Bernd
02/05/2024 (Mon) 16:35
No.51616
del
"Major" change just north of Avdiivka, Russians pushed south on both end of that lake, Ukrainians gave up the land inbetween, withdrew.
I think next Russians try to reach that road on the other side of town, one of the "lifelines" for the defenders of the town proper. I think Ukrainians will gradually give up land, especially when Russians finally reach that road. In the end I expect the front to be stabilized somewhere at the blue line.
I don't expect the coke plant fall, I think very tough resistance is organized there.
I wouldn't even guess how long this will take.
Some speculations after this... Russians still have to occupy the rest of Donetsk oblast. Important towns are Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, chief nests for the separatists movements when hell broke out back in 2014-15. And there is the rest of Zaporozhia and Kherson.
Still I think next big battle (like Bakhmut and Avdiivka) will be either at Siversk or Chasiv Yar. Perhaps Siversk. Russians might try advance along that road from Bakhmut towards Sloviansk more, then close on Siversk.