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Syria Thread - It's Actually Ukraine Edition Bernd 04/01/2022 (Fri) 19:04 [Preview] No. 47132
Previous:
>>44602

Can't do without a bit of Syria. Tradition. Continue discussing conflicts in third world shitholes. The hot topic these days is Ukraine however.
Situation after way over a month is unsure. Russian had obvious results in the map painting department, but about how each militaries are doing the intel is unreliable. In the north changes seem to happen, previously Russian occupied settlements now under Ukrainian control again. Russians said they are withdrawing troops, Ukrainians said they're just regrouping for another attack. In the south Russians reached the Dniepr from Crimea and pushed to the east reaching Donbas, Mariupol is surrounded but not surrendered yet. Most of Luhanks oblast seems to be occupied. Clashes were had to the west over the Dnieper, up to Mykolaev and Krivoy Rog. Lots of fighting were done at Sumy and Kharkov. I think now an operational pause is going on.
Now on this livemap I see many air raid sirens going off in western Ukraine. Not sure why.

Here's a handy informational from Al Jazeera.
It shows who will suck the most in the EU, since official policy now seem to turning to give up Russian fossil fuels and replace them with... energy grass? I dunno, something oil from US companies, or oil from companies owned by US companies or something.
Also this don't seem to show the gas situation, gas as natural gas, not benzine/gasoline/diesel or what USians calls gas.
Anyway several EU countries have reasons to veto embargo on fossil fuels as weapon against Russia:
- Latvia
- Northern Hungary
- Finland
- Hungary
- Lithuania
- Bulgaria
- Poland
- Czech Republic
- Estonia
- Netherlands
- Romania
So basically every fugging Eastern EU countries, Netherlands, plus Germany herself but they don't care.


Bernd 04/01/2022 (Fri) 22:30:13 [Preview] No.47133 del
>>47100
I'm thinking you probably don't deserve a serious reply
>>47101
Very understanding of you. Here's more for you to commiserate with.
>>47105
>nor what the real situation on the ground is or what the real plan of the Russian army is
>Or maybe they do intend to bring more forces in at some point but later on, I don't know.
True, we don't know. But my guess is that the Russian claim about the assault on Kiev and other areas being purely diversionary is a pretext. As (I think) you said, even if the chance of success is small, it still makes sense to try an assault on the main cities, away from Donbass, if success would mean a quick and relatively bloodless end to the conflict. Well, most likely they gave it a go, and it didn't work out. If it was only diversionary, why announce it publicly and lead Ukr to redeploy its forces, pinned down there, to other fronts? One reason may be deception. However, there are reports now about Russian forces leaving some areas like Gostomel, Chernobyl, somewhere around Sumy, somewhere around Kherson. If that's true, there was no deception since it makes little sense to leave now just to redo the work later. So if they are leaving those areas it must be because staying is not sustainable, or because troops are needed elsewhere and no other reinforcements are forthcoming, or because they reached some kind of agreement and are getting something else in return (there were reports about Moscow and Kiev getting a little closer in their positions at Constantinople).
My guess is that there will be no russian mobilization and no more forces will be deployed. Russian forces will finish clearing up Mariupol and eventually take the rest of Donbass either through fighting or by striking a deal with Kiev. The vanquishing of Azov and the liberation of Mariupol will be celebrated loudly. But it will mean the rest of Novorossia, and Kiev itself, will have slipped away. Of course, "the west" is bound to call it a russian defeat in any case. But, although neither Kiev or Novorossia where at any point an official goal, some russians, too, will wonder if the reward was worth the sacrifices. Furthermore, I'm sure that, in this scenario where russia doesn't obtain a capitulation from kiev, the post-war direction of the ukrainian state will continue to be pro-atlanticist and anti-russia (even if militarily neutral). Just consider the >$13 billions approved by the US congress as "aid" for ukraine. Obviously this is again the same ngo-mediated influence-buying policy-directing program we have seen before.
The kremlin is making a mistake. Strelkov was right.
>>47118
>That's a bit exaggerated.
Not too much, though. Every 3 or 4 days there's an article about US/UK/EU/Turkey sending more equipment. And when there is not, we read instead about them asking for more.
>how they gain ground by the house. And how the Chechens rode into the town and died.
Ironic. It seems (some of) the Chechens themselves forgot about Grozny.
>I seem to recall a video featuring him where they used green screen
I saw that. 2 actually. Mismatched lighting, not well done.


Bernd 04/01/2022 (Fri) 22:58:57 [Preview] No.47134 del
>>47119
>Ukrainians might feel more and more they are a cohesive nation-state capable of organizing and sustaining a war effort.
May be, but it is very clear that the organization comes at least partially from nato/5-eyes with which they admit to be in daily contact. If russia "loses" this, the ukraine may move towards a more cohesive state not because of an increase in cooperation between their peoples, but because the pro-russia people will feel abandoned and will quietly suffer the same suppression they have for the past 7 years at least. Because, if russia "loses" this, it will be because it didn't really want to win it that much.
But actually, when I say "russia" I really mean the kremlin. It seems to me that most russians do want to win this very much (even more so after seeing what the UAF does to POW), so the kremlin is walking on thin ice: a defeat, or a victory only on paper, could spell serious instability for the russian govt.
>the most pro-Russian parts of the country will be the most damaged by combat.
This became clear early on. Obviously Azov didn't gaf about the damage to Mariupol or its inhabitants. Same about the rest of Donbas. The tactic seems to be to force the russian forces to partially destroy the civilian/industrial infrastructure if they want to take the cities. Meanwhile, the population centres in the far west, from which the "ukrainian" ideology spreads, remains almost intact. Russia should duke Lvov.
>Russia will have more gains as the war gets long and bitter, but their quality will be lower.
But will it get much longer? There is some chatter now about a partial convergence in their negotiating positions (basically ukr saying it's willing to agree on neutrality, provided they can aspire to eventually join EU [more on this below], and willing to "compromise" on Donbass and Crimea; no mention of demilitarization or denazification). Supposing ukr agrees in full, would rus accept and end the war at once? Given the costs already paid and those to be paid for several more years (if the economic war is not stopped), would Russia be content with that? Like you, I tend to think "no". But as I said, the only way I see for moscow to extract a complete surrender from kiev is by deploying the rest of its army and, at least partially, mobilizing its population and economy. And that is not happening. On the contrary we are beginning to see some controlled retreat/redeployment.
About Ukr joining EU: The exclusivity demanded by EU in 2013 was one of the factors that contributed to the 2014 coup and the civil war in the Ukraine. It would be kind of lame for russia to now acquiesce to the same thing.
Also, notice that this is somewhat in tension with the neutrality demand: EU is developing into a superstate and starting to acquire elements of a military alliance. Just a couple of weeks ago a "common military strategy" was introduced, including the creation of a "rapid deployment force", cooperation and integration of infosec capabilities, joint military-related investment and development, and NATO cooperation. In fact, France has been among the strongest supporters of the creation of a european army and one of the conduits discussed for the implementation of such project was the EU. Russia is making a mistake if it still believes that EU is just a trade bloc. If USA's rule over Europe remains strong, EU will act as an extension of NATO. If it weakens, EU might become a separate military bloc.
>Winter War
Russia proper gained territory as a result, so I'm drawing a parallel between the narratives surrounding that conflict and the ones that reasonably could sprout from this one.


Bernd 04/02/2022 (Sat) 00:49:32 [Preview] No.47135 del
>>47134
>May be, but it is very clear that the organization comes at least partially from nato/5-eyes with which they admit to be in daily contact.
Ukraine receives good intel from the West and this improves its combat effectiveness, but it would mean nothing without a fighting force on the ground capable of exploiting it. Russian advance failed to be overwhelming probably not because of Russian military incompetence (maybe they're underperforming relative to expectations, but not the main factor) but because the Ukrainian military is a serious fighting force holding ground to the best of its abilities and keeping its cohesiveness. Not even a large number of Western military advisors on the ground would save an incompetent or demoralized Ukrainian military.
>If russia "loses" this, the ukraine may move towards a more cohesive state not because of an increase in cooperation between their peoples
But that can very well happen depending on the psychological impact. To increase influence on the entire Ukraine Russia needs a positive psychological impact by demoralizing and humiliating the anti-Russian side or taking over the entire country and providing good governance. Declaring war, allowing the Ukrainians to fight seriously and ending it without demoralization is a recipe for reinforcing anti-Russian opinion in the country. And not just that, but also reinforcing the belief that confrontation is viable.


Bernd 04/02/2022 (Sat) 02:19:59 [Preview] No.47136 del
>>47133
>As (I think) you said, even if the chance of success is small, it still makes sense to try an assault on the main cities, away from Donbass, if success would mean a quick and relatively bloodless end to the conflict. Well, most likely they gave it a go, and it didn't work out. If it was only diversionary, why announce it publicly and lead Ukr to redeploy its forces, pinned down there, to other fronts?
Yes I said that, but it did also scare the pants off the Ukrainians and forced them to divert forces to Kiev in order to defend it.
>So if they are leaving those areas it must be because staying is not sustainable, or because troops are needed elsewhere and no other reinforcements are forthcoming,
>My guess is that there will be no russian mobilization and no more forces will be deployed.
Yes, they are the inferior force in terms of numbers and have to husband forces much more than Ukraine does. I heard they were calling more Conscripts but I don't know how the Russian conscript system actually works, I know that in many nations they have seasonal drafts where they call up young adults for their mandatory service and training and then releases them after a set time and that just repeats, they may simply be doing that which they would have done anyway. Plus conscripts need training and that takes time.
>Russian forces will finish clearing up Mariupol and eventually take the rest of Donbass either through fighting or by striking a deal with Kiev. The vanquishing of Azov and the liberation of Mariupol will be celebrated loudly. But it will mean the rest of Novorossia, and Kiev itself, will have slipped away.
Maybe, the Ukrainians have a sizeable force in the Donbass and we don't really know what the state of the rest of their army is and how much they have lost or how their logistics are holding up. This could play out like the German invasion of France where the Germans cut off the bulk of the standing allied force in the north leaving just demoralised fragment and reserves to defend France herself who were quickly run over in the second phase of the invasion. That is what I had thought would happen from the beginning and it still might.
>Furthermore, I'm sure that, in this scenario where russia doesn't obtain a capitulation from kiev, the post-war direction of the ukrainian state will continue to be pro-atlanticist and anti-russia (even if militarily neutral).
Yes, that's why I think that they won't accept anything less than a capitulation unless they really have too.


Bernd 04/02/2022 (Sat) 07:15:19 [Preview] No.47137 del
>>47133
>slide
It is not.
>I'm thinking you probably don't deserve a serious reply
>Very understanding of you. Here's more for you to commiserate with.
He is and Oldbernd whose main interests lies elsewhere, he was never big in politics or wars. He contributes in many ways in many threads, helps keeping them going, keeping this board not turning into ghost town. This isn't a politics board anyway, but international where international and intra-national events can be discussed.
You don't need to reply him seriously ofc. Meself didn't reply seriously to posters whom I perceived annoying in a way. But I think expressing sympathy towards everyday Ukrainians shouldn't be annoying to anyone, I don't see how it is a problem for you (ok it's overdone by the media, but their life isn't a cakewalk, nor everyday Russians' for that matter, or even the soldiers now fighting on both sides).


Bernd 04/03/2022 (Sun) 15:34:27 [Preview] No.47142 del
I'm sure you have no doubt all heard about the uncovering of executed civilians around the areas the Russians withdrew from and how the media are saying the Russians massacred civilians.
Maybe. I don't know it's too hard and too soon to tell, I think something this big should be looked into before making such accusations as in wars like this it's fairly common for the side that takes back territory to round up and execute collaborators, for example the US army estimated that 80,000 French civilians were summarily executed by the French themselves after the Germans were pushed back. To me, that makes more sense than Russia being behind this at the moment but I am not ruling anything out.

Anyway. The bigger issue is what this actually means for the war. They are talking about sending human rights people and such to look into this and make a case for it. I am not sure how much evidence is actually going to be found though, whatever side did it won't be leaving orders around to find(if they even gave them) and probably won't have filmed themselves doing it so they are just going to go on witness accounts most likely and that is never reliable and easily falsifiable.
So Ukraine will blame Russia and Russia will deny it and blame Ukraine. And then it becomes diplomatic, the west is already blaming Russia for it and was always going to side with Ukraine on this one. There is now going to be a strong push and even a justification for more action to be taken against Russia, particularly if it's proven or even 'proven' that Russia did it.
The West have already emptied their warehouses of most the shoulder fired systems they can spare, now they are moving on to large equipment like soviet era armoured vehicles but there is a limit to them as well, only the eastern nations own them and they are fairly old. The UK said it would send some Saxon armoured vehicles as well as artillery before this happened, that's not much help either(well the artillery may be depending on how much they can get). There is a limit to the amount that the west is able to actually give.
I don't think military action is likely, however this may encourage pseudo military actions and actions that draw the line. So they might send troops in on humanitarian missions or missions they claim to be humanitarian, they might send observers and they might send special forces or their own versions of little green men.
They will also use this to pressure China and anybody else supporting or even abstaining form opposing Russia.


Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 05:36:34 [Preview] No.47148 del
Australia is also sending Bushmasters now, this was announced 3 days ago so I am not sure if it's related. They have not announced how many yet though. The Dutch operate them as well, so it's possible that they might be persuaded to send them over as well or they could send them over in return for Australia replacing what they send with new ones. I'm not sure how much help they will actually be but it's better than nothing.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-to-send-bushmaster-armoured-vehicles-to-ukraine/

At the end of this the writer mentions the possibility of sending Ukraine tanks as well, or of sending them to Poland to free up Polish Soviet tanks for Ukraine.


Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 09:48:27 [Preview] No.47150 del
>>47133
>the Russian claim about the assault on Kiev and other areas being purely diversionary is a pretext. [...]
I believe you are right there.
It's liek reconnaissance by force. The main purpose is to measure the enemy resistance, what they have to face, but it is done with enough force so it can be built up into a full scale assault if results are promising.
Similarly, they probably put enough weight in the assault against Kiev (and the other cities), that if the going seems easy they could hit home and capture them. If not they still have the primary objective as being diversionary, or rather to hold down as much Ukrainian troops as possible, so elsewhere they can't be used.
>My guess is that [...]
Beyond these I think Moscow wants the keep the possibility open for further military action if need be. The other half of Donetsk is still in Ukrainian hands.
They see that NATO won't raise a finger, and after a month of sanctions they can estimate the cost and impact.
And even now, something is brewing. There are strikes done down in the south and in western Ukraine. The shelling in the south again seems like the arty preparation of an attack (like in Syria and how they did it after they entered Ukraine and were stopped in the beginning).


Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 10:21:44 [Preview] No.47151 del
>>47134
>could spell serious instability for the russian govt.
The govt there is actually "uniting" people with the help of western sanctions. They are told again and again how the world hates them and they can only count on each other and on Russian government.
NFKRZ has good recent videos explaining stuff. They are about 10 mins long:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=tVCnFnsZ380
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=0IQnNBccpDo
>destroyed cities
Rebuilding can be used as a tool to create cooperation between central govt and local population. They get to know each other, and more propaganda can be told. They can have their own "build back better" tunes.
>we are beginning to see some controlled retreat/redeployment.
Since then the withdrawal in the north is in full swing.

>>47135
>psychological impact.
A "bad" outcome for Russia could be also used. Tensions growing can be used as an excuse again and again to move into Ukraine for some special action. Especially if they'll be able to keep the military solution open ended.
Maybe the whole Ukraine was still too big of a bite to chew it, but it can be done gradually. Even if the situation remains as is, they gained whole Lugansk, and south Ukraine from the East of the Dniepr. Next time they can get Donetsk oblast, Odessa. Then more. Noone is there stopping them.

>>47136
>Conscripts
Could be conscripts who served their time, had the training.
>and it still might.
The recent bombardment might be promising in that sense.

>>47142
>uncovering of executed civilians
Yes. They might wanna exploit that Katyn vibe.
>it's fairly common for the side that takes back territory to round up and execute collaborators
That could also contribute the losses. We won't know from our media.
Thing is atrocities do get committed, without orders or previous will, just by the escalation of the contact between civilians and military. Sparks and excuses aplenty.
>So Ukraine will blame Russia and Russia will deny it and blame Ukraine.
Exactly.
>China
Btw. With one eye I caught glimpse of an article where China also put forward the idea of acquiring Taiwan again.

>>47148
B-but they have ambulance to transport troops... >>47134 Those have plot-armor.


Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 15:09:12 [Preview] No.47152 del
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>>47137
>I think expressing sympathy towards everyday Ukrainians shouldn't be annoying to anyone, I don't see how it is a problem for you
I think you misunderstand. Of course it is not a problem for me and I don't find it annoying when expressing sympathy. (If something irks me, it's only the dumb hypocrisy. Did any of them gaf about the Ukraine for the past ~8 years? Ofc not. And tbh, it is the dumbness that irks me even more than the hypocrisy or one-sidedness.)
No, I was replying specifically to the words he addressed to me ("Well it's a war... people aren't going to be level headed. It can happen anywhere"), which I thought amounted to a deflection. I should have quoted it to avoid confusion
Anyway, since you vouch for him:
>>47100
It is a dumb question. Is it pointless because the Atlanticist media will paint Russia into an even bigger boogeyman than they already portray them as? Nah. So, what's the point? Well, from the Russian PoV you can grasp "their point" by reading their demands: recognition of the Donbass, and Crimea, neutrality, "demilitarization", and "denazification". But to really understand that you should ask "how come" and "to what end". I (and others) have posted about that in the previous Syria and News threads, you could go back and read them. But, as an incomplete executive summary, this war is a denouement of: more than a century of divisions within a state haphazardly put together by commies and subjected to their "korenizing" nation-building practices; 30 years of NATO expansion in violation to promises given in exchange of the reunification of Germany; US-aided "fortification" of the presidential elections in 2004, in favour of a US-friendly candidate; US-fostered coup d'etat in 2014, followed by a US-directed purging of officials perceived by washington as insufficiently atlanticist (see the Kerry, Biden, and Nuland leaked tapes), including the prosecutor that was investigating Hunter Biden, son of the then-VP of USA, for his dealings in Ukr; massacre of russian-speakers in Odessa; Crimea voting to break off from the successor state of the soviet republic it was shoved into (by a soviet leader from the Ukr); civil war in the Donbass, last-minute aid from Russia, ~6 years of frozen conflict with start-stop shelling, >14000 dead, displacement of hundreds of thousands; elevation of "nazi"-larping paramilitaries and hooligans into the ukrainian army; state-sanctioned celebration of Bandera and other allies of WW2 Germany in west-ukraine; restrictions on russian (and hungarian) language, and their native speakers within the Ukraine; >6 years of the Ukrainian state reneging the implementation of the peace agreement it signed (Minsk II), and as many years of Berlin and Paris (the other 2 guarantors of the agreement, apart from Moscow) not pressuring Kiev to comply with its obligations.
You might want to listen to this interview with Alain Juillet, former chief of the DGSE, France's top intelligence agency. Long interview that touches on several topics besides the Ukraine, but you can use their table-of-contents to jump around. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=AQhGxsprH8A
Since feelings of sympathy towards ukrianians are known to you, you could also watch this film-documentaire by frenchwoman Anne-Laure Bonnel. It was produced with footage from the first year of civil war in the Donbass in early 2015 and focuses on civilians there. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=CWSYY4KL76E
>>47150
>reconnaissance by force ... with enough force so it can be built up into a full scale assault if results are promising.
Exactly. Probably it was dual-purpose.
>>47151
>They are told again and again how the world hates them
I think "the western world" gave them plenty of evidence for this. Seriously, is kind of like "covid" was rebranded "russia" so that the hysteria could live on.
>Rebuilding
Grozny looks pretty decent nowadays


Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 15:33:17 [Preview] No.47153 del
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>>47135
>but it would mean nothing without a fighting force on the ground capable of exploiting it
Sure, but I include this in "nato/5-eyes organization", because of the training of troops they received for several years. I do not discount their competence, although we should also note that they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war), while rus may have been handicapped by their desire to be positively received by the locals (thus restrained engagement)
>>47136
>I heard they were calling more Conscripts
It could be the seasonal call for service. According to the internetz, Russia should have many more troops than is currently using in this conflict, so they should not need conscripts for this. (Anyway, they wouldn't be very useful in the frontline, although maybe recruits could be used in the rear, or to do some logistics work in controlled territory, or to replace garrisons in peaceful parts of the country.)
>or how their logistics are holding up. This could play out like the German invasion of France...
Hm. Would be vital for them to ensure fuel/lubricant supplies are eliminated then
>>47142
>The bigger issue is what this actually means for the war.
You basically covered all the main points: these unconfirmed events/provocations are used to rally political support for escalations, either militarily (sending/using heavier ordnance), or economically (ratcheting the economic war), or diplomatically (pressuring countries into isolating the target).
Anyway, until forensic evidence is found and presented it's just another wave of atrocity propaganda. Like the "playhouse" story before (>>46960), and the "maternity hospital" story before that: No evidence of killed civs or of who caused the destruction of that playhouse was presented. Still, the media ran wild with the story until Ukr congressmen themselves put ice on it by claiming they had found hundreds of civs unharmed in the basement of the building. Before that, they had claimed that rus has bombed a maternity hospital in Mariupol. We saw the rubble and seemingly injured women being carried in stretchers. Again, no attention was paid by the MSM to provide evidence of who caused the explosion or to whether the hospital was really a hospital at the time (rather than a military post). Well, one of the women whose face was used for that photo-op was actually evacuated by rus and, a few days ago, she gave an interview (vid related). She claims that kiev and the msm lied
Same story with these bodies: we don't have evidence of whether all these people are dead and, if so, who killed them. We have emotional screeching instead. Some things to consider:
- A day or 2 passed since rus removed their troops from these locations until ukr moved in. If the story is that they murdered these people at any time before leaving, rigor mortis and morbid skin colouration should have been evident, but was it?
- If you look at other videos (e.g. vid related from Mariupol) you will notice that some civs are wearing white bands (like rus soldiers, apparently to show their allegiance). Well, some of these alleged corpses have white bands too. Something doesn't fit.
- Weird clip supposedly taken from Ukr TV where an alleged corpse seems to move
- Another video, claimed to be from that place around that time, where an ukr soldier allegedly asks if it's ok to shoot at people without blue bands and he is given the go ahead


Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 20:36:26 [Preview] No.47157 del
>>47136
>I heard they were calling more Conscripts but I don't know how the Russian conscript system actually works, I know that in many nations they have seasonal drafts where they call up young adults for their mandatory service and training and then releases them after a set time and that just repeats, they may simply be doing that which they would have done anyway.

Yes, it is seasonal draft. Russia has obligatory military conscription, there are two drafts, summer one and autumn one. Conscripts serve 1 year (it is recent, in past it was 2 years). They've often called "srochniki" from "srochnaya sluzhba" (can be translated as timed or terminable service, i.e. having a fixed time period).

Those who served as conscripts may then make contract with army and serve on different terms (with real wage etc). They've called
"kontraktniki" (also sometimes "professionals", because it is concept of "professional army" opposed to conscription).

Officially only contract ones may be used in current war, but there were cases when conscripts were found in Ukraine. Conscript also can make contract with army even after three months, so there are plenty of people who technically on contract but in reality are almost same conscripts. There were also cases when local army command tries to intimidate conscripts into contract, and it often works (because conscripts are basically kids).

So, officially this draft wouldn't change anything, unofficially some people may go into warzone.


