russian capabilities, although the focus was always on Russian incompetence and not Ukrainian competence.
Others emphasized Russia could still do a lot of damage, very early on there was talk about how Russia had only deployed the first wave. Then, speculation shifted to an encirclement of Ukraine's forces in the Donbas by Russians in the south linking up with those coming from Kharkov. None of this happened, predicted encirclements kept shrinking, but Russian firepower did win in Severodonetsk.
Then came the Ukrainian Kharkov offensive, and expectations of future Russian performance sank further, while much confidence was placed in Ukrainian performance. Pro-Russians seemed nervous about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive, while pro-Ukrainians were triumphalist. Now that the offensive has been foiled, expected Russian performance swings positively.