Bernd 04/05/2022 (Tue) 07:54:16 [Preview] No.47158 del
>>47157
>also sometimes "professionals", because it is concept of "professional army" opposed to conscription
Yes. Professionals are those who do their stuff payed, and not necessarily those who are pros in that area. It's like Hungarian football...
>local army command tries to intimidate conscripts into contract, and it often works (because conscripts are basically kids).
Poor fucks.

Military could be a very useful tool to finish and polish the final stages of the development of young men. It could offer learning teamwork, leadership skills (among others), could create group cohesion, camaraderie. Instead conscription was (it was abolished here in the 2000s) and still is just a chain of abuse and humiliation. For these reasons I'm both pro and against conscription. It was/is implemented in the worst possible way.
Maybe gradually building it anew from just a small size of dedicated soldiers who would selected for the mindset needed, and they would work on the first group of conscripts, giving them that mindset, and then who would pass it further for a larger group of new conscripts, and so on. Year by year, involving larger and larger amount of people, it could be rebuilt from the ground.


Bernd 04/06/2022 (Wed) 13:37:52 [Preview] No.47160 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=s38-OigKoIU [Embed]

An interview with a Panzer General about the war.

I found his views on the casualties of Russian generals to be very interesting, most people say 'the Russians have a top down approach, junior officers can't act on their own and the Russian Generals have to go to the front to take control of the situation'
But then this General says 'that's how they should be fighting, generals should always be leading form the front, that way he knows the situation on the ground and shares the trials of his men'.
It was very German and it's good to see they still have that spirit.


Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 03:09:46 [Preview] No.47171 del
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>>47148
They are Giving Ukraine 20 of them and they have started repainting and flying them over now. But they can only fly 3 at once so it might be a few weeks. Not that I think they will help much anyway, they will probably be used as transport in rear areas and maybe they will transport troops to and from the front but I don't think they will take part in offensive operations they are too weak.

Also I found an image of another Ukrainian Vehicle that still has the Ukrainian cross. But they both look faded, it might be battle fatigue but it also might be that they just left them on and didn't bother removing them because they are on support units(the first one I saw was on an mobile AA system).


Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 03:48:57 [Preview] No.47172 del
We are constantly seeing tanks poorly used in this war leading to tanks operating by themselves with no support being taken out by ATGMs and western commentators are foten critical of this but I wonder how much doctrine plays into this. The aforementioned officers sch as >>47160 who also mentions it are western and we are looking at this through a western lens. But, Russia is not western and there ideas on how tanks should be used are most likely very different from ours and it's probably part of the reason they always have so many of them. Going back to the second world the Soviets operated on a principle of assault in depth, they would attack the German lines with formations of tanks and when they broke through they would simply keep going right into the German rear by themselves like we often seem to see in Ukraine, and the result was often the same. I wonder how much of that doctrine remains within the Russian army. And likewise, the Russian army has always made up for it's poor infantry with heavy equipment. Always, going back from when Russia first became a state or even before, they have always been an artillery heavy army and it makes sense that they would use massed tanks to stiffen their army as well. I don't think they actually expect them to survive long in combat, certainly historically they never have, but even poorly used tanks are still tanks and still act as a force multiplier for their poor infantry.


Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 05:32:52 [Preview] No.47173 del
Yeah, saw in the news they're gonna send bunch of old T-72 from Eastern EU countries.


Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 15:08:22 [Preview] No.47174 del
(859.22 KB 352x640 donetsk.mp4)
(8.87 MB 848x464 firemen.mp4)
(1.56 MB 640x360 porochenko-2014.mp4)
>>47152
>Alain Juillet https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=AQhGxsprH8A
Turns out the subtitles (machine-translated I guess) are total rubbish. There is a short summary about the Ukraine topics here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510495717520928772.html
>Anne-Laure Bonnel https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=CWSYY4KL76E
This too, so maybe try this other one (although I think is not official translations): https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=b8j0tJsKltg
>>47160
A 2-star officer in Kherson (I think) greeting firemen that welcomed the russian troops. (Video is not recent.)
>>47148
Several days ago the US said it would send hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles into the Ukraine. Rails loaded with tanks were reportedly seen in Czechia (apparently soviet-era equipment) and Germany (toward Poland, maybe NATO equipment). I really don't understand what Russia think it's doing by letting the western ukro borders totally open, unhindered, unthreatened all this time.

Misc (some of these are a few days old):
- A video shows an Ukranian Orthodox priest loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate being dragged out of his church by a bunch of ukrops
- The Ukraine asked Slovenia to remove its flag from the Kiev embassy because it's too similar to Russia's. Could they have been such faggots as to comply?
- Top floors of a residential building in Donetsk wrecked. DNR said it was an Ukr attack. 1 killed and several injured, including 2 children.
- Ukro govt amended a law to permit the confiscation/nationalization of property belonging to any russian citizen (not just corporations or legal persons, but natural persons too), also to any person regardless of citizenship that expresses pro-russia opinions regarding the war. Ukro PM says they will nationalize all russian properties.
- UN general assembly passed a US-proposed resolution to suspend Russia from a "human-rights council". Don't know what was the justification nor what the suspension entails but smells like conviction before trial
- Today: The railway station of Kramatorsk (IIUC, it's in Donetsk province, ukr-controlled but close to the DNR line of control) was hit by a Tochka-U. Allegedly ~30 civilians dead or injured. Possibly another cluster bomb, like the one said to have hit the centre of Donetsk several days ago also allegedly killing/injuring dozens of civilians. The russian army no longer operates those but the ukro/west narrative is what you would expect.


Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 17:07:19 [Preview] No.47176 del
>>47174
>The Ukraine asked Slovenia to remove its flag from the Kiev embassy because it's too similar to Russia's.
This gave me an idea.


Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 17:12:32 [Preview] No.47177 del
>>47173
Slovakia sent an S-300 system as well, the US said they will send a Patriot system manned by US solders there as a temporary replacement. But there is a limit to the amount of this kind of equipment they can actually send, Soviet era tanks and AA systems don't grow on trees, once they run out they run out. That applies to alot of the stuff they are sending, often they are just empting stockpiles of spare and old Javelins and NLAws but there is a limit to that as well before they start having to look at breaking in to the stockpiles of equipment that they themselves actually need.

>>47174
It's probably a lot more complex than it sounds, you would have to have aerial recon over the borders to monitor what comes in and then if they do strike at a Ukrainian train it might ruin the railway as well and then the west would complain that humanitarian aid can't get through any more. Same as if they just target the railway infrastructure itself. But if this becomes a serious issue maybe they will.


Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 15:32:18 [Preview] No.47204 del
Survival Russia video about prices on day 41 of the sanctions:
https://rumble.com/v1063an-shops-and-prices-in-sanctioned-russia.html
Stock levels of the shops are normal, some prices of certain food items went up - especially dog food for some reason - buckwheat is kinda missing and the purchasable amount is set per person. Import motor oils prices are high enough for him to change filters and use local made instead. No recording of gas/benzine/diesel prices, he says its the same.


Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 20:45:41 [Preview] No.47207 del
>>47172
That Austrian channel you linked has a video about how battalion battle groups are used.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=5n7jAXgxFRQ [Embed]
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=5n7jAXgxFRQ


Bernd 04/10/2022 (Sun) 04:18:38 [Preview] No.47208 del
>>47207
I saw it before, it's interesting. The Russians certainly have a lot of supporting artillery in those formations.


Bernd 04/10/2022 (Sun) 10:10:54 [Preview] No.47209 del
Now that the war in Ukraine got to a calm phase, maybe close to ending (but who knows), news now back at covid and XE strain, which is way more dangerous than XA, XB, XC, XD variants we have never heard of. Despite this the omicron kills record amount of people in the UK, which should be not dangerous at all, and mean the end of the pandemic. Ok, this should have been posted in the news thread.
But in Ukraine some/lot artillery activity can be seen on this livemap, chiefly in two regions, at Kharkov, and Dnipro-Zhaporozhia.

>>47152
I consider it kind of a small talk he makes.
That is a good tl;dr. But in the foreign meddling in Ukraine, Moscow also took its part. Russia has interest to gain influence, foothold, and land, so has no interest in a calm and stable Ukraine. On her behalf the Russian (speaking) minority is a tool to gain geopolitical advantages which lost when the SU fall apart.
I will check that Bonnel documentary. Good you posted.

>>47153
>mariupol white bands.mp4
Chechens distributing food in occupied Mariupol?
Those civilians better pray Ukrainians never return to the city. Especially those who thanked it for the camera. 110% dangerous collaborators.

>>47153
>they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war)
Well, a total war in a sense that they use any tools they can come up with. The dirty war might be a better expression, since total war would mean the whole country, the society, the economy is set to fight the war, when it's not.
>atrocity propaganda
I find it not easy to give opinion about these in general. But regardless if these true or not, their use in propaganda is obvious.

>>47160
>casualties of Russian generals
Is that high? I remember mentioning a colonel somewhere.

>>47172
They really did throw tank regiments around in WWII.

>>47174
>firemen
It would be good to understand what had been said.
>western ukro borders totally open, unhindered, unthreatened all this time.
It's good to let refugees leave, EU has to take care of them. Plus for those who flee the men of the families will join, and they are those who fear or despise Russia and active enough to do something (the rest is helpless enough to not even try fleeing). These were removed from Ukraine essentially. I doubt refugees will return, EU economy needs workers.
They could try struck from Belarus along the western border, but that is one way direction to plow through in straight line, I'm not sure how operationally viable is that.
>hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles into the Ukraine
I doubt those will be much hindrance, they can be destroyed the same they did with the previous equipment of the Ukrainian army.
On the other hand it also shows how effective they were despite the lack of information, and the news Ukrainians provided how Russian offense were failures.


Bernd 04/10/2022 (Sun) 11:26:48 [Preview] No.47210 del
>>47209
They have lost several of them. I found this video that lists them, it's a bit old so more might have died sense then.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=co_nZLOWaBM [Embed]


Bernd 04/10/2022 (Sun) 11:53:31 [Preview] No.47211 del
>>47209
>>A 2-star officer in Kherson (I think) greeting firemen that welcomed the russian troops. (Video is not recent.)
>>It would be good to understand what had been said.

He isn't military officer but a minister of DNR MChS (emergency service) - they have ranks and military-like uniform too. MChS and similar structures in post-Soviet countries are organized as paramilitary force, especially firemen and civil defense branches.

Those who speak Russian can easily hear his strong Ukrainian-like accent that is common in south Russia (especially "Г" sound).

He greets everyone, says that is you want to work you'll get one, except if you did something bad before (he'd used term "blood on your hands"). Then everything ended in talks about wages and that everything will be ok.


Bernd 04/11/2022 (Mon) 07:32:26 [Preview] No.47214 del
>>47207
And now he made a video analysing a famous ambush of this war.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=qNeXbNY3HYQ [Embed]


Bernd 04/11/2022 (Mon) 11:52:02 [Preview] No.47216 del
>>47214
So if I understand correctly:
A Russians BTG (battalion tactics group, from th 6th guard tank regiment of the 90th tank division) rolled into Bowary on March 10, carelessly straight, on the 4 lane road.
From the side a hidden group of Ukrainian infantry shot one tank at the head of the column (but not the first one) with handheld AT weapons.
Couple of tanks at the back returned fire while the rest evaded to their left, some infantry leaving their APCs.
Then two Ukrainian tanks (T-64, 60 years old equipment) rolled up on the road and fired at the column.
The Russian column got bunched up and a group of them at the back got artillery fire, possibly directed by UAV.
The result: two T-72 and a BTR-82 were destroyed, a T-72 and 2 MT-LB was captured (essentially 50 years old equipment). But also lost the commander of the unit.

The Ukrainian tactics was a classic one (was used even in Con-Air), shooting the first and then attacking the back. It would have been even more effective, if the attack on the back had closed the way backwards, so another strike in the middle could destroy the rest.

(What does CAA mean? Some kind of artillery?)


Bernd 04/11/2022 (Mon) 14:56:04 [Preview] No.47217 del
I really hope they are right, we've been waiting long enough, well it just feels like that anyway. In theory, this offensive will be a much better display of what the Russian can bring to bear, they are not overextending their forces through multiple fronts, the Command staff know they are going to be facing strong opposition and the soldiers know they are going to have to fight, the Russian logistics don't have to go through Belarus and they should have addressed any issues they had with it before.

So really they don't have any excuses to suffer setbacks this time and if they do then it's on them.

>>47216
Yes, I had seen both clips before but I was not aware it was from the same event.

CAA? Not sure I forget when he said it. Is it the guided Artillery ammunition he mentioned? They are quite interesting and I was not aware the Ukrainians had them.


Bernd 04/11/2022 (Mon) 15:31:47 [Preview] No.47218 del
>>47217
Al Jazeera published an article about the possibility of the attack this morn too. I think it was Al Jazeera at least.

The CAA is might be not artillery, but army (the last A in the acronym). It's on the map in the video which shows the units on the Kievan front. There is a GCAA too, the G is short for Guard for sure.
I think there was 2nd CAA, 90th TD (tank division), and 6th GTR (guard tank regiment).
Now I'm thinking the 90th division is part of the 2nd CAA, because the 6th regiment is part of 90th division.


Bernd 04/11/2022 (Mon) 20:42:53 [Preview] No.47219 del
>>47217
>>47218
>CAA

It is "Combined Arms Army", English term for общевойсковая армия (relatively close translation).

2nd is this one: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/2-я_гвардейская_общевойсковая_армия

>>47216
>T-64, 60 years old equipment

Contrary to numeric representation, T-64 is not really older not more primitive than T-72. They are comparable vehicles that were produced at same time because USSR had dangerously aggressive lobbying in military industry (there also was third tank series too). Although variants and upgrades may be very different, from old to very recent ones, and recent ones are pretty modern in technological terms (or generals think that they are).


Bernd 04/13/2022 (Wed) 04:12:18 [Preview] No.47221 del
INCREDIBLE NEWS!!! Rhenimetall is talking about sending 50 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine, they say they are preparing to send them and just need it to be approved by Germany.

Finally the Leopard 1 will have it's combat debut!!! And we don't have to keep looking at ugly soviet tanks all the time!!!

Many other nations have stockpiles of Leopard 1s that could be send if the precedent is set and this may even lead on to newer models, if they can get over the hurdles of sending a Leopard 1 then they should be able to send a Leopard 2 as well.

But I wonder how effective they will be or how they will be used. They don't have much armour and they have a 105mm gun. They won't fair well against Russian tanks but a tank is a tank. They will still be able to support the infantry and so long as the Ukrainians don't treat them as a modern tank and don't expect them to be able to stand toe to toe with Russian tanks and are accordingly cautious in their employment then they may be fine, at worse they are just a BMP that can't carry infantry but has a bigger gun. I just hope they don't end up like the Slovakian S-300 which has apparently already been destroyed.


Bernd 04/13/2022 (Wed) 15:22:11 [Preview] No.47222 del
Regarding Mariupol. Fighting is still ongoing there and now it seems that the Ukrainian forces have been cut into three pockets, one at the Azovstal Steel works, one at the Ilyich factory and possible another by the coast. Details can be really hard to ascertain about the situation. It seems that the 36th Marine Brigade is bottled up in the Ilyich plant, Azov Battalion is at Azovstal and as for the other units I am unsure.

Anyway, a few days ago the commander of the 36th Marine Brigade posted a message on Facebook saying the situation was dire, half the unit was eliminated, the wounded were being send to the fight if they didn't have limbs torn off from them and everybody that could be spared was being sent to fight as well, from radio men to cooks and even the brigade orchestra.
The deputy Mayor of Mariupol then said this was not true and everything was fine and then the AFU itself said everything was fine and he was lying.
But it seems he was correct after all, last night about 100 Ukrainians(according to the DPR) tried to flee the Ilyich plant in Russian marked vehicles, the ruse was spotted and 50 were killed and 42 were captured as well as some armoured vehicles that were destroyed as well.

However, today according to the Russians 1500 have tried to break out with 500 dying in the process and 1029 being captured. I think that's the largest capitulation so far if it's true. But this was always going to happen, it was not like they had much choice and I think that was why the commander made that post, to show that he had done what he could but the situation was hopeless.


Bernd 04/13/2022 (Wed) 19:38:39 [Preview] No.47223 del
(122.56 KB 1200x719 this-is-fine-reverse.jpg)
>>47219
>Combined Arms Army
Thanks.
>recent ones are pretty modern in technological terms
They even have autoloader.
Wikipee says Ukraine had many T-72 but sold them since factories were in Russia, and favoured T-64 because they produced that.

>>47221
>keep looking at ugly soviet tanks all the time
But most of the time they are destroyed already when shown.
>Leopard 1
Another equipment from the '60s.
>Slovakian S-300 which has apparently already been destroyed.
Srsly?

>>47222
I read ¬1000 of them surrendered.

>The deputy Mayor of Mariupol then said this was not true and everything was fine and then the AFU itself said everything was fine and he was lying.


Bernd 04/13/2022 (Wed) 20:06:03 [Preview] No.47225 del
>>47221
>Leopard 1 will have it's combat debut

Didn't they had combat in Bosnia?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_B%C3%B8llebank


Bernd 04/14/2022 (Thu) 09:58:06 [Preview] No.47227 del
>>47223
>But most of the time they are destroyed already when shown.
But I still see to many that are not destroyed.
>Another equipment from the '60s.
They are getting 200 M113s from the US, but we still use them as well so I should not judge. The US is giving them 155mm artillery and Russian helicopters as well.

https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/04/13/us-unveils-800-million-in-weapons-and-equipment-plus-training-for-ukraine/

>Srsly?
So they say, Southfront said there were images of the damage from a US satellite but didn't show the images so I don't know.

>I read ¬1000 of them surrendered.
Yes, they say 1300 all up but 1026 were from the 36th Marine Brigade. So if half their strength was gone before this and now they lost 1000 then there can't be many of them left at all from that Brigade and it's probably been eliminated as a fighting unit, just the few that managed to break out and get to Azovstal would remain.

>>47225
Interesting. But none were lost so they were not blooded.


Bernd 04/14/2022 (Thu) 17:40:03 [Preview] No.47228 del
>>47227
>But none were lost so they were not blooded.
Optimally that's what I'll call good.
Here's the chance however.


Bernd 04/14/2022 (Thu) 20:41:09 [Preview] No.47235 del
Oh wow. For those in Moscow, their face must be so red.


Bernd 04/15/2022 (Fri) 07:52:08 [Preview] No.47238 del
>>47235
Right that's it. Send in Admiral Kuznetsov, it's time to take the gloves off.


Bernd 04/15/2022 (Fri) 12:26:09 [Preview] No.47239 del
>>47238
Yesss send it in.


Bernd 04/15/2022 (Fri) 12:33:07 [Preview] No.47240 del
>>47238
>>47239
She would cover the skies of Ukraine with a smoke so thick, it would doom the country to Eternal Darkness.


Bernd 04/16/2022 (Sat) 08:13:34 [Preview] No.47243 del
It's all air, artillery, and missile strikes now. Sirens going off everywhere.


Bernd 04/17/2022 (Sun) 16:26:22 [Preview] No.47245 del
>>47217
They lied....


Bernd 04/17/2022 (Sun) 17:51:39 [Preview] No.47246 del
>>47245
They told Russia will use nukes too.


Bernd 04/17/2022 (Sun) 21:10:42 [Preview] No.47248 del
It seems it started.
Yesterday Russians/secessionists made an attempt on the Luhansk front, today Ukrainians counterattacked a bit north from there.
Heavy shelling at Kharkov, and another Russian attack in the south.
If I have to guess early tomorrow further developments can be expected. We'll see.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 07:12:11 [Preview] No.47250 del
Now the initiative at the Russians at that corner of Lugansk, Kreminna town, meanwhile they're approaching from the NW there, along the Oskol/Oskil river.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 12:21:56 [Preview] No.47251 del
The Russians took the town of Kreminna, Kreminna is useful as a jumping off point for further offensives into the Donbass and they can use it to split the Ukrainian forces in the area into two if they manage to push to Sloviansk, there is nothing between Izium and Sloviansk so they could attack from both direction and cut off a pocket in the north, if they manage to push up from the south they could cut of that entire area including the reasonably sized forces in Svieriodonetsk and Lysychansk. If they do want to play it that way and not encircle the Donbass formations as a whole.

>>47248
I don't think it has yet. It still seems too limited.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 12:46:02 [Preview] No.47252 del
>>47251
I think they do stuff in that area because it's part of Lugansk oblast. They'd like to control everything within the border.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 13:29:43 [Preview] No.47253 del
I forgot to mention about MAriupol, in the Briefing for the 16th of April the spokesperson said something interesting about the troop strength in Mariupol.

>I remind you that at the time of its encirclement on 11 March, Mariupol was occupied by the 36th Independent Marines Brigade, the 109th Territorial Defence Brigade, the 503rd Independent Marines Battalion, a company of the 53rd Independent Mechanised Brigade, units of the 17th Antitank Brigade, the Nazi formations Azov, Aidar and Right Sector, police and State Border Service units as well as foreign mercenaries.

>The total number of this group was around 8,100 people.

So, it's not 4 Brigades like I thought it was going by Wikipedia. It's two Brigades, an independent Battalion but only elements from two further Brigades not the whole brigades themselves, plus Azov and friends but I think those numbers would be harder to estimate.

But anyway, they have cleared the Ukrainians from all areas but Azovstal now but of course everybody talks about the soviet era tunnels under the plant and how it will be difficult to get them out. Maybe, I don't know. Probably with a liberal use of grenades they could clear it but it might take some time as they go bit by bit doing that.

But, an interesting idea I had. Azovstal is located by the sea, so maybe all the Russians have to do is blow a hole from the sea into one of the tunnels and they will flood the whole network. That will sort the matter.

>>47252
True. But it can also wait, they can encircle them and then clear it. I think probably they will do both, cut off those small pockets and eliminate them whole at the same time making a large move to cut of the bulk of the forces.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 14:32:50 [Preview] No.47254 del
>>47253
8100 feels kinda low. But maybe units weren't filled up fully. Or just me overestimating those units.
>all areas but Azovstal
It should be hell for those who trapped inside now. There is nowhere to run, no direction to try break out. Supplies they have what they have. Wounded laying about, maybe dead too.
Yeah, Russians have options how to deal with them. Flooding sounds like solid solution.

We'll see. They could definitely strike from Izium and Polohy to create an encirclement.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 16:01:19 [Preview] No.47255 del
>>47254
It seems right if you only look at the regulars. A brigade being 3000-5000 that would be 6000-10000 for two, plus there is an independent battalion(so 400-1000) plus you have a company from a third(so only about 120) and then 'units of' so unknown really. So then you end up with about 6520-11120. 8100 would fit into that, plus they might have taken casualties outside Mariupol before they were caught up in there.

The other units are hard to determine though, they say 800 Azov fighters but then the numbers of Territorial defence forces, border service, police, and 'mercenaries'(if they exist there, though we do know there are Brits and Americans fighting within the Marines) are unknown.

Also interestingly enough, Wikipedia also list 4 Brigades but they are separate brigades, they list the 10th Assault Brigade, 56th Motorised Brigade, 36th Marine Brigade and the 12th Operational Brigade.

>It should be hell for those who trapped inside now. There is nowhere to run, no direction to try break out.

They can swim away.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 16:40:04 [Preview] No.47256 del
>>47255
>They can swim away.
They swim to the new bridge where they hitchhike to the Caucasus where they cross to a neutral country.


Bernd 04/18/2022 (Mon) 21:15:19 [Preview] No.47257 del
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>>47253
>Azovstal is located by the sea, so maybe all the Russians have to do is blow a hole from the sea into one of the tunnels and they will flood the whole network

These tunnels aren't that close to the sea, so if Russian army can breach very large distance in ground with some tool from the sea, it is easier to use that tool to just destroying tunnels as is.

Most of these tunnels must be pretty shallow though. I don't know anything about Azovstal, but visited two large Soviet-era metallurgical plants in past (as a student). Can't remember too much, but they've had shallow tunnels for relatively fast transit between facilities (they go straight and path is shorter than on ground). They were not really deep, mostly as underground passages in cities under the roads. Direct hit with big bomb and ceiling will be crushed.

There were proper bomb shelters though, very large and well-protected (at least from unexperienced observer like me). One was used as storage for factory library for example (it is Volgograd steel plant). Here few photos from that place. These places may stay for long time, although supplies will run out eventually anyway, so it is matter of time.


Bernd 04/19/2022 (Tue) 00:46:37 [Preview] No.47260 del
(744.28 KB 1205x728 ukraine scribbles.png)
The vaunted Donbass frontline encirclement that has been discussed for a month might be a disappointment. The expected pincer attack is obvious and takes far too long, the southern pincer can't even be fully committed until the forces tied up in Mariupol are freed. Unless bombardment of fuel and road infrastructure has been thorough, the Ukrainians might retreat the bulk of their good units from the front before they get encircled. But what if that's Putin's intention? He gets the land he wants at little cost and can win modest gains in a ceasefire. For the same reason he might settle for a "green bus" style deal in Mariupol, allowing the remaining defenders free passage to Ukrainian territory, which will make the surrender easier but result in the fighters returning to the frontlines.
The retreat from northern Ukraine doesn't change a lot, Russia is moving forces to the east but naturally so is Ukraine. The Ukrainians could try an offensive around Kharkov to put pressure on the Russian northern prong or a surprise attack in Kherson to eliminate the Russian bridgehead across the Dniepr, but I don't know how much offensive capacity they have left.

>>47153
>Sure, but I include this in "nato/5-eyes organization", because of the training of troops they received for several years. I do not discount their competence, although we should also note that they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war), while rus may have been handicapped by their desire to be positively received by the locals (thus restrained engagement)
The Afghan National Army also received Western training - like you said, it only works because they're competent. Ukraine was always at a disadvantage with its smaller population and economy and in the months preceding the war there was talk about backing Ukrainian guerrilas - an overwhelming Russian victory was a common expectation. They've performed better than this, though it seems Westerners attribute this to Russian incompetence rather than Ukrainian competence. Russians have suffered due to holding back attacks on urban areas but after a certain point this is no longer relevant, in areas with intense fighting residents leave and there has been severe damage to buildings. Their lack of manpower mobilization for total war might be a bigger factor at this point.

Back to the psychological impact, it really will be more extensive than just pro-Russian Ukrainians becoming less active. The memory of camarederie on the frontlines, a functioning chain of command and war effort and the national/foreigner distinction will remain, and the "if we do this, Russia will attack" argument will lose strength. This won't make Ukraine a First World country because a lot of low trust backwaters have patriotic populations, but it's a setback for RUssia on the psychological field.


Bernd 04/19/2022 (Tue) 04:05:47 [Preview] No.47262 del
Hmmm.... Apparently they are already in Zarichne according to Liveuamaps. So maybe they are pushing to separate the AFU positions.

The DPR say they are starting to clear Azovstal.

The Ukrainians are saying the eastern offensive has begun, the Russians have not said if it has yet. It's hard to say right now but it seems too limited for an offensive so far.

>>47257
>These places may stay for long time, although supplies will run out eventually anyway, so it is matter of time.

I wonder if the Russians even need to actually clear them, if they are tunnels they can just control the ground above and the people inside will not be able to do anything about it or be able to leave.

>>47260
Maybe but I don't think it will. Not in that way, it might be far too limited and that would be disappointing, they might not be ambitious enough to go for Dnipro.

Yes, the big question is just how much will the Ukrainians be able to withdraw form a potential encirclement. Ukrainian forces will be fairly vulnerable on the roads out if they try to withdraw, they might lose a fair number just to air attacks, missiles and artillery.

>The Ukrainians could try an offensive around Kharkov to put pressure on the Russian northern prong or a surprise attack in Kherson to eliminate the Russian bridgehead across the Dniepr, but I don't know how much offensive capacity they have left.

They should certainly try to take Kherson and keep he Russians east of the Dniper, but yes we don't know what offensive ability they have left. They do counter attack but all of their counter attacks have been local. They need Leopard 1s and M113s, then they will deal with those pesky Russians.


Bernd 04/19/2022 (Tue) 10:21:18 [Preview] No.47264 del
Something did started.
Chief effort on the southern branch of the pincer.
I think elsewhere, especially on the middle area the action is limited, to engage Ukrainian forces and keep them busy.


Bernd 04/19/2022 (Tue) 10:25:50 [Preview] No.47265 del
>>47264
Yeah, it looks like now it has started.


Bernd 04/19/2022 (Tue) 20:45:14 [Preview] No.47273 del
Who would have thought?


Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 02:54:52 [Preview] No.47277 del
>>47273
>Hungary siding with Russia

For what purpose?


Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 03:03:55 [Preview] No.47281 del
How is Russia still doing an invasion? They look like they're losing too much


Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 07:56:27 [Preview] No.47290 del
Weird, now it looks like all the activity ceased in the southern front, between Orikhiv (Orhov??) and Velika Novosilka.
Also check that on the side:
>President of the European Council Charles Michel: In Kyiv today. In the heart of a free and democratic Europe
Hilarious how the cleptocratic oligarchy of Ukraine becomes the pinnacle of freedom and democracy. And noone blinks an eye.

>>47277
People prefer not to freeze to death, they also like cooked meals.
But to be honest the costs of gas and electricity are kept low artificially for some time now. Yearly next to the bill they include a paper which says how much it would cost without government intervention. 75% of the country would go bankrupt if they had to pay that, and the rest (minus the oligarchs and pals) couldn't afford anything else beside paying the utilities. Can't keep on being consumers like that.
Also other countries are dependent on cheap Russian fossil fuels. Like Netherlands and other Eastern European Union countries. So that's that. I have a guess why we are on that map and not others.

>>47281
Russia gets defeated any day now. They will be forced onto their knees by denying Ritter Sport from them.


Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 08:24:33 [Preview] No.47292 del
>>47277
They will invade Ukraine and take back their lost land.


Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 21:54:41 [Preview] No.47301 del
Ukrainian offensive on the right flank of the Russian northern prong. They don't even need to take territory, just tie down the enemy.


Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 22:52:33 [Preview] No.47304 del
(3.06 MB 576x576 bmp1.mp4)
Ukrainian BMP-1 gunner operator.

This is rare video that shows usage of special vehicle-based tactical hammer.


Bernd 04/21/2022 (Thu) 12:35:50 [Preview] No.47306 del
Now this is a nice tidbit. Fighters from Syria and Libya.
What's not on the screenshot, that Mikolaev too is getting shelled.

>>47257
They had time to modify and prepare the place. Ofc question is how much money, time and effort they could have been willing to put into it, if at all.

>>47260
Yeah, the units which were tied down in the north, now will be available on the south east for both sides. How Russia can profit from this?

>>47262
>The DPR say they are starting to clear Azovstal.
How much symbolic value that place can have as the last fortress of the resistance, and how much prestige loss it costs for the Russians to leave it on the hand of the enemy?
I think if those trapped inside could reach easily the public, the media they would be larger thorn on the side.
>it might be far too limited
>they might not be ambitious enough to go for Dnipro
Moscow might be satisfied to occupy the rest of the secessionist oblasts little by little. The two points where one would suspect them to push in to create the pocket serve just distractions, where they stage attacks to engage Ukro forces, chiefly with the danger of encirclement they mean (and not by the actual size of the force thrown into action), while from Luhansk and Donetsk, they move in and bite a settlement or two, day by day.
Ofc if they succeed, they just might push in from Izium and Polohy (let's designate that town as simple reference) like here: >>47260
>take Kherson
That would be a good idea, taking away the bridgehead which could be used for a push towards Odessa (too). What is the value of Kherson in general? I have guesses, it seems like a strategic location at the mouth of the Dnieper, but does it have more importance for one side than the other?

>>47301
They tie down enemy forces who might be there to tie down enemy forces. Who ties down who in reality? 5d chess.

>>47304
He really doesn't target much either. Maybe it's all fucked, and making loud noises is enough.


Bernd 04/21/2022 (Thu) 14:06:14 [Preview] No.47307 del
>>47306
If it's true. Both sides have been claiming that the other is using Syrian mercenaries for a while now. Ukraine has some kind of Muslim brigade but I think that's Chechens but the Russians say it has Syrians etc in it as well, but again I don't know I believe it.

The Russians say they are not going to bother clearing Azovstal now, they will just blockade it. So there must not be much that the people in Azovstal can do to threaten them now. Which would make sense if they control the ground above the tunnels but I don't know if they do or not.

>Moscow might be satisfied to occupy the rest of the secessionist oblasts little by little.

Maybe, it depends on how confident they are in their own forces and how long they think they can keep this war going, I don't think anybody knows that but them.

As for Kherson, strategically it probably holds the same degree of importance to both sides, one wants a bridge head, the other doesn't want him to have it. But, postwar it probably has more value to Ukraine than Russia. I don't know what the situation on the Dnieper is in regards to river-born freight but if the Ukrainians do use it to move cargo from central Ukraine to the sea then if the Russians hold both banks of the mouth they will be unable to do that in the future.


Bernd 04/21/2022 (Thu) 15:15:55 [Preview] No.47309 del
Germany is going to backfill eastern European stocks of heavy weapons to enable eastern Europe to send more to Ukraine. Sad, that probably means Leopard-1s might not be sent there now, PZH 2000s are though, they call it a tank here for some reason when it's not one.... But then that seems to be the norm these days, the amount of times I see people calling BMPs tanks in this war already....

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/21/germany-east-european-weapons-ukraine/


Bernd 04/21/2022 (Thu) 19:42:37 [Preview] No.47310 del
>>47306
>What is the value of Kherson in general? I have guesses, it seems like a strategic location at the mouth of the Dnieper, but does it have more importance for one side than the
other?

It is relatively large city, administrative center. It allows to officially make Kherson People Republic or similar entity for Russia.

>>47307
>I don't know what the situation on the Dnieper is in regards to river-born freight but if the Ukrainians do use it to move cargo from central Ukraine to the sea

Dnieper is important transport route.


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 12:50:27 [Preview] No.47318 del
(174.44 KB 1024x576 DNR prisoner executed.jpg)
(38.31 KB 680x212 EU at war.jpg)
(32.16 KB 795x180 proxy war 2.png)
(77.94 KB 502x800 proxy war uk.jpg)
>>47260
>might retreat the bulk of their good units from the front before they get encircled. But what if that's Putin's intention? He gets the land he wants at little cost
The actions, and more recently even the public statements, coming out of the US/UK/EU have been for weeks, openly, of proxy military war and direct economic war against the Russia. If what you hypothesize is what he wants, at this stage of the game, then he is stupid, or cowardly, or weak. Or any combination thereof. And if the evolution of the Russian state, nay, the Rus civilisation, because consequences of this war (if adverse enough) may prove to be that serious, if its evolution depends on the wants of one such man, or any one man (which I don't believe), then Russians deserve the next "revolution" coming their way. Alternatively, it's not that the kremlins are so pusillanimous but that the russian military is just amazingly weaker than it should be (also hard to believe). I don't understand it myself (>>47133). Russia doesn't need more land, doesn't even need the resources of that land. And the population in the Donbass, while loyal to the common all-russian-belorussian-ukrainian civilisation and thus probably a political asset for years to come (like the Crimea), is not in fact very productive or fertile (8 years of conflict has left the donbass at the bottom of various ukrainian health/productivity/education/QoL-related indices). What russia needs is to effect a strategic course-correction (indeed not a small one) in the Kiev govt and to physically and ideologically protect the loyal ukrainians from the Galitsiya jihadis, asymptomatic carriers of the "western liberalism", state ideology of the enemy empire.
>For the same reason he might settle for a "green bus" style deal in Mariupol
To put it mildly, this will not be well received by the people who saw their relatives prisoners-of-war purposely maimed, tortured, executed by such jihadis (in Mariupol or elsewhere). Or by the families of fallen soldiers who received taunts and mockery (courtesy of US facial-recognition internet-datamining companies). How will the russian police forces behave when asked to disperse hypothetical protesters demanding answers from a govt that did not react to the assault on fellow security personnel? It's the kind of thing that goes through my mind when I say "the kremlin would be walking on thing ice" (>>47134). A bit more than a century ago russia may have been just a few months from returning Constantinople to Christendom. Instead it was plunged into revolutionary chaos. Alas, if only it would have committed and striven a bit more. In a way, Kiev may come to resemble Constantinople.
>The retreat from northern Ukraine doesn't change a lot, Russia is moving forces to the east but naturally so is Ukraine
As the australian guy pointed out, it may be different for them if their fuel supplies and transportation means really have been sufficiently depleted. But I don't know if it's the case and I doubt it. In any case, while it may not change much for the eastern theater, I do think it is significant for the overall conflict. It's not just that the northern front was closed, but also that there are signs suggesting that it won't be re-opened soon (or at least that pressure is being applied by "the west" such that rus won't try to re-open it): some countries (czechia, france) talking about reopening their embassies in kiev; claims about some civilians going back to regions around kiev to check on relatives or properties or perhaps resettling; claims about us officials visiting kiev sometime soon; british military openly admitting to being back in the kiev region, training ukrs; and probably the most significant (if true, as usual, caveat emptor), claims about russia continuing to withdraw military equipment from bielorussia.


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 13:41:12 [Preview] No.47319 del
(296.95 KB 1200x1626 forced meme.jpg)
(7.60 MB 1280x720 mariupol civ 1.mp4)
(6.75 MB 1280x720 mariupol civ 2.mp4)
(151.90 KB 735x653 ruskie bad.png)
>>47260
>Westerners attribute this to Russian incompetence rather than Ukrainian competence
Fighting wise, on the ground, they are similarly competent (big surprise since they are basically the same fucking people, apart from the ethnic minorities on either sides). In an overall comparison, absence of the "overwhelming victory" is due to a combination, to varying degrees depending on the topic, of russian incompetence and ukrainian+nato competence (e.g. in strategy/intel). But for propaganda/ideological purposes in the west it pays more to beat down "the incompetent/corrupt/stupid/ugly russkie" (very low-status! steer clear!) than to push "the competent ukrainan". Besides, it's easier, after so many decades of "russkie bad" it just comes out naturally. (Also, one should beware: claims of of a quick and overwhelming russian victory, publicly trotted out by the US pentagon suits e.g., were intended to prime the audience for a counterpoint, inflated then into a huge reversal of expectations, a triumph against odds.)
>but after a certain point this is no longer relevant, in areas with intense fighting residents leave
X for doubt. UAF has deliberately used residential areas and civilians there as contingency warranties. According to testimonies, if truthful, they could not leave, were not allowed to. So, indeed, after a certain point, but there is one such threshold for each contested population centre
>Their lack of manpower mobilization for [...] war might be a bigger factor at this point.
I believe I said so weeks ago, so we agree (but let's just say war, real war, or full war; Total War not needed). But then this also puts this other statement in perspective:
>Ukraine was always at a disadvantage with its smaller population and economy
Indeed, but the presumed overwhelming victory before the start of the conflict relied on the assumption that russia would in fact make full use of these advantages, which IMO it did not. Instead, it went into the conflict presuming/hoping it was going to be not qualitatively different than in 2014. Barely a day of initial air strikes. No administrative centres targeted. Communications, energy, water, sanitation left alone. And then just riding towards cities. Russia was way too optimistic about the situation and did not engage with the severity required (it still doesn't!)
>it really will be more extensive than just pro-Russian Ukrainians becoming less active
They were/are already "less active" since they became disillusioned with russia after seeing that crimea was rescued from the sinking ship, while the donbass, which even took arms, was not given a hand until the last minute, and only to keep them afloat, not to take them to shore. Back then in 2014 there were already movements for a "Kherson NR" and a "Kharkov NR" and an "Odessa NR". Since people were burned alive in Odessa no one dared speak up before it's clear which way the wind blows.
No, a russian "non-victory" will not make them less active, it will ensure they are either marginalised into extinction or (if young enough) digested by the nazi-larping Galitsiyan schizophrenia.
>camarederie on the frontlines [...] the national/foreigner distinction
Lots of them speak better russian (restricted) than ukrainian ("only official language"). In a sense, it is still a civil war


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 15:51:28 [Preview] No.47323 del
The French just got Buchaed. They have been asked to leave Mali of course and after they left one of their bases and handed it over to the Mali government and Wagner group, Wagner group says it uncovered mass graves.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Eo-niRm6Lm0 [Embed]


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 17:43:47 [Preview] No.47324 del
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/22/russia-says-it-plans-to-seize-donbas-southern-ukraine
So maybe they'll stage another offensive while they are at it, till they reach Moldova.


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 17:44:35 [Preview] No.47325 del
>>47319
>Also, one should beware: claims of of a quick and overwhelming russian victory, publicly trotted out by the US pentagon suits e.g., were intended to prime the audience for a counterpoint, inflated then into a huge reversal of expectations, a triumph against odds.
Possibly, but it also has other sources. Confidence in Russian military power is common, even if not a consensus, and promoted by the Russians. Pro-Russian observers were also likely to underestimate Ukrainian resistance. For instance, Anatoly Karlin on the day before the invasion:
https://akarlin.substack.com/p/military-technical-decommunization?s=r
>All told, comparable to the force the US assembled against Iraq in 2003, with two decades’ worth of technological progress on top and multiple times the Americans’ artillery/missile firepower per soldier. The crushing power of artillery was already demonstrated in the World Wars, accounting for most casualties; since rifle power has seen scant technological progress since then, while artillery fire is now much more precise, the mismatch between rifle power and artillery power would have multiplied since. The morale/bravery of individual soldiers makes no significant difference. Even if it was very high (spoiler: it isn’t), any Ukrainian units caught out in the open will be spotted by drones and destroyed within minutes. Between this, and Russia’s total air and EW dominance, we will see a very quick collapse of any Ukrainian fronts, and mass surrender and/or defection to the Russian Army
>On a more general note, my impression is that the people who claim Ukrainian troops will offer serious resistance otherwise tend to either have a poor grasp on modern warfare, and/or are pro-Ukrainian partisans who have an understandable interest in trying to dissuade a Russian attack by making their capabilities out to be more threatening than they really are (i.e., blowfish strategy).
>The prominent presence of Rosgvardiya units and vehicles in videos, including avtozaks used for prisoner transport, suggests that the Russian authorities share my view that the military operation will be over quickly, and that much subsequent energy will have to be expended on putting down urban riots by agitated svidomy in shock and disbelief from having their many delusions crash all around them (e.g., their “strongest army in Europe” lasting no more than a few days tops against alcoholic katsap vatniks)
He himself got caught up in enthusiasm, because in 2018 he made a balanced assessment: post-2014 Ukraine didn't have an economic collapse, anti-Russian sentiment grew and their military strengthened.
https://www.unz.com/akarlin/ukrotriumph/

>Lots of them speak better russian (restricted) than ukrainian ("only official language"). In a sense, it is still a civil war
Language never stopped Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks. If Ukrainian nationalism isn't humiliated, it will come out more real in the minds of the masses than before. It being a civil war won't stop the us/them psychology, civil wars increase hate between two sides in the nation.


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 20:18:35 [Preview] No.47327 del
Boom.


Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 20:44:07 [Preview] No.47328 del
Survival Russia Day 50 something of embargo and sanctions.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1NPCHnIjx8k [Embed]
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=1NPCHnIjx8k
Some stuff got really expensive, most stuff normal.
That one "shop from the Soviet times" is funny.


Bernd 04/25/2022 (Mon) 14:27:49 [Preview] No.47343 del
Some buildup in the south, both west and on the Veliki Novosilka front. From Izium and the inner side of the curve the attacks continue towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, seems like a slow but steady gain.


Dutch bernd Bernd 04/25/2022 (Mon) 22:45:26 [Preview] No.47349 del
>>47328
Will things get better or worse during the oncoming months? That is the real question


Bernd 04/25/2022 (Mon) 22:52:02 [Preview] No.47350 del
(100.88 KB 1063x800 3bd---shots.jpg)
Here's some videos from a Russian girl who lives in Far East Russia and how she feels about everything. It's from Natasha Adventures

https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=mFL8YXp_Reo

https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=jJplFVLQ85M


And here's a bunch of other videos from other Russian grils if bernds are interested

https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=Do-r-FR2T44

https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=C4EA8VSZdZ8

https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=4Q8kUugfDyw

https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=NBlDOdqYiro

Also, how common is Natasha as a name in Russia? Just one search for that name I got liek 10 different channels


Bernd 04/25/2022 (Mon) 23:03:31 [Preview] No.47351 del
>>47343
The Russians have redeployed several forces from Mariupol, I guess they'll leave a screening force to maintain the siege of Azovstal and use the rest for the southern prong of their encirclement. But it's quite a slow encirclement, at this pace it's easy for the Ukrainians to retreat.


Bernd 04/25/2022 (Mon) 23:19:46 [Preview] No.47352 del
>>47349
>Will things get better or worse during the oncoming months?

Yes

>>47350
>Also, how common is Natasha as a name in Russia?

Pretty common. Although real name is Natalya/Natalia, Natasha is a short, less formal form (diminutive).


Bernd 04/26/2022 (Tue) 07:41:41 [Preview] No.47353 del
>>47349
Define... "better".

>>47350
>I'm fine, not arrested... yet...
That Svetlana chick really knows the prices. That's how women are wired, they look at you and will know exactly how much that clothing cost.
Also Sweat Lana might be an good porn name.
>Eli
>was at Kremlin, showed some nice spectacular things about Russia
>ergo she is a putinbot
The mind of an average yt commenter.
And it coincides with the heat NFKRZ gets.
>Dari
She also lives in Moscow. Moscow is basically a western city in certain areas. She also visits a mall liek Svetlana. Ofc that also reflects some reality.
>Makdonalz
I heard those guys closed down the joints, but kept the employees on the payroll.
What's the name of Kazakh grill?
>how common
Quite. But that name is used all over the world in some form, even at us (although it's rare).

>>47351
I think the prongs are there for the threat they pose. There will be assaults from them, and they'll be ahead of the other parts of the front, but they'll take the land they want to take by going little by little from the inner part of the circle, done by the forces of the people republics.
This could be a potential Kursk if they would go for encirclement. I dunno how much forces the Ukrainians still have and their cohesiveness and how they are equipped. But attacking from the prongs has the potential of getting mired down in subsequent defense lines, paying high price in life and equipment for a gamble.
I believe we still overestimate the strength that used in this campaign. I could even say overestimate Russia's capabilities. I also not sure how much strength is still in Ukraine. It could be true that "demilitarization" was effective, but maybe not.
We'll see what they have in store, but I will be surprised if they really go for encirclement.


Bernd 04/26/2022 (Tue) 07:44:13 [Preview] No.47354 del
Or Sweet Lana if we don't wanna be that vulgar.


Bernd 04/26/2022 (Tue) 12:00:46 [Preview] No.47355 del
The Russians are making some progress, it's hard to say how much and what it actually means given the little information that is available. Yes there are videos of Russian and DPR forces wandering around captured Ukrainian positions strewn with corpses and destroyed equipment but that doesn't actually tell you much other than that they are advancing which we know. That could be a tough battle fought to the death over a vital position and the Brigade that it was a part of has been mauled, or it could just be the remnants of a rear guard action or a screen and the Brigade is perfectly fine.

>>47351
Maybe, they have to break through first and then there will be rapid movements. Which relates to my post, we don't know if they are breaking through or how close they are to that.

>>47301
They took some territory there the other day and they are also sending raids into Belgorod, or attempting too. A Ukrainian column was destroyed trying to get into Russia. Threatening Russia herself like that is a good idea in that it might tie up forces but if they pursue that too far it will back fire on them badly, at them moment Russia is limited in what it sends due to the fact that they are saying this is nto a war and so they can't mobilise or send conscripts, but if Ukraine cause too much damage in Belgorod the Russians might change their stance on whether this is a war or not.


Bernd 04/26/2022 (Tue) 15:15:40 [Preview] No.47356 del
Events are happening in Transnistria.
Moldova is preparing for a possible Russian invasion and Russian media(well South Front) is saying that a Modova-Poland-Romanian alliance is preparing to invade Transnistria.
It seems like Russia is laying the grounds for an invasion of Moldova which was always likely to happen. But, it seems too soon. They aren't close enough to invade yet, sure they have forces there already but they are trapped and would not be enough to invade Moldova alone, they would just run out of supplies and maybe even get hit by Ukraine in turn.

It's about 190km from the Russian positions outside of Kherson to Transnistria(as the crow flies or roughly enough, I allowed for the mouth of the southern Bug). That's a long way and they have to get through Mikolaive first.

So either.

Russia things they can get to Transnistria a lot faster than would be immediately apparent i.e. the Ukrainian forces are weak or next to nothing which I don't believe.

Russia things making up the excuse early will somehow be less suspicious to the international community and so they are starting that now.

Or, Russia plans to start the war with what forces it has in the area and use that as an excuse to push through the south of Ukraine to help protect the defenders of Transnistria.


Bernd 04/26/2022 (Tue) 15:17:35 [Preview] No.47357 del
>>47356
>things

I meant thinks, my spelling is atrocious...


Bernd 04/26/2022 (Tue) 23:58:32 [Preview] No.47359 del
>>47307
>Which would make sense if they control the ground above the tunnels but I don't know if they do or not.
I believe they only got surface control of a section, northwards and closer to civilian settlements. It's an interesting decision. Blockaded it was already. Continuing the blockade in the hopes that they run out of supplies, and hunger and thirst force them to surrender, means some of their forces remain occupied there. It shows that they either don't have the means to smoke them out (without taking huge casualties by trying to storm in), or are nervous about there being a sliver of truth to Azov's claims of civilians inside, or really really want them alive to parade them in Moscow.
>>47356
>So either...
You only mentioned the Nato-Ukraine-Moldova side of the story. It is indeed too soon for rus to try something like that, so I'm not ready to believe it. There were "provocations" in Transnistria for 2 days (autonomous region of moldova for ~100 years, separated during the dissolution of the SU, unrecognized independence, pro-rus, has hosted russian peacekeers for decades):
- Explosions at the building of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, a military compound near the village of Parkany, and tv/radio towers (whose broadcast included russian signals) near Mayak. Notice: security administration building, military unit, and communications, these are typical initial targets for a military take-over.
- President of Transnistria claims that signs point toward ukrainian sabotages
- Potential goals for Ukr: diversion of russian forces to try and reinforce the small russian peacekeeping mission stationed there; siezing a large arsenal under russian control there; getting Moldova involved in the war.
- "Strike Tiraspol to save Mariupol", Butusov, a former military advisor to kiev
- Ukraine blames russian false flag
- Head of Moldova (a woman who has recently vilified the russian st. george ribbon, a symbol of WW2 victory) claims that the attacks probably originated from opposing forces within transnistria
- High terrorism alert declared. Checkpoints have been set up.
- There are claims of Ukr forces amassing in that direction
- Some civilian cars are crossing into Moldova proper
- Claims that aircraft are avoiding Moldova
Want to reply to more things but no time


Bernd 04/27/2022 (Wed) 07:24:23 [Preview] No.47365 del
Push from the NE, shelling in the south.
Loud music in the west and some operation of the ground troops there too at Mikolaev.


Bernd 04/27/2022 (Wed) 15:28:57 [Preview] No.47366 del
Leopards are finally being send to Ukraine! Sort off. Gepards are being sent and they are half a Leopard, but that should help bridge the gap from Soviet tanks to leopards as they will already be learning to maintain half the tank and half the spare parts will be interchangeable(maybe). But apparently there might be some issues with the transfer to Ukraine because the Ammunition used for it is made by a Swiss company and they refuse to allow it to be sent because of Swiss neutrality, but maybe they can find some other ammunition for it.

Raytheon can't mass produce Stingers until 2023-24, they say they don;t have toe required components to make them in bulk and that some of these components are no longer on the commercial market so they have to design them themselves.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/26/raytheon-production-stinger-missiles/

>>47359
It's possible as well I suppose. It makes some sense for Ukraine to invade Transistria now while they have the chance, it would remove a Russian thorn and net them Thousands of POWs if they could hold out until Russian forces in the east arrived. But like Russia they need to fabricate a reason too no matter how flimsy.


Bernd 04/27/2022 (Wed) 15:30:31 [Preview] No.47367 del
>>47366
>say they don;t have toe

say they don't have the


Bernd 04/27/2022 (Wed) 16:30:24 [Preview] No.47368 del
He says that from their experiences training Jordanians and Chileans on the Marder, it takes 2-3 weeks to train them on the system provided that the trainees already have been trained in this field. Not much else that is interesting is said. But that's not long and certainly doable.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=On7axMtcnCU [Embed]


Bernd 04/27/2022 (Wed) 17:07:08 [Preview] No.47369 del
>>47368
Just in time to stop the Russians in the Carpathians.


Bernd 04/28/2022 (Thu) 20:40:48 [Preview] No.47371 del
Another day, another map.
How serious are those attacks in the west? They were way further towards NW, but withdrawn probably for reorganization of the front, shuffling units, adding new ones. I think these are just preliminary probing attacks. Checking resistance.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 01:53:30 [Preview] No.47372 del
>>47371
That's the war in a nutshell. We just don't know.

Firstly though I think much of this information comes from Ukrainian sources, so it's always going to be skewed to make them look good. It could have just been a skirmish or a few Russians took some pot shots and then left but they will report it as being an attack that they bravely thwarted off.

But secondly, like anything we don't know what is happening on the ground and the kind of actions that are going on. DPR sources often release footage of DPR troops wandering through Ukrainian positions that are strewn with corpses and destroyed equipment but even that doesn't actually tell you much, that could have been a delaying action or a screen and those were just a few unfortunate sods that were left behind and the unit is still fine, or it could have been a tough and hard fought battle over important positions and the damage they have taken has mauled the unit.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 03:07:16 [Preview] No.47373 del
It looks like the VDV is in Mariupol now. This video is about some kind of radar that is meant to be able to track people and vehicles 10km away and how they are using it to find Azov positions, but you will see that one of the vehicles they show firing is a BMD marked with a V.

I guess that makes sense, it seems like they were mauled in the north and they probably won't be doing any more airborne operations, so now they may as well be used to maintain the siege in Mariupol. That and one of the uses they may have in the future would be the support of an assault on Odessa, and so being located in Mariupol now will mean they can be sent on that mission much faster.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 10:05:39 [Preview] No.47374 del
>>47372
Yes, you wrote similar. I concur.

>>47373
That's a handy gadget. I bet they have many other. At least they should have.
But then they should have legions of Armatas and shit.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 10:44:37 [Preview] No.47375 del
>>47374
Ahh, so I did.

I suspect that if they have something like that then the west has something much better, weather they are in the hands of Ukrainians or not is a separate matter.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 15:30:17 [Preview] No.47376 del
(84.30 KB 1280x952 diary-6.jpg)
The Ukrainians launched a few attacks around Kharikiv, these were successful and took a few villages. They launched a counter attack towards the Russians advancing towards Sloviansk but that went badly for them and there are apparently now up to 1000 Ukrainians who have been cut off. There was a video released of a Ukrainian soldier standing in front of 30 other soldiers making some kind of plea for help, basically their unit was cut off and they felt like they had been abandoned and that there officers had left them and so they broke out of the encirclement and now they make a plea to not be tried as deserters, they say they still want to fight but not in the 79th brigade, they want to be sent to defend Mykolaiv in another unit. I don't know if this was part of that group of possibly up to 1000 that was said to have been cut of or if this is another group.

But regarding Mykolaiv, the Russians are moving to cut of the Ukrainian forces around Oleksandrivka which is a town by the sea, the Ukrainians have said they are planning a counter attack however.

Also apparently the DPR forces found the notebook of the commander of Azov battalion.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 15:33:02 [Preview] No.47377 del
(39.75 MB 1280x720 79_brigade.mp4)
Here is the video.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 18:10:27 [Preview] No.47378 del
>>47377
Some of 'em pushing 40.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 20:01:46 [Preview] No.47379 del
Suddenly whole lotta nothing. Peace broke out or what?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/29/uk-aid-workers-captured-by-russian-forces-in-ukraine-ngo-says
Really nice that one can just waltz into Russian held territory and evacuate people from there or bring supplies in. Was that a regular thing or they were captures on the first mission I wonder.


Bernd 04/29/2022 (Fri) 23:42:52 [Preview] No.47380 del
>>47209
>in the foreign meddling in Ukraine, Moscow also took its part
Indeed. For example, they were backing Yanukovich while USA was backing Yushchenko. But it should be said, to Moscow and to most Russians and Ukrainians (with millions, maybe tens of millions, of familial bonds), the Ukraine (with its artificial borders including regions carved out of historical Russia, mostly by soviets) was never just another foreign country. These are not equivalent "meddlings".
>Russia has interest to gain [...] land
Doubtful, they already have more land than they can optimally defend given their population and fertility
>so has no interest in a calm and stable Ukraine.
This is completely backwards. Why would the Russia want chaos on its doorstep? Apparently "limited chaos" (oxymoron, I mean war) was preferable to a stable NATO puppet grown out of a historical russian region, but the one that instigated the chaos was not Russia
>On her behalf the Russian (speaking) minority is a tool to gain geopolitical advantages which lost when the SU fall apart.
There is some truth here. I think for example of how the donbass was supported by moscow in their conflict with kiev, but not decisively (perhaps enough so that donbass wouldn't fall, but not enough to compel kiev to write off donbass and crimea and, now without outstanding conflicts, apply for nato). People have explained how rus was not economically prepared for it back then, and considering that its economy seems to be holding on so far, they may have a point. But given the scope of the conflict now and how much militarily easier it would have been then, I doubt it was such a great idea. Such theory would seem to support the description of "tool", but, given their relationship, it's not the same as US using Kiev as "tool".
Wrt to geopolitical advantage: The statu quo ante was disrupted by USA trying to gain geopolitical advantage far away from its traditional region of influence and right next to russia (it is not just geography either as I tried to explain in previous posts). So it's more accurate to say they would be trying to prevent a geopolitical disadvantage (further encroachment of nato) or to retain their historical geopolitical influence. (It's not like moscow is reclaiming its geopolitically advantageous influence over Mexico, gone with SU, if you follow me.)
>Well, a total war in a sense that they use any tools they can come up with. The dirty war might be a better expression, since total war...
Exactly, that's what I meant, hence "total war" (his phrase) in quotes
>Plus for those who flee the men of the families will join, and they are those who fear or despise Russia and active enough to do something
Right, but this is a longer-term consideration after the hot part of the conflict ends. It is not applicable right now because men (fighting age) are not allowed to leave
>I doubt refugees will return
My thoughts too


Bernd 04/30/2022 (Sat) 00:24:00 [Preview] No.47381 del
>>47209
>I find it not easy to give opinion about these in general. But regardless if these true or not, their use in propaganda is obvious.
Yes, I also withheld any conclusion, as any reasonable observer would before independent forensic investigations have uncovered and presented evidence of who killed whom. I simply added that, in case it's not obvious that claims of atrocities by one party cannot be taken at face value, it's even easier to be sceptical about kiev's claims given the brazen, utterly mendacious propaganda it has put out before, and I'll add, given the outspoken brutality with which it has vowed to treat and has treated citizens friendly towards russia:
- Ukrainian military positions in Kramatorsk was allegedly leaked by a ukrainian, after the strike the mayor issued threats and then claimed that they had summarily executed someone as reprisal (pics). Incidentally, this was many days before the Tochka-U strike on the train station of the same town that allegedly killed tens of civilians. What if the pro-rus support in Kramatorsk is not isolated? Not hard to imagine since it's in Donbass. Are the cries about the killed civilians in Kramatorsk genuine? Also, it's kind of interesting how buzz about that attack hushed after photos of the of the missile showing the serial number were published. It was in the format and range of other Tochkas used by kiev against the donbass in previous years; not that it couldn't be faked, but still, buzz died down.
- Last week, Vitaly Kim (koryo?), governor of Nikolayev, said on live tv (the same Ukraina24 channel of which I posted before) that those that cooperate with russia will be executed extrajudicially, and claimed that a "special force" was operating to "eliminate traitors"
- Some days ago, the mayor of Balakeya in Kharkov was charged with "treason" by Kiev for accepting humanitarian aid from russian forces. Are these the ground on which kiev is to execute its citizens, as Kim said? Did the Bucha residents cooperate with russians too? What about those bodies with white armbands?
Things to consider. (Notice that these are just the ones uttered by the ukie officials themselves.)
>>47290
>In the heart of a free and democratic Europe
Pure clownery, he's channeling his inner Zelensky
>>47292
I don't think Uncle Nato would approve, unless he gets a piece of the pie as well. But I wonder what's the view of magyars towards their co-ethnics in the ukraine. Do they want that transcarphatian patch bad enough? A few weeks ago I read some Hungarian official addressing them by saying that "the motherland would always be with them" or somethign like that. If Hungary were to move in, Poland would probably too. It would mean nato expansion, though, so situation would have to become really difficult for russia to go along with it. (But I guess in some scenarios they might, considering that this far-west area was the least russified, cf. orthodox vs. catholics)
>>47306
>Fighters from Syria and Libya.
Probably bs. That claim has been trotted in and out for weeks, without a shred of evidence so far. Relatedly, Kadyrov recently offered $1M in rewards to anyone who reveals the locations of alleged Ichkerian batallions (CIA-backed islamists that fought and lost against Kadyrov father in Chechnya). Liveuamaps is very biased, specially in the news selection. For maps the least obviously biased used to be the one by the french forein ministry, probably why they got them to stop
>>47323
That's not true, it was not Wagner who said it. It was the Mali military and govt officials. Le Monde then posted an article where the French Army claimed they had drone footage of people burying bodies (when? where?). They said this was "very precise" information that led them to conclude that it was the act of the wagner group (or whatever it's called nowadays), Yet they also said that this "very precise" footage was of so bad quality that skin colour could not be distinguished and all it could acertain was that the men's attire did not match the pattern of the Mali army uniform. Unlike the wes


Bernd 04/30/2022 (Sat) 00:52:03 [Preview] No.47382 del
(continue) >>47381 >>47323
Unlike the western european govts regarding bucha, russian officials commenting on the matter did not accuse France of a massacre, they asked for a "thorough investigation". Btw, it was not in the base, but nearby, and the Mali army said the bodies were in "advanced level of putrefaction", so it couldn't be a very recent grave/dead.

>>47325
>Possibly, but it also has other sources.
Well, yes, I added a missing side of the story, but when I say that the russians were way too optimistic and, relatedly, that there is a component of incompetence in the realms of strategy/intel, I am agreeing with you: the pro-russia side, too, played "media games" (with different intentions, and perhaps partly on themselves, as it turns out). (That article is interesting. He got some things spot on, like the invasion happening which I did not believe was coming, but in others he was far off the mark, like the difficulty of the task. Was he playing "media games" too, partly on himself?)
>Language never stopped Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks. If Ukrainian nationalism isn't humiliated, it will come out more real in the minds of the masses than before.
Is not just language that's close, but in general I agree, and I'll add that there is probably something stupid in the mind of the Slavs, so given to infighting as they seem to be, even when it's obvious that they are being played against each other (often cleverly exploited by the Germanic or Anglo-Saxon). Maybe this is part of why I didn't believe they would really fight a war blatantly set up by a 3rd power. To me there just had to be some other way out of the situation. (Although, tbh I still don't know what that could have been, apart from the military-threat-based economic-pressure which I mentioned before. After diplomatic [e.g. endless diversion from implementing Minsk], political [e.g. arrested/killed politicians], mediatic [e.g. media closed by decree] means had failed, not sure what was left. Perhaps resorting to the unsavoury and dishonest clandestine assassinations typical of e.g. israel? Hopefully the Chinese are able to find another way, unlike the Slavs.)
>It being a civil war won't stop the us/them psychology, civil wars increase hate between two sides in the nation.
Again, I agree. Until/unless one side is defeated (US, Spain). But if that happens there is an easy way back to, if not friendship, at least compatible coexistence. It's why I say russia should be fighting "lvov", symbolically that's the seat of the ideology currently in power in ukraine. The "ukrainians" in kiev are actually "lvovites". If russia had the capability, ambition, and guts and to definitively solve the issue, to put an end to "lenin's little-russian empire", it should make this distiction and strike at the core their adversary, giving regular ukrainians an easy way to distance themselves from the "galitsiyan jihadism". However, as said before, it would seem that at least 1 of those 3 is missing.
>>47359
Video was published of the attack on the govt building (are those rpg canisters not reusable? Why leaving them to be found?)
- There are more reports of suspicious activity: shootings, drones.
- Reports that kiev is holding "military exercises" in the oblast bordering Transnistria. Mutual game of threats and diversions? Invasion intended to ensure nato/romania supplies from the south? Poland and Romania also reportedly doing "military exercises"
- Bulgaria and Izrael tell their citizens to leave transnistria and avoid moldavia. Some time later reports of western countries also recommending to avoid the place
- Transnistria MoD requested mobilization (apparently not yet granted)


Bernd 04/30/2022 (Sat) 03:50:29 [Preview] No.47384 del
The Russians are still saying that Ukraine and possibly Romania and Moldova plan to invade Transnistria. Romania is moving troops and equipment towards Moldova apparently 8000 so far, but then I would say they are just securing their borders which is completely understandable given there is a war right on their doorstep and a possible invasion of Moldova incoming. The Russians say that the Ukranians are gathering units in the area as well including foreign mercenaries such as the 'Grey Wolves' a Turkish far right group. Whatever the reasons behind these movements, Russia was likely to invade anyway and this just gives them more of an excuse, they will stage some provocation and say they are protecting the ethnic Russians in Transnistria.

What is even more bizarre is that they are saying Poland will cease control of western Ukraine. I'll just post what they are saying.

>“According to information received by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Washington and Warsaw are working on plans to establish tight military and political control over ‘their historical possessions’ in Ukraine,” Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Sergei Naryshkin said.
>According to the FIS, the first stage of the “reunification” should be the introduction of Polish troops into the western regions of Ukraine under the guise of their “protection against Russian aggression”. Modalities for the upcoming mission are being discussed with the Biden administration. “According to preliminary agreements, it will take place without a NATO mandate, but with the participation of ‘willing states’. Warsaw has not yet been able to agree on potential participants in a ‘coalition of like-minded’,” the FIS said.
>At the same time, the FIS pointed out, the Polish leadership is not interested in “unnecessary spies” in its operation. “The so-called peacekeeping contingent is planned to be deployed in those parts of Ukraine where the threat of direct clash with the Russian Armed Forces is minimal. And the priority “combat tasks” of the Polish military will include gradual interception of control over strategic objects located there from the National Guard of Ukraine. Polish special services are already searching for “agreeable” representatives of the Ukrainian elite to form a Warsaw-oriented “democratic” counterweight to the nationalists,” the FIS said in its report.
>According to the Polish administration’s estimates, a preventive entrenchment in western Ukraine is highly likely to split the country. Warsaw will essentially gain control of the territories where “Polish peacekeepers” will enter. Essentially, it is an attempt to repeat the historical “deal” for Poland after the First World War, when the collective West, represented by the Entente, recognized Warsaw’s right first to occupy part of the Ukraine to protect its population from the “Bolshevik threat”, and then to incorporate those territories into the Polish state. The events that followed were a clear illustration of the colonial order and forced polonisation as the main methods of building a ‘Greater Poland’,” the FIS concluded.

I don't see how this makes any sense. I think they would only do something like this if the war was clearly about to be lost, but it could be that this is a contingency plan formed up for that event and the Russians somehow found out about it. Or the Russians are making it up to drive a wedge between the west and Ukraine. Anyway, Poland is also conducting military exercises next month which Russia says is a pretext for this plan(I guess they would know all about that).


https://southfront.org/transnistria29042022/


Bernd 04/30/2022 (Sat) 19:52:53 [Preview] No.47388 del
(935.20 KB 1800x1097 border-to-defend.jpg)
>>47356
>>47359
>Transnistria
If Ukraine directs force to there, those will be missing elsewhere.
If the Russians succeed in the south they can retake Transnistria if it falls.

>>47366
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/17/the-weapons-being-sent-to-ukraine-and-why-they-may-not-be-enough
This talks about 50 Leopard 2s from Rheinmetall

>>47380
The landmass is relative. Most defends itself (ie. punishing terrain), most of the borders are more or less secure, plus they have the nuclear arsenal as deterrent. Sure they have long shoreline in the far east and some in the Black Sea basin, but the only direction not counting Ukraine (which is more than doubtful would attack Russia) is just there in the north.
Meanwhile they always tried to gain lands towards the Balkans since they got out of the Mongol yoke, they sure know what position they lost after the fall of the SU, and even in this war they seem to want Southern Ukraine. If they have no interest in those lands, then why they want to take it?
>Why would the Russia want chaos on its doorstep?
Because it is always an easy excuse for intervention. Just look at how this turmoil with the Donbas people's republics played out. Plus if no stable neighbour is present, no real threat from that direction. You see this war is actually pretty fucking great for Hungary (and every neighbour actually), at least Ukraine and Russia are too busy with each other, they don't have time for much else, and Ukraine has to lick the arses of everyone, this war should never end.


Bernd 05/01/2022 (Sun) 03:12:58 [Preview] No.47389 del
The Russians are using Dolphins in Ukraine now.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/04/28/russia-military-dolphins-ukraine/

>>47388
>If Ukraine directs force to there, those will be missing elsewhere.
Maybe, though at the moment they might be able to afford to. They would probably have reserves in that region anyway and as the Russians have not even reached Mykolaiv right now they have plenty of time to use them for that. But also Ukraine doesn't lack manpower anyway, it lacks manoeuvrer warfare formations. But they probably don't need those to invade Transnistria. If they want too.

>This talks about 50 Leopard 2s from Rheinmetall

I think they mistook Leopard 1s for Leopard 2s because 50 was the number that was first thrown about for that or they mistook 20 for 50 in what I will mention next.

But I found this article that says that Rheinmetall wants to sell them 20 Leopard 2s as well as 88 Leopard 1s now, it also mentions the 100 Marders that Rheinmetall also want to sell to Ukraine. That's reasonable if they can get it.

https://www.zawya.com/en/special-coverage/russia-ukraine-crisis/rheinmetall-wants-to-deliver-20-new-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine-handelsblatt-fp0op3a1


Bernd 05/01/2022 (Sun) 06:09:25 [Preview] No.47390 del
Lot of talks and lot of plans. When they fulfill the promises the Leopard 2s gonna be PzIIs.


Bernd 05/02/2022 (Mon) 07:53:43 [Preview] No.47398 del
How far those artillery pieces can reach? If they deployed there I assume they were with the purpose to support an attack on Zaporozhia too, without the need to move them.
Also a military column was noted to travel through Voronezh. More troops incoming?


Bernd 05/03/2022 (Tue) 16:03:35 [Preview] No.47412 del
>>47390
There is nothing wrong with Panzer IIs, it's better than the Marder

Both the Marder and the Panzer II have 20mm auto-cannons.
The Panzer II is 1.99m tall by 2.22m wide whereas the Marder is 2.98m tall by 3.24m wide.
Panzer II is 8.8t Marder 1A3 is 33.5t
While the Panzer II can only go 39.5kph the Luchs can get to 60kph, the Marder 1A3 can get to 65kph.

All in all it seems the Panzer II is the better platform and I can see that if it was modernised it would be far outclass anything on the market today.


Bernd 05/03/2022 (Tue) 16:06:05 [Preview] No.47413 del
The only issue is that they don't carry infantry...


Bernd 05/03/2022 (Tue) 16:23:00 [Preview] No.47414 del
According to South Front, the new Russian plan is to wear down the Ukrainians with artillery and airpower and then advance because they lack the forces for rapid advances and this way they are going to reduce casualties but the war will take much longer. Maybe, it could be true or they will make rapid moves once the Ukrainian defence is broken.

But if it is true it's could be an issue for them as well, Ukraine is beginning their fourth round of mobilization now and they are getting more and more equipment form the west, I give up even posting what nations are sending now, though most the time they are small batches of random pieces of equipment so the force will be quite hodge podge and we don't know how longe this supply effort can last. But I don't think time is on Russia's side here.
Though we don't really know what state the Ukrainian army is in nor the nation itself and how much they can be supplied. It might be that Russia feels that they can no longer effectively use whatever the west gives them(because it can't get them to the front, they lack trained formations to use it and don't feel they can train more easily, they lack fuel to drive them etc) or that the west is running out of what it can send. I think if they decide to send Leopard Is that will open the flood gate to Turkish and Greek Leopards as both have hundreds in storage but making them operational may take years and that's if they even want to send them.


Bernd 05/03/2022 (Tue) 19:58:39 [Preview] No.47415 del
>>47414
I believe they just might do that. It will be great to raise military spending, gonna create jobs too, people of Europe will think they produce for a just cause against Russian tyranny. Prices will rise due to various scarcities.


Bernd 05/05/2022 (Thu) 02:32:52 [Preview] No.47429 del
>>47414
>According to South Front, the new Russian plan is to wear down the Ukrainians with artillery and airpower and then advance because

It would be smarter to just quit while they still can. It wouldn't even be a Pyrrhic victory at this point if anything good where to happen to Russia.


Dutch bernd Bernd 05/05/2022 (Thu) 02:43:30 [Preview] No.47430 del
(273.09 KB 1400x910 apustaja_anchor.jpg)
New video from NFKRZ about Russian economy and ruble

Spoilers: Russia is still suffering


https://vid.puffyan.us/watch?v=ylNVcLygz2s

He's got a lot of new videos some from Georgia

And rap artist Lil B made a peace song about conflict if bernd is interested in listening to negercore while browsing this thread

https://vid.puffyan.us/watch?v=GRsWFQl_Ev4

also #TYBG


Dutch bernd Bernd 05/05/2022 (Thu) 02:53:16 [Preview] No.47431 del
(24.36 KB 350x495 CEQC.jpeg)
(71.62 KB 892x581 Peter I.jpeg)
>>47430
NFKRZ kinda reminds me of Peter I of Russia for some reason. Dunno. Same face and hair

Maybe we should invite nkfrz here. Mayb


Also wanted to leave this here. Because why not

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-tsar-peter-great-established-beard-tax-180964693/


Bernd 05/05/2022 (Thu) 17:34:11 [Preview] No.47437 del
The Hungarian news site I usually cite, Index is shitting on Russian Victory Day parade. They made a comparison of last year's and current year's military hardware used.
Helicopters: 23 -> 15;
Sukhois: 10 -> 0;
Mig-29: 4 -> 16;
Armored vehicles: 198 -> 131;
T-80: 114 -> 10(!);
BMP-3: 6 -> 3;

Also I made a screenshot of situation yesterday, just forgot to post. However the news snippets there is interesting.
First the evacuation of Transnistria - well at least the families of the officers (I assume the families of the low ranking crew - conscripts and contracted - has no reason to move with the unit).
The other is the rebase of the F-16 unit.

>>47430
Yeah I follow him since you suggested a while back.
All of his new videos are from Georgia. He moved there.

>>47431
He really looks similar. Maybe it's on purpose, he did after moved to St. Petersboro.
>beard tax
We learn about that in high school.


Bernd 05/05/2022 (Thu) 17:55:16 [Preview] No.47438 del
(1.10 MB 1291x722 C-17-1.png)
(1.23 MB 1297x732 C-17-2.png)
(1.18 MB 1290x727 duke1.png)
(654.95 KB 1294x727 duke2.png)
Also caught something on Flightradar few days back. I dunno how extraordinary is this since I'm not a big lurker, but I checked and right now there is similar coming and going over Poland, and a C-130 is flying over Hungary.


Bernd 05/05/2022 (Thu) 18:47:15 [Preview] No.47440 del
Now EU shitheads want oil embargo against Russia, and stop all oil import from there in 6 months. For Northern Hungary and us (and Czechia too actually, with their leftlib govt they just follow suit quietly - against their own interests), this would lead to unforeseeable consequences. So we won't agree, and it seems we can get away with importing Russian oil. Bulgaria also joined, and asked for exemption.
Russians say that most EU country who buys Russian oil now, still will, even with the embargo, except they'll buy it through a middle man, for more.


Bernd 05/06/2022 (Fri) 01:48:58 [Preview] No.47443 del
>>47429
Not really, it depends on what they manage to achieve. I don't think they are going to stop in Donbass.


Bernd 05/06/2022 (Fri) 03:14:04 [Preview] No.47444 del
More counter attacks have been launched by Ukraine, they do not seem to have achieved anything so far.

Anyway, to the right is the unit of 1000 Ukrainians that I mentioned before that had counter attacked and then been operationally cut off. You can see that while they are not encircled there is only one road that reaches them and that road gets to abut 500m from Russia positions, so it's unlikely they can use it for logistics which is probably why they are saying they are operationally encircled. But you can also see another Ukrainian counter attack that might be hoping to link up with them and also cut the Russians off, that or just stall the Russian advance in general.

There are videos of M177 howitzers and Bushmasters being used in Ukraine as well now.

>>47437
But they still have their Armatas, Bummerangs and Terminators. Next year will be better, they will probably have some M113s and Bushmasters to parade around as well.

Yes, I heard about the west evacuating officials from Transpistrian, that's exactly what they did before the war in Ukraine started. But again, I don't see how Russia can invade anytime soon.


Bernd 05/06/2022 (Fri) 07:49:51 [Preview] No.47445 del
(715.15 KB 1518x867 Yampol.png)
>>47444
These guys: >>47376 >>47377 ?
They are on picrel, east of Sloviansk.
But those guys on the map do seem to be cut off too. The red coloring is misleading ofc. In theory they could move through that woodland south of there but can't say from here what's the terrain actually is there and what the Russians control, either actually, or by holding under fire.


Bernd 05/06/2022 (Fri) 08:14:31 [Preview] No.47446 del
>>47445
Yes, but not the guys from the video I think. The guys from the video say they are in Yampol so I think maybe the lads from the video are from what you are talking about and not >>47444


Bernd 05/06/2022 (Fri) 08:17:26 [Preview] No.47447 del
>>47446
The guys on the video are in Yampol/Yampil, in the map I posted.
What I wrote:
>But those guys on the map
Is referring to the map you posted.


Bernd 05/07/2022 (Sat) 03:24:06 [Preview] No.47452 del
The Chechens are fighting near Svieriodonetsk now. They captured a browning and a DP-29.

Uranian took back a decent amount of territory around Kharkiv, I don't know how hard the Russians are trying to hold it though. The Russians are saying they have only got a small holding force there to distract Ukraine.

That blue marker with the handcuffs is saying that the Ukrainians have detained 11 snipers. Hmmm.... It sounds dubious as I don't see why snipers would be left behind like that particularly 11 of them, though this was common in WW2, Russian snipers would stay in trees or other locations right up until their positions were reached but I don't see that happening now, more likely they are just random Russian soldiers they are calling snipers.


Bernd 05/07/2022 (Sat) 21:00:42 [Preview] No.47458 del
>>47452
I think in Vietnam they called snipers random guerillas taking potshots at GIs. Maybe we should decode it as "lone gunman".


Bernd 05/08/2022 (Sun) 11:25:14 [Preview] No.47463 del
A new Austrian military academy video about the fighting in Donbass.
He says the Russians are facing numerous issues but one of them he mentions is strength. The Ukrainians are organised in Brigades not BTGs but it's estimated that the Russians have 93 BTGs in the east and Ukraine the equivalent of 81 and then he repeats the oft repeated maxim that the attacker must have a 4 to 1 advantage. I strongly disagree with this and I wonder where it even came from as there are no wars that actually support this. I heard it mentioned either in an anime or a taiga drama referring to an attack on a Castle which does make a lot more sense, maybe they are all quoting this but taking it out of context.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=QJiuc4KWmQo [Embed]

But also!!! I looked at the link he had at the bottom of one of his slides and found this. It's amazing you are going to love it.

https://www.uawardata.com/


Bernd 05/08/2022 (Sun) 15:01:49 [Preview] No.47464 del
>>47463
That shit definitely looks good. Awesome contribution.


Bernd 05/08/2022 (Sun) 19:52:41 [Preview] No.47465 del
Another example from questionable map coloring choices.
If they wouldn't control the hinterland in that bend of the river were they build a pontoon bridge there? They assaulting the other side, where the Ukrainians are.


Bernd 05/09/2022 (Mon) 01:48:59 [Preview] No.47469 del
>>47465
They fixed it. I think it's just that they can only go on what information they have and what information is confirmed plus there is a delay between events on the map and the map painting itself.


Bernd 05/09/2022 (Mon) 07:19:27 [Preview] No.47471 del
All the ladies are visiting Ukraine.

>>47469
Indeed.


Bernd 05/09/2022 (Mon) 14:20:00 [Preview] No.47473 del
This article lists lost Ukrainian armaments since the beginning of the war. The source they cite is Igor Konasenkov mayor general, spokesman of Russian Ministry of Defence.
https://index.hu/kulfold/2022/05/09/haboru-oroszorszag-ukrajna-putyin-zelenszkij/hatalmas-pusztitast-jelentett-be-az-orosz-vezerornagy/
160 airplanes
118 helicopters
783 drones
299 AA missile systems
2949 armored vehicles (including tanks)
342 multiple rocket launchers
1423 artillery pieces (including mortars)
2769 "special" military vehicles


Bernd 05/09/2022 (Mon) 19:30:12 [Preview] No.47490 del
Pontoon was destroyed. But it seems Russians reached the village nearby. The Telegram post says "infiltration". But it sounds like just the troops which managed to cross but with the pontoon destroyed trapped on the other side.


Bernd 05/10/2022 (Tue) 03:34:50 [Preview] No.47496 del
(186.48 KB 1169x801 KyivEquipment1.jpg)
I found part of a Ukrainian cross this time...

Also, the Russians lost Snake Island. Kind off. I think the issue is that whoever is there is incredibly vulnerable to air power so the Russians left and when the Ukrainians tried to take it back they got hammered by the air so they pulled back. So I don't think anybody holds it now.

>>47490
Huh? Livuamap has adds? I use Ublock origin on Firefox and I never even see that.

Probably they were scouts that cut cut off when the Ukrainians attacked the bridge.


Bernd 05/10/2022 (Tue) 17:04:16 [Preview] No.47498 del
>Belarusian special operation forces
Hilarious.

>>47496
>I found part of a Ukrainian cross this time...
Good job.
>Snake Island
It is too exposed.
>ads
Yeah. On FF I have Ublock and no ads, on PM I have uMatrix and that allows that pink rectangles, but no actual ads.
>scouts
Sounds plausible.


Bernd 05/10/2022 (Tue) 23:24:33 [Preview] No.47499 del


Bernd 05/11/2022 (Wed) 06:47:35 [Preview] No.47503 del
>>47499
They are quite the most special forces.


Bernd 05/12/2022 (Thu) 19:51:58 [Preview] No.47515 del
Busy day.
They crossed that river elsewhere.


Bernd 05/14/2022 (Sat) 10:12:16 [Preview] No.47538 del
India bans wheat export.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/14/india-blocks-all-wheat-exports-with-immediate-effect.html
>“Indian ban will lift global wheat prices. Right now there is no big supplier in the market,” the second dealer said.
Well, India really is among the largest producers, but their export doesn't reflect that, it isn't proportionate. Sure it will be missed from the market but it is dwarfed by the amount Russia and Ukraine usually offers.
Also we're gonna bank from this (too).


Bernd 05/14/2022 (Sat) 11:21:58 [Preview] No.47539 del
Day 78 of Sanctions, by Survival Russia
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=l942Id0IKC0
https://youtube.com/watch?v=l942Id0IKC0 [Embed]
tl;dr goods prices are fine (some a bit higher, some returned to lower), no shortages, fuel is unchanged.


Bernd 05/15/2022 (Sun) 03:01:59 [Preview] No.47543 del
(214.01 KB 1000x667 1-7.jpg)
(341.30 KB 1776x1184 2-4.jpg)
The Howitzers sent to the Ukrainians have been downgraded it seems. They have had there digital targetting systems removed these provided satellite global positioning, inertial navigation, radio, Gun Display Unit (GDU) and Section Chief Assembly (SCA).

The first variant does not have these but the starting with the second they do.


Bernd 05/15/2022 (Sun) 18:40:31 [Preview] No.47551 del
>>47543
What's up with this?
I assume those pieces were modernized with the gadgets. Did they thought better to keep the electronics, or maybe the whole system which they were part of wasn't shipped, or it is quicker to skip the training and just use them as is? Especially if the probability of short time of service is high?


Bernd 05/16/2022 (Mon) 05:50:05 [Preview] No.47553 del
Russians are back on Snake Island now.

>>47551
Maybe they are afraid that they will be captured.


I found a manual on the system.

>Fire commands are used by the FDC to give the howitzer sections all the information necessary to start, conduct, and cease firing. In a battery without BCS, fire commands must be sent by voice. In a battery using BCS, fire commands are sent digitally from the computer to the gun display unit (GDU) at the howitzer. Initial fire commands include all elements necessary for orienting, loading, and firing the piece. Subsequent fire commands must include only those elements that have changed, except quadrant elevation. Quadrant elevation is given in every fire command and allows the howitzer section to load and fire, if in a when ready (WR) status.

https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/army/fm/6-50/Ch7.htm

These kinds of system look fairly complex and they seem to require additional systems to send this data to the howitzers and the system sending the data to the howitzers probably has to get that information somewhere so it probably relies on an entire network of systems to be able to use the GDU which Ukraine may not have or have the ability to maintain or operate.


Bernd 05/16/2022 (Mon) 16:14:37 [Preview] No.47562 del
>>47543
My guess is that military aid sent to such conflicts isnt top tech most of the time. Like we sent them a bunch of t72 tanks even though we have better ones.


Bernd 05/16/2022 (Mon) 20:11:23 [Preview] No.47563 del
>>47562
It's a way of ditching old equipment, so uncle state can buy new shiny ones.

Now I'm thinking if a nucular war breaks out, the nuclear explosions generate electromagnetic pulses which kill electronic equipment. NATO with all those high tech gadgets will be BTFO-ed, everything will be useless.
Essentially a conventional war after a nuclear strikes will be won by the side which has old, analog equipment, and uses side rules for computing shit.


Bernd 05/16/2022 (Mon) 20:12:36 [Preview] No.47564 del
>>47563
*slide rules


Bernd 05/17/2022 (Tue) 11:01:42 [Preview] No.47572 del
"Hundreds" of the Azovstal defenders surrendered (and transported to Russia). Some remains, unknown how many.

>>47569
Lies! Russia will lose and crumble under embargo.


Bernd 05/17/2022 (Tue) 13:28:00 [Preview] No.47573 del
>>47572
According to Hungarian media:
- according to Ukrainian sources 53 wounded and 211 men were evacuated from the factory.
- according to Russian sources 250 armed personnel surrendered.


Bernd 05/17/2022 (Tue) 15:14:38 [Preview] No.47576 del
Apparently there are heavy clashes in the Sumy region on the border. A few days ago they launched a probing attack there as well. I'm not sure what they hope to achieve as Ukraine has far more in the area than they do. Unless they bring up more force but why bother attacking there again? It could be a distraction but even then.

>>47572
>>47573
A DPR soldier person said they were all injured. That may be it, it makes sense for the Ukrainians to release them if they are just going to take resources.


Bernd 05/17/2022 (Tue) 16:26:54 [Preview] No.47578 del
An interesting talk about the Ukraine war.

A lot of it focuses on the issues that Russia is having with manpower, one interesting thing that was mentioned is apparently the Russians went in quite understrength due to the fact that most contract soldiers in the Russian military are put in technical roles and most of the simple roles like infantry are filled by conscripts(which of course can't be used) so many BTGs are limited in size and far smaller than they should be particularly regarding infantry.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6k5yLFJOWiY [Embed]


Bernd 05/18/2022 (Wed) 11:57:19 [Preview] No.47585 del
Many more surrendered.

>>47578
I listened that for a while, might finish it later.
It does seem Russian Armed Forces has problems with manpower, and the general feeling is that morale is low. But is morale really, and does Ukraine fares better?
Maybe after Azovstal is cleaned out, some additional units will be freed for tasks.


Bernd 05/18/2022 (Wed) 11:58:06 [Preview] No.47586 del
>>47585
Also that bloke looks like Varg.


Bernd 05/18/2022 (Wed) 13:47:32 [Preview] No.47588 del
>>47585
Interesting. I wonder how many are left, it's saying top leaders are still in there but it can't be just the top leaders by themselves, they would not last long. But it seems like this is still developing and more are being released every day. Maybe it is a total surrender(or evacuation if you are the BBC).

I don't know how many units are actually tied up there now anyway, the Chechens are already in another area, DPR units moved northwards too. Troops might need to stay there to garrison and secure the city as well. But some should be freed.


Bernd 05/18/2022 (Wed) 14:52:52 [Preview] No.47589 del
(5.33 MB 928x720 terminator.mp4)
One thing I thought of in regards to manpower. While Russia can't really use conscripts to attack Ukraine. It could incorporate what it takes into Russia and then technically the Conscripts would be serving in Russia so it could use them to hold what it takes.

Also there are Terminators in Ukraine now.


Bernd 05/18/2022 (Wed) 15:49:15 [Preview] No.47591 del
>>47589
DIssapointed, I expected music from the movie.


Bernd 05/18/2022 (Wed) 21:03:18 [Preview] No.47592 del
>>47588
>>47589
Shuffling around troops. Scraping bottom of the barrel?

>>47591
Soem Guns 'n' Roses.


Bernd 05/19/2022 (Thu) 02:57:02 [Preview] No.47601 del
Something needs to be done about the rampant Nintendo extremism in the Ukrainian army.


Bernd 05/19/2022 (Thu) 07:57:01 [Preview] No.47604 del
>>47601
He's historical reenactor.


Bernd 05/20/2022 (Fri) 06:19:00 [Preview] No.47613 del
(1.26 MB 1024x1024 Erwin 004.png)
My uncle is probably going to Ukraine. He fought as a mercenary in another war in the early 90s, his unit commander from that time is already in Ukraine and members from his unit are on their way there as well. He has been buying kit, going on hikes, etc. He is in contact with various groups and he said that he can get me in if I want.
Hmmm.... Maybe. I don't really care about either side but it could be fun. There is something I am working on here at the moment though, if that goes where I want it too then I won't want to leave as I might get my own house.

Thanks for reading my blog.


Bernd 05/20/2022 (Fri) 07:08:23 [Preview] No.47614 del
>>47613
You aren't cut out for this. You were just advertising troop movements on the internet.


Bernd 05/20/2022 (Fri) 09:21:13 [Preview] No.47617 del
It can be hard to tell what is even going on like always. The issue is that Liveua maps only seems to go on what the Ukrainians say and the Ukrainians say that a battle is happening in x location but then after that nobody says what the result is the next day, if the Russians took it eventually the map changes but there often isn't a notification for it so it's hard to tell what has actually been taken day to day.

Anyway, they are expanding their position around Popasna and it looks like they may cut of the Ukrainians in a few days or weeks. However, it looks like they may almost have fire control over the roads leading to the Ukrainian positions. It's 24km from one side of the neck to the other, so depending on where Russian artillery is located the roads going into the pocket could all be in range.


Bernd 05/20/2022 (Fri) 16:51:17 [Preview] No.47619 del
>>47617
The imbalance in the news I also find annoying. Fuck twitter one liners which were written with the intention of influencing and not informing.
Don't want to sound as a smartass, but I told they're gonna take land in little patches and won't be any high scale encirclement.
They have firepower and tech superiority, but not enough manpower.


Bernd 05/20/2022 (Fri) 17:04:09 [Preview] No.47621 del
>>47619
I heard that too, but I think that the two aren't mutually exclusive. They can encircle positions slowly and methodically like they seem to be doing now. Large scale withdrawals of Ukrainian forces form the pocket will be difficult and even if they did manage it with no casualties then the Russians still would have taken the pocket after they left.


Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 04:41:29 [Preview] No.47626 del
Well that's it then, Azovstal fell. They are saying that 2439 surrendered in total including commanders and even the commander of the Avoz Regiment.

Russians were saying that 2500 were trapped from the beginning, so that seems to match, maybe it's even a bit more because we don't know how many have died in the siege. add that to the 1300 or so that were captured from the other steelworks and that is 3800 or so.

There was a Major in command of what was left of the 36th Marine brigade, plus the Azov commander and deputy commander. I don't hold much hope for the Azov lads, I think they are going to be tried and locked up for life at least if not killed(both sides seem to be doing this, trying soldiers before the war is even over. In both cases they are probably kangaroo courts). But I hope the Major gets treated well and they don't try to bring made up charges to him.


Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 07:40:13 [Preview] No.47629 del
>>47626
Only one way communication this time, only from the Russians. No Ukrainian comment, like few days back.
I assume this thing was already agreed on back then, because was Zelensky said about the ending the operation pretty much means that, ending the whole thing, not just allowing the wounded to leave.
In the first group those left, so they could get medical help asap.


Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 11:31:46 [Preview] No.47631 del
>>47619
>>47621
How strong is the bridgehead over the Donets near Siversk, if present at all? The encirclement needs a northern prong.

I suspect Ukraine's leadership will allow Severodonetsk to be encircled just as Mariupol. It's easier for PR to handle than a retreat and buys time for a further buildup of forces elsewhere with the continuous stream of Western equipment.


Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 14:20:12 [Preview] No.47632 del
>>47631
>How strong is the bridgehead over the Donets near Siversk, if present at all?
Unknown.
It was reported they made a crossing nearby but it got far less attention than the one at Bilohorivka. My explanation: since the latter failed miserably, and Ukrainians made great footage of it, it was possible to use in the propaganda. Since the fate of the other pontoon and bridgehead wasn't reported (plus the liveuamap shows two pink areas there) I assume the events weren't favourable for Ukrainians, so they got hushed.
From this I can deduce there are forces over the river, plus, they are strong enough and well placed/entrenched enough that the Ukrainain army couldn't force them into the river just like that yet.
But is that group big enough to launch an attack?

>I suspect Ukraine's leadership will allow Severodonetsk to be encircled just as Mariupol.
The question is will they hold out as long as Mariupol? They'll know they are left there for the Russians and no help can be expected.

Also that funny Twitter policy.


Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 15:55:04 [Preview] No.47633 del
This is about Ukrainian artillery this time. They communicate through an app they made and Starlink and keep their artillery pieces separate to avoid counter battery fire.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=pzAl29Gl9MA [Embed]


Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 20:23:10 [Preview] No.47634 del
>>47633
Breddy gud. Adapting with the tools westerners make for them available.
Were those Ukrainian losses 2014-17 in that table? Or generally? It wasn't clearly specified.
I wonder if this makes Musk a belligerent participant.

Nice map about units in the Sievierodonetsk salient.
Was also talk about the river crossing failure. It seems artillery did them.
If Russians could deal with the artillery that would be quite a blow.

Lotsa shelling today, even in the north. Did not make screenshot, otherwise nothing changed.
I wonder what are the targets of these attacks. Since the actual activity restricted to small portions of the front, the Ukrainians could redirect artillery pieces to the active areas, essentially endlessly, to replace what was lost there. But if Russians can destroy the various type of guns all over the place, then Ukros can get into trouble at one point (ofc Westerners prop them up with more so...)


Bernd 05/22/2022 (Sun) 01:44:50 [Preview] No.47640 del
>>47634
It was Ukrainian losses from 2014 to 2017, if you are quick you can catch a glimpse of the title of the slide at one point, his slides are in English for some bizarre reason.


Bernd 05/22/2022 (Sun) 20:31:33 [Preview] No.47647 del
Busy day.

>>47640
It says:
>Artillery - 2014-17 LI/LL Ukraine
>Analysis of combat damage for armored vehicles in the area of joint forces operation
I dunno what LI/LL means. But from the rest it isn't clear whose losses are those.


Bernd 05/23/2022 (Mon) 03:31:37 [Preview] No.47648 del
The Russians are still making minor gains around Popasna and in other areas. It seems Ukrainian counter attacks have stopped or at least they have not taken anything more. Southfront is saying that there might be a Canadian General that was among those captured in Azovstal.

>The Ottawa Citizen reported that Lieutenant General Trevor Cadier was supposed to take command of the Canadian Army last September, but that was canceled after a sex scandal erupted around him. A former female member of the army accused him of violence. At the same time, it became known that Cadier had left Canada despite the fact that the investigation was still ongoing.

>Trevor Cadier did appear on Ukrainian territory, which there is a lot of evidences of, and then suddenly disappeared from sight. He is not in Kiev and is not listed among the dead. As Ottawa Citizen concludes, the NATO general is currently in the catacombs of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol together with Nazis from Azov and several hundred foreign mercenaries.

It seems it was not in an official capacity.

https://southfront.org/did-russia-really-capture-canadian-general-in-mariupol/

South front is also saying there are two battalions of Polish troops moving from Kiev to support the AFU but I don't think I believe that or at least it certainly needs evidence.


Bernd 05/23/2022 (Mon) 07:34:06 [Preview] No.47649 del
>>47648
Hilarious story.
Maybe those Poles are volunteers, and half of them might not be even Pole. Some international unit.


Bernd 05/23/2022 (Mon) 22:51:04 [Preview] No.47650 del
>>47632
>The question is will they hold out as long as Mariupol? They'll know they are left there for the Russians and no help can be expected.
Ideological commitment will fuel a lot of resistance for some time.


Bernd 05/24/2022 (Tue) 17:11:49 [Preview] No.47678 del
>>47677
With May 31 the state of emergency due to pandemic will expire. That gave special powers to the govt. Now they change/changed/wanted to change(? not sure which) the constitution so they can instate state of emergency in case of:
- humanitarian crisis
- neighbouring wars
So basically this whole thing is to keep the special powers they got used to during the covid pandemic.

I wonder if other countries will follow suit.


Bernd 05/24/2022 (Tue) 17:25:28 [Preview] No.47681 del
>>47678
Finished an article. They did amended the constitution. So new government, new state of emergency.


Bernd 05/25/2022 (Wed) 04:28:43 [Preview] No.47685 del
Some interesting occurrences regarding Moral(on both sides).

A unit of reserves from the DPR have made a video complaining about how they are treated. They say that they were mainly students before the war, many are unfit for service and have health problems and as they are reserves they were only meant to be used to defend Donetsk, they fought in Mariupol and without time to reorganise and rest they were sent to Luhansk(which they say they should not be fighting in because they are not citizens of Luhansk).

https://southfront.org/appeal-of-ordinary-heroes-of-3rd-battalion-of-105th-regiment-of-dpr-to-their-high-command-video/

Next we have three videos of Ukrainian forces. Two videos are from units of the 115th territorial brigade, so again they are reservists. The map site I posted before is nice but one issue it has is that the information is not that live, it updates every few days but also it has not seemed to have updated the Ukrainian unit locations for a long time. American intelligence spend a lot of effort tracking Russian troop movements of course but are not that worried about tracking the Ukrainians, so it's just based on an official source that does not seem to have been updated for a while(you can go to previous dates on that map and you will see that while the Russian units move around the Ukrainians don't move at all). Anyway, it seems that the Ukrainians have been sending units from quite far away to reinforce the Donbass, if you look at the map site it says the 115th is located west of Kiev, now they are in Sveirodonetsk.

They are complaining because they say they are poorly trained and equipped and have been sent there as cannon fodder.

The third video is from the 58th mechanised brigade, they are located west of Khakiv on the map, I don't know where they are now.
It makes sense for reserves and territorials to complain, they are basically civilians after all. Not so much the case with the 58th however.

https://southfront.org/ukrainian-servicemen-refuse-to-fight-and-leave-their-positions-left-and-right-videos/


Bernd 05/25/2022 (Wed) 14:45:18 [Preview] No.47686 del
Generous shelling today.
And check this: they apparently reached Bilohorovka, the village towards the north, where the river crossing was spoiled. This means they basically have a pocket with very little lifeline, probably none. Question how long they can hold out in there.

>>47685
And instead of surrender they spend time to make these videos, trying to appeal to the higher-ups. They are committed.
If they'd surrender - and the article says the numbers in the thousands who face trial and sit in detention in their own homeland, so it would be a considerable number - the Russians could use them as propaganda tool (besides being POW or even facing charges in Russia), and I think the know this, and want to prevent even this.


Bernd 05/25/2022 (Wed) 16:04:27 [Preview] No.47688 del
>>47686
I don't think it's that Bilohorivka, there is another Bilohorivka in the salient near Popasna. It must be confusing for the people that live in that area.
They have apparently taken Liman as well, but that has not been confirmed yet.

It seems they still care about their country and still want to fight for it but they just don't want to fight for it in those conditions.


Bernd 05/25/2022 (Wed) 17:23:25 [Preview] No.47689 del
(17.39 KB 150x200 wtfug.jpg)
>>47688
>I don't think it's that Bilohorivka, there is another Bilohorivka
picler
>fight for it in those conditions.
Since they know it wouldn't be a fight.


Bernd 05/25/2022 (Wed) 17:30:11 [Preview] No.47690 del
>>47650
How much they have that. I heard there are other units similar to Azov, but besides them, they are just average Joes. Mikolas.
Okay, they think they fight for their country against foreign invasion, so they have more motivation than an average Russian soldier, but if there isn't someone to constantly motivate them, they'll see easier the inevitable by day.


Bernd 05/26/2022 (Thu) 07:05:11 [Preview] No.47693 del
Finally I remembered to check that "Swiss Policy Research" website, if they wrote anything about Ukraine. They had to I figured, and they did. Still don't know who they are but they summarize many views breddy gud. Three articles they have:
https://swprs.org/ukraine-war-a-geostrategic-assessment/
https://swprs.org/ukraine-situation-and-background/
https://swprs.org/propaganda-switch-from-covid-to-ukraine/

These are all written some time ago, this kinda-sorta blog isn't a news site, so no regular updates, but assessments of the situation.
Many related writings they have, and many links lead off-site to great varieties of sources, only a few looks shady (well the mainstream media in itself is shady...) but maybe because of my lack of knowledge/understanding of those sites.
Two more links I want to give. First, because NFKRZ also touched the first topic, ofc on his way more personal and way less professional level - but still giving an insight which SWPRS lacks -, the Russian propaganda:
https://swprs.org/russian-propaganda/
The second is about the US imperialism, which makes me wanna read that Sylvan-Majeski book they cite (when I have the time I will):
https://swprs.org/us-foreign-policy/


Bernd 05/26/2022 (Thu) 11:56:11 [Preview] No.47696 del
>>47693
My problem with their summary of the US foreign policy that it lacks the motivation behind. Or we can call it explanation of the historical background processes. The cause of the behaviour.
Just because an entity is an empire that doesn't itself the explanation for expansion, despite we can state that it is in the empire's nature to expand their borders and/or influence as much as possible. Ofc probably many root causes exist, some historical views will put more emphasis on one, some on others. For example we could say Rome waged continuous wars to fill up the slave workforce (I think it's classic Marxist explanation), so we could find an economical drive. I'm a big fan of personal motivation of the individuals and its impact on events (events doesn't happen just by themselves, but people have to make decisions which influences the direction and outcomes, there are circumstances that allow these decisions to happen/bear fruit), for example I could say Julius Caesar went to Gaul to chase his own vainglorious reasons (ok this is superficial evaluation of Caesar and his deeds, isn't really important I'm just trying to make a point).
So these guys list 10 "traditional" explanations and write some lines why they aren't true. Instead of these 10 they offer "Sylvan and Majeski"'s observations as explanation, which isn't an answer for the why, just presents how the US behaves. That pyramid structured flowchart just presents what they do when they evaluate a country's fate, but doesn't give the reason why is it happening. "Because it's an empire" isn't a reason. There are reasons why predators predate (and don't eat grass for example which isn't entirely true, some of them, like canines, do sometimes).


Bernd 05/26/2022 (Thu) 20:56:41 [Preview] No.47707 del
B E L A R U S
E
L
A
R
U
S

Even the threat of a Belarusian intervention could tie down considerable amount of troops.


Bernd 05/27/2022 (Fri) 00:01:27 [Preview] No.47708 del
If the Russians had a successful northern prong they could've been putting pressure on the northern road to Severodonetsk through Siversk now. It seems earlier on they lost a pontoon bridge near Serebrianka.

>>47707
I bet he'll still try to play both sides at some point.


Bernd 05/27/2022 (Fri) 03:56:36 [Preview] No.47709 del
There are pictures of executed Ukrainians appearing online, they have been killed with there hands behind their backs. Southfront(so Russian media) is saying that the Ukrainians are executing deserters and people that are trying to surrender. It's possible, the Russians probably would not take photos of people they themselves had executed. I am still not ruling out the possibility that it was done by Russians though.

I'm not going to post the pictures, they are in this article. It also says that the LPR ambassador to Russia told the Russians that the LPR and DPR have 8000 Ukrainian POWs now. At first I was sceptical but they already have around 4000 from Mariupol alone, so it's not impossible(but could still be exaggerated).

https://southfront.org/ukrainian-officers-continue-killing-their-soldiers-number-of-ukrainian-pows-grows-photos-18/

>>47696
Dogs can't eat grass, I think you mean fruit. Dogs are generalists but also interestingly enough, domestic dogs can digest more proteins than wolves can which would implied that over time they have adapted to eat a more varied diet due to living with humans. Cats are still obligate carnivores though(they eat grass but only to make themselves throw up), cats arguably are not even domesticated.

>>47707
The problem is that they have a very small professional army, most of what they have are conscripts instead. So to be involved they would have to mobilise conscripts which I don't see them doing.
I don't see it tying down that much, the Ukrainians have a lot of Territorial defence units in the area and they themselves could probably handle that.

>>47708
The Ukrainians have had some issues crossing rivers too. I think the issue is that in the era of drones and satellites it's very difficult to conceal a river crossing and the equipment needed for it and once spotted it's also much easier to destroy the bridge and the convoys trying to cross it with accurate artillery fires and guided missiles. So I think they might have to give up on the northern prong until the southern one can help cover a crossing and maybe not even then.


Bernd 05/27/2022 (Fri) 09:57:06 [Preview] No.47710 del
>Ukrainians are executing deserters and people that are trying to surrender.
There is a reason why deserters were executed during 100% of history. Because those who desert are doing it because they fear of dying. If they know they can get away with less then dying they will choose that.
So they have a choice:
- fight in battle and risk dying
- desert and live, even if they have to go prison
But with death as punishment for deserting the choice is this:
- fight in battle and risk dying
- desert and risk dying.
They will most likely pick the first one since if they don't die they can hope things return to normal, but if they choose deserting, they might have to hide and flee in their whole life (they might cannot leave the country).

>Dogs can't eat grass
They can. Many won't vomit it out, but pass it through their system. And it'll come out on the other end in same condition as entered, because they just can't digest it.
>fruit
They also can't digest all types of fruits. For example they can plum (although it gives them/some/most of them diarrhea), can't apple (it comes out same as grass), and they shouldn't eat grapes because it contains something that poison them. They can digest various vegetable cooked, even nettle, not sure raw. But even wolves eat various vegetation in the wild.

Well Belarus is a small country. They only need to tie down as much as suit their weight.

>river crossing
This is an interesting problem. The evolution of warfare will come up with something. Or not, and rivers become unpassable obstructions, unless enemy recon and artillery is tied down or fed 100% false data somehow. Decentralized river crossings also comes to mind, divided into smallest units possible along a longer distance. However they could run out of places where rivers can be crossed, plus can't use the full weight of the unit after they crossed and lay divided along a river. Nah, this sucks.


Bernd 05/29/2022 (Sun) 14:11:19 [Preview] No.47718 del
So it seems Russians strengthened their position at Popasna, some movements from Izium.
The interesting here these Ukrainian advances. Perhaps I'm gonna sound cynical here, but since most of the updates on liveuamap comes from Ukrainian sources, they can decide what to share and how they share it to influence public opinion in their favour. So they share when Russians fail (or do something that can be shown as failure), but don't share when Ukrainians do something and fail. So I have to assume this battle is going in their favour and will yield results. It sounds like a mouthful too big, but can they push back the Russians over the Dniepr?


Bernd 05/29/2022 (Sun) 17:03:17 [Preview] No.47719 del
(254.80 KB 1044x845 20201018-Libya.png)
It is occurred to me that EU's fossil fuel problem could be solved with Libyan oil. It is close, just plug it into Italy, and it can flow.
However Libya is a bit busy now, most of the oil fields are cockblocked by LNA and the Russians. The latter cleverly expands her influence in the turmoil of the Sahel.

Here's an article from January:
https://english.alarabiya.net/business/energy/2022/01/10/Libya-s-oil-export-woes-deepen-as-weather-takes-out-more-ports
But this guy has nice maps, from Petroleum Economist, the latest is from May 23, so quite fresh:
https://nitter.net/reportingLibya


Bernd 05/30/2022 (Mon) 02:01:46 [Preview] No.47720 del
>>47718
Look like the attack failed, they sometimes also do mention attacks but just say that it didn't fail it caused Russia casualties or something like that.

According to uawardata the Ukrainians have overwhelming forces in that area.

>>47719
It could cause a new phase in that war, Russia is going to be spread pretty thin right now so it would be a good time to do something there(although the issue is that France actually backs the LNA as well). There is talk of a new Turkish push in Syria as well, to link up the two portions they have taken already. They have said as much themselves and there are convoys of Turkish equipment heading to Syria.


Bernd 05/30/2022 (Mon) 08:35:17 [Preview] No.47721 del
>>47720
Libya is a giant clusterfuck that's for sure.
I was reading about where the EU's gonna buy her oil. Because no Russia, Norway can give just so much, no Libya (less and less export from there), Iran is embargoed, Venezuela is shut down, due to "go green and renewable" bs no investors for Middle Eastern oil extraction... it seems the US is stepping in, but prices rise higher and higher. Someone gonna make a bank.
It's really funny reading an article in Hungarian paper that how horrible this pesky Orbán don't want to sign oil embargo, and then reading all the crying about oil crisis in the next.

I'm taking a look at largest oil fields/reserves of the world, ofc Middle East is leading the list (Iraq, UAE, Saudi, Kuwait... ). Then comes Iran. After that I can't judge the order but the largest ones are China, Mexico, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, US and Russia. Further down the list comes countries like Brazil, Libya, Azerbaijan, Canada, Norway, various African countries (Ghana, Angola, Nigeria), and maybe even UK is on the list still.
Btw in 2019 on the Great Plains we also found a quite large field, which could essentially double our production. The "large" have to be but between apostrophes, since there is no way we could produce enough to set us on the path of self-sufficiency.


Bernd 05/31/2022 (Tue) 07:23:01 [Preview] No.47723 del
New sanctions was introduced by the EU:
- they block Sberbank from SWIFT
- ban three large Russian broadcast company
- sanction individuals responsible for war crimes
- oil embargo
I find it interesting that someone can be war criminal even before determined if any war crimes happened, and if those people are really responsible for war crimes. So essentially punishing before found guilty without any court judging them, or any court decided anything. But this is how it goes since this war crime/war criminal term was invented. Good excuse, sounds well for the populace.
Now oil embargo, because this will reach into the populace's pocket.
They cut 2/3's of all oil import immediately (arriving on tankers), and by the end of the year they'll go up to 90%. Orbán said this is good news for us, since we got exemption. But it doesn't really seem like that if they go to 90%. But maybe comparing our consumption, maybe that 10% is us (perhaps even less). What is known however that Germany and Poland gets most of the oil arriving via pipes, and they'll severe those ties by the end of the year, so that is surely adds towards the 90% goal.
Btw the Czechs and Northern Hungarians are gonna get fucked in this hard, Bulgaria (as noted earlier) also had reservations about the issue. There is an interesting line in the article below:
>The Czech Republic was granted an 18-month exception from a ban on the resale of oil products.
>resale
They sell Russian oil to other countries?
Russian gas is still a question, since it's just about oil. But not having oil will raise gas prices too.
https://www.politico.eu/article/orban-hungary-eu-oil-ban-exempt-euco/


Bernd 05/31/2022 (Tue) 07:28:53 [Preview] No.47724 del
Russian troops gained a foothold in Sievierodonetsk. Srs fighting are going on elsewhere too.

This one is curious:
>Ukraine has asked the US for multiple-launch rockets
>United States will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia,
>The US has provided thousands of portable Stinger anti-aircraft and Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukrainian forces as well as advanced drones and field artillery.
Well these can reach very well into Russia...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/30/biden-us-will-not-send-ukraine-rockets-that-can-reach-russia


Bernd 05/31/2022 (Tue) 13:06:11 [Preview] No.47725 del
Much gains in the town.
However in the west it has a large factory yard. I'm not sure how this looks like, and if it could be use similarly as Azovstal.
Then comes the Donets river, the same Russians failed to cross downstream. Or rather they were denied by Ukro artillery as we saw.
And then another town Lisichansk (or how it is written).
Last bite of Lugansk oblast, but will be quite chewy.


cont. Bernd 05/31/2022 (Tue) 19:16:39 [Preview] No.47726 del
(617.61 KB 677x921 putins-fault.png)
>>47723
Fuel crisis will come to Europe this year:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/IEA-Current-Energy-Crisis-Is-Much-Bigger-Than-1970s-Oil-Crunch.html

It's probably has nothing to do with the voluntary decision of the EU to embargo Russian oil ofc. Putin literally forced them to do. He stood over them in Brussels, a bunch of Chekists behind him with submachineguns, and beat them with kamcha until they bled and gave up resistance.

Srsly. Why not just declare war on Russia? I can read articles and tweets all day about how easy to beat Russia, how they fail at every corner, how few forces they have. So those countries who don't have nuclear weapons can declare war on Russia, The NATO don't have to lift a finger, article 5 can only be invoked if a NATO country gets attacked, not if a NATO country attacks. France do this all the time. Anyone, really, who wants to end this war quick should declare war and beat them. Germany, a country with population of 80 million, just can spare couple hundred thousand troops for the good cause.


Bernd 06/01/2022 (Wed) 03:16:57 [Preview] No.47727 del
>>47725
They are saying the whole city has fallen now(I guess they mean excluding the industrial plant), It fell far faster than I thought it would but it might be that the Ukrainians had only left a small force there which makes sense as they did also blow the bridges so resupplying large forces would be hard.

Also, a Bushmaster was killed... Sad, they were not made for such a dangerous world.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1vYxTQWHi6w [Embed]

I could only find this link on Youtube, well it has the footage at least.


Bernd 06/01/2022 (Wed) 07:20:05 [Preview] No.47728 del
>>47727
>Sad, they were not made for such a dangerous world.
True. Their ultimate purpose is looking good in youtube videos.


Bernd 06/01/2022 (Wed) 22:04:04 [Preview] No.47736 del
(601.13 KB 1189x683 Lyman June 2nd.png)
ISW says the Russians are drawing on Belarusian equipment to replenish their losses, while Ukrainians are already retreating from Severodonetsk. They still regard the "Kherson counteroffensive" as important.

Looking at the map, the Lyman-Sloviansk road seems important. Apparently the Russians couldn't exploit their momentum to get a bridgehead.

Meanwhile, there's talk of a new Turkish operation in northern Syria. Certainly related with Erdogan's relations with NATO and Russia.


Bernd 06/02/2022 (Thu) 04:26:31 [Preview] No.47738 del
It's in ENGLISH now!!!

https://youtube.com/watch?v=RpC1kXhW2Lw [Embed]


Bernd 06/02/2022 (Thu) 07:28:46 [Preview] No.47739 del
>>47736
>Lyman-Sloviansk road seems important
Road and railroad yes.
Also they might wanna secure bridges over the Donets. Ukrainians are blowing them up.
>new Turkish operation in northern Syria
I think I saw that mentioned somewhere.

>>47738
Maybe they realized we are watching them videos.


Bernd 06/02/2022 (Thu) 17:52:19 [Preview] No.47741 del
EU wanted to put patriarch Kirill onto the shitlist, but Orbán said we're gonna veto.
https://index.hu/belfold/2022/05/12/orban-viktor-szir-patriarka-latogatas-karmelita-kolostor/

In another news, apparently Biden has no problems with sending MQ-1C drones that can be equipped with Hellfire rockets. Which in theory also can strike into Russia. Weird.


Bernd 06/02/2022 (Thu) 18:22:59 [Preview] No.47742 del
>>47738
Very informative.
According to that Russians has no foothold over the Donets in the region of the pocket.
Too bad he doesn't say much about the attrition, its effect on the fight.
The breakthrough with the echelons at Popasna is a classic move. They started it on May 5th, over a month ago, for me it seems events are sped up last week.
Also adaptation. Russians tried the front on several places until one let them in.
>hold them at the Dnepr
That would be a failure. But how would the war end? If the Russians could take Lugansk and Donetsk, plus Zaporozhia oblast (let's say Ukrainians would let them take literally everything east from the Dnepr, liek Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov etc), they could sit on their laurels and consider it done. But they can't finish a war unilaterally, Ukraine also have to agree on it. But Ukraine stuffed by the west can continue at least with bombardment, and with small unit incursions, skirmishes.
Hmm he confirmed Ukrainian units breaking down morally.
And now I understand the MLR request towards USA.
All in all lots of topics and questions he addressed. Thanks Colonel Reisner.


Dutch bernd Bernd 06/03/2022 (Fri) 03:17:29 [Preview] No.47744 del
>>47741
>In another news, apparently Biden has no problems with sending MQ-1C drones that can be equipped with Hellfire rockets. Which in theory also can strike into Russia. Weird.

Why can't send liek a piece treaty or something?


Bernd 06/03/2022 (Fri) 03:18:38 [Preview] No.47745 del
>>47744
>piece treaty
*peace treaty


Bernd 06/03/2022 (Fri) 04:08:18 [Preview] No.47756 del
>>47742
Russia has a foothold over the Dniper anyway, Ukraine has to deal with that if they truly want to form a line there. But then Russia could also just invade form Belorussia again.

He also said they have sent 7 Territorial brigades to the region. On one hand that's quite substantial and could hinder Russia but on the other hand it's likely they are one of the main sources of poor moral and certainly they will be in the future.


Bernd 06/03/2022 (Fri) 08:51:25 [Preview] No.47760 del
Yesterday this looked the same. Growing pressure?

>>47756
Yes they sent territorial brigades as the reserve. Probably the first liners are wore down.
>they are one of the main sources of poor moral
Definitely.
Also remember vidrel? These guys and the other volunteers are fighting somewhere. Probably in those territorial brigades. Those were most likely "empty" units with skeleton crew and they got refilled with civvies.


Bernd 06/04/2022 (Sat) 04:02:05 [Preview] No.47774 del
(84.88 MB 1280x720 SEVE.mp4)
>>47760
There are foreigners in the Sveirodoestsk industrial area as well. It kind of does feel like they might be cannon fodder if they are being sent there. There are a few Australians in this video as well.


Bernd 06/04/2022 (Sat) 13:03:03 [Preview] No.47776 del
>>47774
That's the thing with fighting against the Russians, it is easy to think you are on the right side of history. And poor blokes no matter what happens to them it'll just reinforce this belief in them.
No matter on what side you are on, if you fight you were either forced or played like fool.

What would happen if whole Ukraine was become part of Russia? Ethnically nothing. Russia is a multi-ethnic nation all kinds of folks living there. Just look at them pesky Chechens. Are they forcefully Russified? Ukrainians would do just fine. Now geopolitically it would be a different situation.
But let's see the EU. There many leading voices say countries should be abolished, only EU should exist. This is taking away sovereignty from the member states. Why this doesn't hurts them, just the loss of Ukrainian sovereignty.
Most of those faggots who sentimentally cry due to the patriotism of Ukrainians would flee this country when she would need them if attacked. Hypocrites.


Dutch bernd Bernd 06/04/2022 (Sat) 20:24:34 [Preview] No.47779 del
>>47776
Russia kinda ruined any good will they had with the invasion. It's pretty hard to convince people to like you when you loot their houses and kill their friends and neighbors? The few people I know from there are still pretty scared over everything.



>What would happen if whole Ukraine was become part of Russia?
Probably low wages. Mayb they don't want a repeat of the USSR days.


Bernd 06/05/2022 (Sun) 09:26:28 [Preview] No.47791 del
>>47779
I'm not sure what I should be convinced of. I'm aware people are getting harmed, dying, lives getting ruined, homes destroyed. I also fear for Bernds there and I hope they'll be okay.
But all these are business as usual on our globe and in history. There is no nation or folk whom did not do really bad things against others and not suffered really bad things from others. And frankly some nations did really bad things to themselves (leik 30 years war) as well.
What we should really see that now in the West politicians who want to abolish nations and countries now stuffing Ukraine with money and weapons so it can fight for her soil and national sovereignty. That journalists whom are the voice of such people who would abolish nations and countries, now manipulate similarly thinking people to feel enthusiastic about Ukrainian sovereignty and the sanctity of Ukrainian national borders, to feel for their patriotism, and to support such measures against Russia, that harms even themselves. Meanwhile all this isn't done in the interest of the Ukrainian people, because they won't win this war ever. All the effort is done to prolong the war, or even make it a perpetual crisis. And this will harm Ukrainians more. And it is done to make certain people more rich and powerful (many companies earn big on the inflation, while it makes people poorer), and a certain government (USian) more influential.
>Probably low wages.
Ukraine has the lowest wages in Europe, not counting Moldova perhaps.
You follow NFKRZ. He points out that in Russia they have a disparity of wages of certain regions, cities. Most noticeably in Moscow people can get wages that compare to Western European ones, although it is sames with prices. People living in Russia has the chance to earn quite well.
In Ukraine people has no such chance. If they were in the EU, they could work in Paris or Berlin or Amsterdam, in 16 hours as dishwashers and earn a good wage. But they aren't in the EU. They just a corrupt shithole with oligarchs exploiting the bydlo. There are foreign workers in the EU tho. But it's different than being an EU citizen.


Bernd 06/05/2022 (Sun) 09:48:33 [Preview] No.47793 del
Busy front today. I guess Russians are pushing hard for results. Or maybe they find the resistance softer and want to exploit the chance.
A ground attack in the West north of Kherson was initiated as well by them.


Bernd 06/06/2022 (Mon) 07:15:31 [Preview] No.47804 del
>>47803
That could be potentially interesting but I'm afraid the public won't get much details about how they fare.
>Asspie missiles
Sounds good.
>Spain will train the Ukraine soldiers to operate these tanks. The training will be conducted by Spanish soldiers deployed in Latvia,
So Ukrainian soldiers will travel abroad to get that training.
This is a curious situation. Let's assume training for other weapon systems are also conducted abroad, in EU countries. This is a rare opportunity for those soldiers who rather not want to participate in the war and plan to desert. I assume to prevent such things they:
1. send reliable troops;
2. EU countries give out deserters to Ukrainian authorities.
The latter means that they probably give out those who were deserted from the front, and were lucky enough to somehow reach neighbouring countries. Maybe they even go that far that send back men who weren't soldiers but in that age bracket that they can be called up for service.


Bernd 06/06/2022 (Mon) 22:32:04 [Preview] No.47807 del
>>47791
>Most noticeably in Moscow people can get wages that compare to Western European ones, although it is sames with prices. People living in Russia has the chance to earn quite well.
>In Ukraine people has no such chance. If they were in the EU, they could work in Paris or Berlin or Amsterdam, in 16 hours as dishwashers and earn a good wage.

They have Kiev where wages also pretty high compared to other country. I guess difference in real income between average Kiev and Moscow dweller isn't that big if housing (rent) prices would be taken in account. It is hard to compare this because statistics is pretty flawed (there are still tremendous amount of unofficial wages in both countries), but I guess Kiev is something like Sankt-Peterburg or such.

Statistics about countryside is also hard to compare, but looks like Ukrainian one isn't much different than "rich" Russian regions like Krasnodar/Voronezh. At least it isn't overly depressive. As an anecdotal evidence, one neighbor of my relatives from southern Russia worked in Donetsk in 2010 and was very excited about city. He thought that it is much better than place where he lived. They even had water 24/7 compared to his home city.

>>47803
>NOW!!!
>tanks that have been stored for a decade in a logistics base

Can they even move without months of repairs?


Bernd 06/07/2022 (Tue) 01:52:02 [Preview] No.47809 del
>>47804
Oh we'll know about them. It's going to be like the Turks in Northern Syria all over again.

>>47807
Well I didn't literally mean right now....

But yes that is an issue, they will have to be refurbished. But then it will take a while to train the crews to operate them anyway, so it may be that by the time they get trained on them they will be ready for combat.


Bernd 06/07/2022 (Tue) 08:18:21 [Preview] No.47812 del
>>47811
>inb4 over 90% voted to join


Bernd 06/07/2022 (Tue) 10:20:18 [Preview] No.47814 del
A lot of heavy fighting has been going on in Severnodonetsk. The Russians took most of the city, then Ukraine announced a counter attack and some Ukrainians had even said that most of the city had been retaken, but this was proven to be false by the Ukrainians themselves(or at least a Ukrainian journalist). But regardless there has been heavy fighting in the area and we know that many foreign units have been sent there, I would assume that these foreigners would be treated like shock troops and sent to fight where the battle was the most important.

A reasonable assumption would have been that the Ukrainians would leave the city, the Brazilian said as much and even the military analyst from UAwardata did, this is from his report from the 27th of may.

>Ukrainian forces around Severnodonetsk are likely in the process of withdrawing to form a new line from Sivers'k to Bakhmut.

This does however not seem to be the case.
They seemed to let the Russians take the city initially and then they countered, I think politics are at play here. Militarily it's a bad situation and makes sense to withdraw and that's probably what the plan was until political interference, it reminds me of Hitler in WW2(or the Soviet Union in Kiev).

But to be fair to them, this is a different situation to Germany's. Germany was outnumbered, manpower was at it's limit and no help was going to come for Germany and the longer the war went on the worse it was going to get, this is not the case for Ukraine. It makes some sense to hold every inch of ground for as long as possible as Ukrainian losses can in theory be made up for by western nations and this buys time for more soldiers to be mobilised and trained. On top of that they have to make it look like they are fighting as hard as they can to reassure the west, the west won't back a retreating army.


Bernd 06/07/2022 (Tue) 10:51:07 [Preview] No.47815 del
>>47814
We already had articles:
>will be Sieverodonetsk the next Azovstal?
and I assume western media also had similar because ours just copies them subserviently. So western audience is already getting prepared of hearing the latest heroics about the tenacity of surrounded Ukrainians. Maybe they get the heroics of surrounded foreigners, Anglos.
I think Zelensky's American advisors doesn't care about military situation, and what would be operationally sound. Strategically what they need is results for propaganda. To keep the support of the western populace, so they can keep policies on, keep the embargo and the rest, and whatever else is in the pipes already.


Bernd 06/07/2022 (Tue) 20:28:15 [Preview] No.47817 del
>>47807
So essentially nothing would change, except people would get their wage in rubles.
They could continue on with their life. Occasionally do some meaningless voting in elections (as they do now).


Bernd 06/07/2022 (Tue) 21:59:33 [Preview] No.47818 del
>>47817
>So essentially nothing would change
>They could continue on with their life.

It is hard to predict how economic situation will be because big political changes always bring economic ones. Maybe nothing would change if everything happened magically in one minute in 2010, although even that scenario may lead to different outcomes depending on how governing elites will be shuffled.

But overall Ukrainian pre-war economics had positive tendencies in past. Financial situation of average commoner was on par with average Russian, but state had much less money. Russia has extreme incomes from resources export (oil, gas and raw materials) while Ukraine has only agricultural sector and some metallurgy.

That means that system may be more efficient for average citizen. I don't know what is main reason of this, maybe lack of state power that leads to less extortion of money by government and government-related entities. Maybe this is also a reason why they have no such big income disparity in regions like Moscow-vs-Russia.

But all this doesn't matter now anyway.


Bernd 06/09/2022 (Thu) 15:15:06 [Preview] No.47829 del
Sad, I had hoped this would not happen. Well maybe it still won't, they are not dead yet.

It's not really fair, they are doing exactly what everybody else is doing in this war, in fact there are people that are doing worse than they are. I don't think they should be treated like this just because they are foreign.


Bernd 06/09/2022 (Thu) 17:57:01 [Preview] No.47830 del
>>47818
I wouldn't expect huge drop in living conditions. And not skyrocketing up either. Similarly how we joined the EU, there are changes but are we really "richer"? Well more people have cars and quite lot of families even two. Which means they can afford to get moar loans for sure.

Oh this EU stuff made me remember something. Wanted to rant about how Hungarian sweets brands, liek chocolate bars, favoured by many Hungarians, aren't in Hungarian ownership anymore, but not even produced in the country. Some produced in Ukraine... And now we have shortages. It's liek if Ukraine joined the EU, and people woke up one day, and their favourite buckwheat was bought by some German or Dutch multi and the production was outsourced to Russia.

Anyway back to the topic.
>That means that system may be more efficient for average citizen.
The income from the resources export didn't trickle down. While Cold War ended, Russia still has to maintain a global power, well at least as close to that from what's left.
From more money more can be stolen, but I dunno which country is more corrupt.

>But all this doesn't matter now anyway.
Yes, it's all hypothetical.

>>47829
The big question is, what will be the result of them being executed? Will it be a deterrent and less foreigners will join? Will make the foreigners fight more fiercely and mercilessly knowing they'll get no mercy either? How can the propaganda of each side profit from it? Can Russia use their lives as bargaining chip somehow?


Bernd 06/09/2022 (Thu) 20:09:56 [Preview] No.47831 del
(33.17 KB 600x500 deebly_goncerned.jpg)
About the convicted foreign fighters.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/9/foreign-fighters-sentenced-to-death-in-separatist-held
Some highlights:
>violating four articles of the DPR’s legal code, including attempting to “seize power” and “training in order to conduct terrorist activity”,
>The court identified each of the groups as “mercenaries” and said their actions had “led to [the] deaths and wounding of civilians” as well as the destruction of infrastructure in the DPR
>the three men had pleaded guilty to all of the charges
>are now set to face a firing squad
>Their lawyer said they will appeal the decision.
Now this one is more interesting:
>Pinner and Aslin’s relatives have argued both are long-serving members of the Ukrainian military and not mercenaries.
I guess they are there since 2015-16
What is the definition of mercenary anyway? Local soldiers serving with contract are essentially mercs too no? They are work as professional soldiers, they get money for their service.
>A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the United Kingdom’s government was “deeply concerned”
Oh god. Cannot they come up with something fresh? Or be honest about it: "we don't give a shit but we are obligated diplomatically to try some stuff" or "we don't give a shit and can't do shit about it, but consider us making sympathetic noises"
>Another British fighter captured by pro-Russian forces, Andrew Hill, is currently awaiting trial.


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 02:45:23 [Preview] No.47832 del
A Czech T-72 was captured in Ukraine. Interestingly everything seems to be in English.

It was refitted in Romanian by APOLO.


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 02:48:38 [Preview] No.47833 del
>>47832
Opps, I meant it was refitted by a Bulgarian company called APOLO, not a Romanian one.


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 06:20:21 [Preview] No.47834 del
>>47832
The Czechs attacked Ukraine? Nice.
>made in europe
It's like muh favoured Hungarian sweets all over again
To be fair this happens to westerners too like that Skandi fish salad made in Polan


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 11:35:01 [Preview] No.47835 del
(22.35 MB 960x540 caesar.mp4)
French Caesars in action. It definitely acts not that fast as in promo videos.

Video is partially staged for journalists though, but shows some parts of controlling interface.


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 12:40:17 [Preview] No.47837 del
>>47835
The crew would not be trained as well as a French crew.
Also, those kinds of systems rely on being integrated into wider networks to be used to their fullest, kind of like the M177 but to a greater degree. Because with a self propelled gun, the firing solution can be sent to you while you are moving to a predetermined point(to help with said calculations I would guess), then once you reach it you could set up, fire and then leave.

I mentioned before that the M177s in Ukraine lack the ability to do things like that as they had the component needed removed from them. I doubt they could do it with these either, it takes much more effort and training to set up of course as you are not just training a crew on a gun you are creating a network to guide it and training people to manage that as well.


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 13:44:46 [Preview] No.47838 del
>>47835
Das fühl when turned up the volume so I can hear them talking a language I don't understand.
Poor Glib moar liek GLib amirite looks as he had some sleepless nights.
>It definitely acts not that fast as in promo videos.
They made it look like they are less competent so Russian command will underestimate them if they see this footage.

>>47837
>The crew would not be trained as well as a French crew.
And for promo videos they give the best. Even Frenchies don't do as well as in promo material.


Bernd 06/10/2022 (Fri) 15:56:12 [Preview] No.47839 del
France 24 made a video about them as well.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=j8AF2s6vQLg [Embed]


Bernd 06/12/2022 (Sun) 11:09:58 [Preview] No.47870 del
Somehow I ended up on this page while just surfing the web:
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/hungary/safety-and-security
>There are multiple reports of widespread military activity in Ukraine.
Uncomfirmed.


Bernd 06/12/2022 (Sun) 21:17:06 [Preview] No.47883 del
This Ukrainian bridgehead on Davydov Brod, near Kherson, looks relevant, though allegedly it was beaten back.

Meanwhile in Syria, both sides are already reinforcing the Tal Rifaat and Manbij fronts, where the Turkish-rebel offensive is expected. Iran opposes the Turksih operation:
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/iran-turkey-brace-face-syria

Elsewhere, Israel bombed the airport in Damascus. An overlooked flashpoint has been Sinjar in Iraq, where the Yazidis are divided between the Kurdistan Regional Government-Turkey and Shi'a Iraqi-PKK-Iran camps. The Iraqi central government is logically in the latter camp, but made an offensive against PKK-aligned Yazidis last month under an agreement with Turkey to remove militias from the area. This is confusing, and if it continues to be an Iran-Turkey conflict, then the Iranian-aligned Iraqi central government would have to cease its attacks.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-iraqs-sinjar-became-battleground-between-turkey-and-iran
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iraq-sinjar-yazidis-flee-offensive-armed-group


Bernd 06/14/2022 (Tue) 17:46:49 [Preview] No.47940 del
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Ukros using electric dirtbikes. They lug around AT weapons.


Bernd 06/14/2022 (Tue) 17:48:48 [Preview] No.47941 del
>>47940
Thats a one fat AT bastard.


Bernd 06/14/2022 (Tue) 18:32:06 [Preview] No.47942 del
>>47883
>though allegedly it was beaten back.
One more thing we'll never be sure of.

In Syria and the neighbourhood not much changed.


Bernd 06/16/2022 (Thu) 16:24:36 [Preview] No.47991 del
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97,000 Anti Tank systems have been sent to Ukraine. That's more Anti tank systems than there are tanks in the world.


Bernd 06/17/2022 (Fri) 07:17:52 [Preview] No.47999 del
A Ukrainian Advisor to Zelensky has said that the Ukrainians are losing 1000 men a day and that of that 200-500 are killed a day. This doesn't look good for them...

https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia


Bernd 06/17/2022 (Fri) 14:38:11 [Preview] No.48003 del
>>47999
That Arakhamia bloke sounds arrogant.
>German government was still very reluctant to approve export licenses to arm Ukraine, perhaps due to "internal fear" of Russia.
They can even afford to mock and badmouth those who trying to help.
>Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more
More greenhorns thrown into the grinder.
>Arakhamia and other members of the delegation noted that while Biden had signed a $40 billion package to aid Ukraine in May, it was only very gradually translating into actual weapons shipments.
I wish Westerners/USA had been this lazy with our billions of dollars and weapon shipments in 1956. But they only sent a bucket of rice.


Bernd 06/18/2022 (Sat) 06:27:47 [Preview] No.48006 del
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Moved this thread here, to keep the stuff together.


Bernd 06/18/2022 (Sat) 17:25:35 [Preview] No.48009 del
>>48003
I can understand where they are coming from with this kind of rhetoric. Western leaders were contacting the Ukrainians and promising them support, everybody in the west is talking about how important this is and how terrible Russia is and you have people like Biden saying that his goal is to defeat Russia. But what is the result of that?
That's just what has been said in public as well, who knows what promises were made in private and what the west was saying to Ukraine in the day leading up to the war.

Yes, they say they have been recruited into the army but I wonder what form that is in. Whether they are all training now, they are in units reading to fight but being kept back, they are actually on the fronts fighting or what. Well it would be a mixture of all three but the ratio would be what matters.
I think they are going to have a lot of trouble forming combat effective units, we know they lack equipment but I'm not sure they have the expertise and structure either. They aren't a conscript based army like Russia so they don't have formations staffed by officers already with some kind of cohesive structure but just waiting for conscripts to fill the ranks in the event of a war. They will be making these formations from scratch and they won't even have the officers and NCOs to do it I wouldn't say.


Bernd 06/18/2022 (Sat) 17:35:45 [Preview] No.48010 del
>>48009
>I think they are going to have a lot of trouble forming combat effective units, we know they lack equipment but I'm not sure they have the expertise and structure either.
They won't form new units, or just a few. They'll fill the ranks of the existing ones. Probably give out lotsa promotions the to vets, and surround them with the fresh troops.


Bernd 06/19/2022 (Sun) 03:09:57 [Preview] No.48014 del
Loyalists and the SDF are preparing to fight the next Turkish offensive in Syria together:
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/kurdish-syrian-iranian-forces-coordinate-ahead-turkish-operation

>The operations room includes the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG); a battalion affiliated with the Iran-backed Fatemiyoun; a battalion affiliated with the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah movement; Iranian-backed groups from the towns of Nubl and al-Zahraa; formations of the Syrian regime forces from the towns of Abna al-Sahel, Hayyan, Haraytan, Anadan and Masakan; and the Baath Brigades.
>The operations room also includes two Russian officers, three officers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, three Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) leaders and two leaders from the regime forces.
>In this context, a high-ranking military source from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Iran is the one who formed the operations room by pressuring the regime and Russia and also through the Iranian leaders in the PKK’s Afrin Liberation Forces, which are present in northeastern Syria. Iran is thus seeking to protect the Shiite-majority cities of Nubl and al-Zahraa located near the lines of contact with the areas controlled by the Turkish-backed opposition, which will be at risk if the latter takes control of new areas following the Turkish operation.”
It'll be fought at the far west of SDF-controlled territory, far from American bases. It seems the two camps might as well be allies in the area.


Bernd 06/19/2022 (Sun) 03:12:20 [Preview] No.48016 del
>>48010
They didn't have existing formations of a million men before the war, they can't use that million to simply replace losses.
Many of them might be kept back for manpower to do that but they will need to create new units as well.


Bernd 06/19/2022 (Sun) 07:14:18 [Preview] No.48024 del
>>48016
Most of that million are drafted on paper. They don't even have the capacity to train that much or place them anywhere. They have a bunch of existing brigades maybe they can spread 100K man among those in regular intervals depending. Meanwhile the new recruits can be actually trained, because that not just a weak or two. And they can train them for the various new weapon systems they get from the west.

>>48014
>Loyalists and the SDF are preparing to fight the next Turkish offensive in Syria together
That will be a hoot.
Is Iran gaining influence on the expense of Russia (since she's busy elsewhere)?


Bernd 06/19/2022 (Sun) 15:19:16 [Preview] No.48028 del
Gas shortage is expected in Europe. The amount of gas coming through North Stream 1 is declining. Russians say some malfunction in some hardware. Anyway Germany enacted new law maximizing the temperature providers have to provide to clients. And they try to keep gas levels up in storage. So they have to replace gas burnt with something. Guess what. They replace it with coal.


Bernd 06/19/2022 (Sun) 19:10:02 [Preview] No.48029 del
Russian army spokesman said they struck a gathering of over 50 officers (among them several generals) and killed 'em all. They were from units placed in the Mikolaev - Zaporyozha front.


Bernd 06/20/2022 (Mon) 03:04:14 [Preview] No.48033 del
Australia is donating 14 M113s now. That's unfortunate, we are in the process of replacing them with another vehicle in the regular army but as the reserves don't have anything like that at all they should be going to them. In fact half of our regular army is still motorised so even they could make use of them.


Bernd 06/20/2022 (Mon) 07:26:04 [Preview] No.48038 del
Just plaster a map here. Busy shelling all along the front.
Couple of stuff in the north the same artillery activity.


Bernd 06/20/2022 (Mon) 07:33:43 [Preview] No.48039 del
The commander of the logistics of the Command of the Ground Forces, Vladimir Karpenko, said this in an interview.

>I won’t talk about anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons yet. I’m talking only about heavy weapons. Today we have about 30-40%, and sometimes up to 50% of equipment losses as a result of active battles. Thus, we have lost about 50% lost about 1,300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery systems

https://odessa-journal.com/it-became-known-what-losses-ukraine-has-suffered-in-military-equipment-since-the-beginning-of-the-war/

Interesting. I had a look at what else the website had to say and apparently we don't need to worry about equipment losses because the war is going to be over in a few weeks and the Russians are going to run home. Aleksey Arestovich, the adviser to the head of the presidential office had this to say.

>Well, a little more, some more deadlines. You can say – 2-3 weeks, in fact – no, there will be more, maybe a month and a half. But they will stop. And then there will be a feeling (for the occupiers), very important from an ideological point of view, and from the point of view of victory in the mental space – the meaninglessness of what is happening

https://odessa-journal.com/arestovich-russian-troops-themselves-will-begin-to-withdraw-from-ukraine/


Bernd 06/21/2022 (Tue) 07:48:50 [Preview] No.48043 del
>>48039
I highly doubt Russians would leave just like that. They could just stay where they are and continue to bombard Ukrainian positions.
Will they have an ideological rupture? It's not liek they are ideologically motivated now. Troops losing morale could be a problem, but without suffering huge losses (doesn't seem they are doing large scale frontal attacks), they could fart around, doing half-assed shellings till the end of times.


Bernd 06/21/2022 (Tue) 13:14:48 [Preview] No.48046 del
Australia also has to re-open a coal mine to cover the gas shortage. The mine is situated next to Graz, and was closed in 2020 due to environmental concerns.
The news was broke on national telly by Leonora Gewessler, an environmental activist, Die Grünen party politician who serves now as the Minister of Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology.
The cope is that now they lowered Russian gas dependency to 70%.


Bernd 06/21/2022 (Tue) 13:35:17 [Preview] No.48047 del
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Last week, I saw it in the news, Hungarian, and on Al Jazeera that the EU took some steps to accept Ukraine among her members. They drafted a list of requirements, about democratic expectations, and anti-corruption demands. Some laws sure will be enacted by the Rada (the parliament of Ukraine). Most of the stuff is symbolic I think, they'll let Ukraine in on the first possible occasion. This week the EU is going to hold a conference to discuss the question, Orbán told we are enthusiastic about accepting Ukraine among the member states. If this is our standpoint all the other PM's and Presidents will support the idea 1488%. Anyway they're gonna give candidate status for now. And later...

What I think we are witnessing is an event which will be remembered and taught to students as the partition of Ukraine. After Russia gets what she gets, the rest will be annexed by the EU. This event could very well mean the end of Ukraine, since the EU will try to move for the dissolution of the member states, and create a federal government over them, creating a super-state. Regions will become more important as local level of government, instead of previous countries, and some/many regions will reach beyond previous borders (I bet some gerrymandering will be had).


Bernd 06/21/2022 (Tue) 13:38:01 [Preview] No.48048 del
You just can't trust greens.


Bernd 06/22/2022 (Wed) 12:10:40 [Preview] No.48053 del
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Situation on June 1st and 22nd.


Bernd 06/22/2022 (Wed) 19:05:52 [Preview] No.48054 del
Ukro-level shameless PR optics. Such is the degree of control and dominance of media gifted by their western patrons
But more interesting than the ukrainian stupidity/shamelessness is Germany going along with it (Barbarossa) by delivering those weapons on cue. USA's narrative-control leash on Germany must've slacked as some interests override others.

>>48047
>about democratic expectations, and anti-corruption demands
Just a day before it was confirmed by a "constitutional court" in Lvov the outlawing and confiscation of assets of the 2nd most popular political party in the Ukraine in the 2019 presidential elections (and the most popular in eastern regions). This was on top of other 8 opposition parties banned previously. Von der Bitch just a few hours ago: "Our opinion acknowledges the immense progress that democracy has achieved since the Maidan protests [fucking lol] of 2014". Such a tiresome charade.

>they'll let Ukraine in on the first possible occasion
Would mean more massive diversions of money from the top EU budget contributors
Also, while I suppose Russia would rather have EU pay for Ukr infrastructure restoration, on security grounds they should oppose this. I said this months ago when Russia was saying that EU for ukraine was dandy. EU is almost acting as an extension of NATO now and moving more in that direction, and even in the best-case scenario (for us) that EU become liberated from the Yank Yoke it will probably then develop into some kind of military bloc, and on current trends it will be opposed to Russia no less than USA is. In fact maybe some russian reads end/kc/ because some time later I read that some rus official said that they were now withdrawing their "blessing" of Ukr accession.
In any case, I'm fairly certain that this visit of Macron, Draghi, and the "sad sauerkraut" (as the Ukrainian ambassador called him) to Kiev and the subsequent statements in support of candidate status, and the actual candidate status too, if it materialises, are just intended to prop up the Clown of Kiev, his political party, and his administration, so that the govt. can hold on as long as possible, extracting as much cost as possible from the rus before the end. It is purely self-interested, to draw the war out by gifting the clown the necessary political capital to offset bad news that may come from the frontlines.

>the EU will try to move for the dissolution of the member states, and create a federal government over them, creating a super-state...
I agree. I said similarly before. But I see this occurring in a much longer time frame than a potential partition of Ukr with involvement of EU states (Poland mainly, perhaps Hungary, perhaps Romania [btw, Moldavia's govt submitted an amendment to halve the number of signature required for a referendum on unification with Romania; such a thing may have serious implication for Transnistria and other pro-Rus regions of Moldavia])


Bernd 06/23/2022 (Thu) 02:13:04 [Preview] No.48055 del
I think they should let them into the EU, just look at the problems they are already having with Poland and Hungary. This would be hilarious.


Bernd 06/23/2022 (Thu) 07:36:24 [Preview] No.48056 del
>>48054
It could very well be that the promises on behalf of the EU just a way to build national confidence in Zelensky to make Ukrainians hold out longer.
But if Western Euro multis can own a bit more lands, farms, factories, and workers without restrictive borders and regulations that come with that. Besides maybe they can muscle out some local oligarchs this way and take over their shit.
And then it could mean to extend USian control to the Russian border without making Ukraine a NATO member.
>EU is almost acting as an extension of NATO now
EU members are US client states, therefor EU is a US client state.
>Yank Yoke
This is a very accurate description, and nice wordplay on the Mongol Yoke.
EU does what the US wills. The EU won't be an independent country (when she turns into a country) because the foreign policy is subordinated to NATO and US will.

Now this is curious. What would happen if they abolished member states in the EU? Many are in NATO, but some isn't. Will EU join and make the now nonexistent nonmembers members?


Bernd 06/23/2022 (Thu) 16:04:51 [Preview] No.48058 del
Some dudes on the local imageboard are claiming that Kaliningrad and Lithuania are taking relevance into the current conflict, how true is this?


Bernd 06/23/2022 (Thu) 16:54:48 [Preview] No.48059 del
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>>48058
Kaliningrad is Russia, so has to do something with the conflict.
But in respect with Lithuania. She started to enforce the EU decisions to sanction Russia, so stopped most of the transit towards Kaliningrad. This is kinda uncomfortable, because Russian airplanes are banned from EU airspace, so they can't just fly over that easy. Plus they can't transport a bunch of products to Kaliningrad, from alcohol to oil.
As a counter step Moscow said she will flip the electric switch off and detach Lithuania from the regional electric lines. I dunno how this works.
Now the media magnifies the problem with talking about the possibility that Russia will close the Suwalki Corridor, which is basically the border region of Poland and Lithuania, between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
This is a long standing strategic problem all the militaries are calculating with since the SU fell apart, and Lithuania regained her sovereignty, and Russia lost direct land connection to Kaliningrad.
Now the tension allows the media to wail and generate fear and they do because it is good for business, and people with heightened emotions are easier to control.
I don't think occupying the Corridor is a real possibility, because:
1. Russia already has enough on her plate
2. It is an open conflict with NATO.


Bernd 06/24/2022 (Fri) 01:53:33 [Preview] No.48061 del
Yesterday Russia made some advances around the pocket that was forming in Zolote which I had heard contained around 2000 Ukrainian soldiers.

It looks like the Ukrainians have now withdrawn from the pocket to avoid being encircled. That's actually reasonable and I am surprised, this doesn't seem to be their normal strategy.


Bernd 06/24/2022 (Fri) 03:01:44 [Preview] No.48062 del
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Russia has apparently captured two Caeser howitzers.

A French politician/journalist said on Twitter that they had been captured and were being sent to Uralvagonzavod to be inspected and reverse engineered. Then Uralvagonzavod replied, apparently they thanked France and Macron and said they would be useful(I don't speak Russian).

No pictures have been provided however.


Bernd 06/24/2022 (Fri) 07:21:18 [Preview] No.48063 del
And apparently they are pulling back from Sveirodontsk now as well.

Anyway, here a a piece from the Royal United Service Institute.

It's about the industrial nature of the war, they also estimate that Russia fires 6240 rounds of cannon artillery per day. Which is quite a lot less than what I have been hearing from the Ukrainian side. I think they said that they were firing 5000 rounds a day and that Russia was firing 30,000 or 60,000 a day or something like that.


https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare


Bernd 06/25/2022 (Sat) 16:46:00 [Preview] No.48070 del
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Candidate status was granted not only to Kiev but to Chisinau as well (who promptly declared it was ready to join in economic war against the russia). Brussels dedicated even emptier words to Tbilisi too. To celebrate, ukr ministry of justice announced that it's evaluating the outlawing of 7 more political parties. In acknowledgment of another "immense progress" in Ukr democracy, EU announced it's allocating another ~$9B in credit ("financial aid") for the kiev govt.

>>48054
>I see this occurring in a much longer time frame
On the other hand, a few days ago Sad Liverwurst (correction, my bad) was saying that there should be "reforms" in EU before new members are admitted. He was explicitly referring to the elimination of unanimity requirement for high-level decisions, thus getting rid of the "veto power" often exercised by the Visegrad four. Now, couple this to the pressure from Brussels & Berlin to ensure the "primacy of EU law" over national courts, as we saw applied against Poland last year, and we already could see a key degradation of member-state sovereignty... So perhaps it won't be so long-term after all.


Bernd 06/25/2022 (Sat) 17:44:53 [Preview] No.48071 del
>>48056
>But if Western Euro multis can own a bit more lands, farms, factories, and workers without restrictive borders and regulations that come with that. Besides maybe they can muscle out some local oligarchs this way and take over their shit.
I see your point. Yes, capital would surely push for more cheap-labour immigrants, privatisation of whatever public industries or services remain in the Ukraine, and the foreign investment and development projects that would surely be created for a potential new member (as was done with other EE states), this coupled with "corruption proves" to clear ground may open clear opportunities for companies to take over existing assets or resources. In fact, Sad Liverwurst also said something about supporting a "Marshall plan" for the Ukraine.
>The EU won't be an independent country (when she turns into a country) because the foreign policy is subordinated to NATO and US will.
There is a potential silver lining to be found: US had been demanding hikes for Nato military budget for years and finally got it now. Most significantly from germany which has allocated ~$100B (this alone is significantly more than russia spends) and vowed to create the strongest european army, but also france and poland. Now, all this is supposed to be subject to the "nato integrated command", i.e. mostly USMIL, but, while a country that doesn't rely on itself for defense is not fully sovereign, a country that funds its own military is most of the way to full sovereignty. So it is possible we might see in the future europe being increasingly able to meaningfully push against decisions made across the atlantic, since the counterweight of military reliance-cross-imposition would become progressively weaker.
Similar developments may take place elsewhere too: There has been repeated talk of japan amending its pacifist constitution to allow development of more serious attack capabilities (which the usa might allow, as long as they are directed against china; yes, washington wrote tokyo's constitution and gets to decides if they can change it) or, if not that, at least significantly increasing its military budget.

On the other hand, it is only a potentiality. We have also seen very official buffoons (mainly from US and UK [plus the Baltosluts who just ape whatever comes from those two places]) talking about "partnerships" and "global missions" that effectively amount to expanding nato into east-asia (e.g. worst korea, japan) or the pacific (maybe singapore?). Will NATO be changed to GAETO? Also, through the Auukus, Australia has already committed itself to serve as spring-board for US's military jumps into the Asia-Pacific region. So, another possibility is that these developments, which basically amount to military build-ups in Europe and perhaps in east-Asia/Pacific, are instead heading towards a WW3-type conflict some years down the road: pushing russia and china together was (probably) an undesired outcome that they nonetheless greatly helped to bring about, through sheer power of witlessness and ideological zealotry, and which now looks a pretty solid trend. So perhaps TPTB have accepted that as a fait accompli and instead of changing course decided to prepare to take them on in the not-too-distant future. The proclamations by the british army staff chief are quite explicit in that regard.

>>48059
It's not just "uncomfortable" (Btw, the "uncomfortability" comes from the fact that this is a partial/selective blockade, and a full blockade is a clear-cut casus belli), it is, in addition, a violation of a decades-old trilateral agreement between russia, eu, and lithuania that stipulates that lithuania must provide a route to supply kaliningrad. The agreement requires a 6-months warning notice before a party withdraws, but lithuania gave maybe 2 days of notice.
It is true though that not all supplies are blockaded, so it's an "uncomfortable" and dangerous gray area. Apparently eu will be reconsidering this


Bernd 06/26/2022 (Sun) 03:23:48 [Preview] No.48072 del
>>48071
Germany doesn't really have any interests outside of profit making and opposing Russia. So I don't know how much they would push against Washington anyway. The French however do have interests but they also do often oppose what the US does anyway.

I also wonder how long the increase in German spending will last. Military build-ups require long term commitment but democracies can be quite fickle and short-sighted as can the public particularly in this era of social media and news cycles.
It's likely that once the war ends and the next big news cycle starts the Germans will start to ease back to their standard profit making mindset and then once Putin leaves the Kremlin they will use that as an excise to revert to pre-war funding levels.


Bernd 06/26/2022 (Sun) 07:02:51 [Preview] No.48073 del
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Yesterday Severodonetsk fall in the way that Ukraine withdraw troops to Lysychansk. Lysichansk. Lusuchansk. Something. I read it's "higher ground". Also I read it is a great victory for Russia, or purely symbolic and useless in it's core, depending.
They also gained more gains on the south inside of the cauldron as noted here: >>48061
Did some doodling based on literally nothing. Made two versions.


Bernd 06/27/2022 (Mon) 10:36:58 [Preview] No.48080 del
>>48061
>It looks like the Ukrainians have now withdrawn from the pocket to avoid being encircled. That's actually reasonable and I am surprised, this doesn't seem to be their normal strategy.
They picked the military standpoint over the propaganda. They must have decided the trade off doesn't worth it. Those troops have experience, and they can also show they care about the human resource and don't want to throw it away for generally useless clay.

>>48062
Apparently western tech can be captured. Western soldiers too.

>>48070
Very nice clothing in theme appropriate colors.
>ready to die for European perspective
Will their football players kneel for blm?
>financial aid to Kiev
They are pouring that money in that barrel without Ukraine in the EU, so incorporating her wouldn't be more financial burden anyway.
>elimination of unanimity
They started this a while ago. Maybe in January, quite early this year, but before the war the EU parliament voted on some decision that they don't need unanimous votes, just simple majority for decisions related to foreign affairs. It wasn't something binding, just to implement it in the future.
Now that they are pissed that we/Orbán vetoing everything (now the issue is some fixed minimum 15% corporate tax or something) I guess they push harder for that.


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 08:29:04 [Preview] No.48085 del


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 10:22:53 [Preview] No.48086 del
Moar gains. They closing the gap. When Ukrainians will withdraw from Lisuchansk?


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 11:10:59 [Preview] No.48087 del
>>48071
>prepare ww3
More military spending. I'm glad govts have all these moneys.

What I also see with this Ukrainian stuff and the rhetoric (like that bs from Leyen), that it can be used to help creating an EU identity for EU citizens. The common struggle that binds us together. They spread just enough Ukrainians all over the place so everyone will know one, and then incorporate what's left from the Ukraine, and say how we struggled together, in fact we are the same. Meanwhile abolish countries, continue to make people forgot nations, forge the EU identity (with other tools too) above all. We will be USians and we'll like it.
>Baltosluts
The Baltic countries are in a shit position. They are small with little population. They were conquered by all around everybody, most recently the Soviet Union. They are neighbouring the remains of that country, Russia, which shares strategic interests with her predecessor. After they broke, the Baltics can't see other solution just finding another sugar daddy that helps them out. US is great because it is too far to actually annex them.
In fact there is not much else for the Baltics to do. If you have a stronger neighbour, she will try to conquer you sometimes. If noone backs you, she will do it.


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 16:24:59 [Preview] No.48088 del
>>48086
I've heard they might not be able to as the Russians have fire control over the roads now, but I'm sure they could get through if they really pushed.


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 19:26:25 [Preview] No.48089 del
>>48088
Must be practices to do such things.


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 19:56:47 [Preview] No.48090 del
>>47999
What news we get? Fresh article from today:
https://index.hu/kulfold/2022/06/28/joe-biden-ukrajna-haboru-teruletek-veszteseg-ketelkedik/
>a donbászi előrenyomulást megakadályozni akaró küzdelemben elképesztő csapatveszteséget szenvedett el, amely akár 100 katonát is jelent naponta.
In English:
>in the struggle aiming to prevent the advance in Donbas, she [Ukraine] suffered unbelievable losses, which can mean even 100 soldiers a day
100. Rosy.


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 21:44:48 [Preview] No.48091 del
>>48072
>Germany doesn't really have any interests outside of profit making
Naive. As was said before, EU seems headed towards becoming a superstate, and everyone knows that within Europe Germany tends to dominate EU policy.
Some people in German govt (who knows what fraction) likely see the current NATO/EU battle over the Ukraine similarly, from a strategic PoV, as Drang nach Osten and Generalplan Ost, though tactically the methods are those learned from the master: cultivate co-optible "democratic" vassals, and in the darkness bind them ;-).
>opposing Russia.
Germany and Russia are in fact naturally complementary trade partners. Part of usa's mission in europe is to prevent cooperation between those two. Why do you think they hate NordStream2 so much? This anglo view of "Great game" was already so during the period of monarchies and the British Empire
>So I don't know how much they would push against Washington anyway.
Germans have been thoroughly culturally colonised. But I'm sure enough of them realise they are effectively a colony and remember (in their blood) that they weren't always so. It may be quite long-term but: eu on a path to superstate; germany dominant in eu; at least a chance of a progressively looser yank yoke; no empire is forever (fingers crossed). You can connect the dots.
>but they also do often oppose what the US does anyway.
Not really anymore. Already under Chirac it became much more pliant to US interests (although at least he did oppose the invasion of Iraq), but since Sarkozy (who "returned" France to Nato, although there was never a real departure due to legal entanglements) France is not too far from a common vassal. It would probably be one if not for its own nuclear deterrent and its military-industrial capability. Apart from being given a pass wrt to the overseas territories, France is often treated not much better than a designated "enemy" of the empire and she just lowers her gaze and swallows her pride. De Gaulle is sorely missed. See for example the numerous cases of us law applied extraterritorially for the benefit of us companies, in detriment of french ones. You have, for example, pretty much Huawei-tier economic-war cases like the one against Alstom, complete with the kidnapping of persons of interest (Meng Wanzhou in Huawei, Frederic Pierucci in Alstom; the case of Meng Wanzhou is even more illustrative because she wasn't even detained in the USA but in Canada, on the orders of the US justice ministry), and many others like the one against BNP Paribas, or Technip, or Société Générale, etc. The torn submarines deal is one more in a long series. They do the same to others too, e.g. Toshiba in Japan some decades ago
The USA basically believes it has the "manifest destiny" to rule the world (to "save" the world), so it arrogates to itself the application of its domestic law everywhere it pleases, for its own benefit, in pursue of its own interests. And if you don't like it you are branded a "threat" to the "rules-based world order" or to the "international community" and so on

>>48080
>They picked the military standpoint over the propaganda. They must have decided the trade off doesn't worth it.
Well, not quite, because it's been nearly 3 weeks since the initial call for withdrawal came, and since then they have been choosing the political/propaganda standpoint, and paying for it in 1000s of losses. Actually, it is not just due to propaganda for the clown of kiev, it is part of the deliberate strategy, probably urged by london or washington (I read about a uk suit saying they were focusing ukie training on urban warfare), to ensure that the cities and industrial assets in the territories lost are sufficiently destroyed that they won't be profitable for the LDNR or Russia for a long time. Mariupol, Azovstal, Severodonetsk (less so), Azot, now the refinery in Lisichansk, etc. Grozny again and again. I have said this obvious thing since the beginning


Bernd 06/28/2022 (Tue) 23:15:55 [Preview] No.48092 del
>>48090
Yeah, it was "up to 1000 per day" here >>47999, 10 days ago. Who knows. It's is odd for them to admit bad news. Maybe they switched strategy: inflate the losses, appear more miserable, more pitiable, a more efficient beggar? Doubtful
Stupid ukies are not fighting for their interests, specially the eastern ukies and zacarpathians. They are just inflicting as much damage as possible to the rus to benefit nato/eu while paying with their lives
But, on the other hand, stupid ruskies keep taking this bait. I don't think it's a good tradeoff for them either. Yet the kremlin has so far been quite averse to escalating to proper full war. I think it's a mistake. I believe time is not on their side: the ticking clock of nato and co. is inflation and energy issues (being very wealthy, but perhaps more sensitive to reduced QoL), the ticking clock for rus is inflation and supply issues (being poorer, but perhaps somewhat more resilient to reduced QoL) plus the reconstruction of the ukr army. This is probably the most direct among the many indirect/proxy wars that Us/Nato has waged. Unending supply of weapons; ukr troops trained on Nato soil; 7th (8th?) batch of anti-russian economic war; CIA agents and NAtO commanders in ukr soil managing surveillance/intelligence for the frontlines (NYT); Liverwurst on behalf on "G7" (or NATO/"international community" is all nearly the same) just yesterday vowing "unlimited support" for kiev. USA has put in motion for ukr the same "lend & lease" program it used in ww2, and it and its allies/vassals have a much greater military-industrial capacity. Turning this into another afghanistan tar pit has been a goal for washington since the beginning. The kremlin's refusal to escalate is making it more likely. As I said before, I believe at this rate russia will not only "lose" kiev but also the rest of historically-russian novorossiya

>>48087
I understand that they may be in a shit position but I'm sure they can do better than allow themselves to be disposably used not just against russia, but also against western europe (every time there's reservation in WE about sacrificing the national economies for the sake of usa's geopolitical goals, the first ones to scurry to the side of the master and chide europe are the baltoids and poland). Or even drag us to nuclear conflict just to stoke their their petty historical or ethnic hatreds, example:
>Apparently eu will be reconsidering this (>>48071)
There is word from eu apparatchiks that they are drafting a resolution that would prevent the means of economic warfare adopted by eu to be used for blockades, thus ensuring transit of banned products "from russia to russia". Lithuanian suits were very quick to state that they would veto such a resolution (Lol). Just in case anyone forgot, there is currently no embassy-level diplomacy between russia and lithuania because the latter expelled the rus ambassador from vilnius and recalled its own from moscow (I know latvia did the same, wouldn't be surprised if estonia too). And then people wonder how in the world it was possible that europe wandered, seemingly blindly, into WW1
Such small countries are a pain. Maybe they shouldn't exist (though Zhirinovsky's suggestion might be a tad too harsh ;-). Or maybe major countries should just stop treating them as if their opinions mattered as much as everyone else's. Maybe the major countries should be more responsible than granting an "article 5" nuclear trip wire to such foolhardy microcountries. In fact, why the fug are the baltoids in Nato?? What do they contribute? Nothing except risk and liability! What kind of security treaty is that which expands to DECREASE security rather than increase it? The only reason they are in nato is because usa, sitting safely a continent away, protected by giant oceans and unthreatened by neighbours, can use them to provoke and undermine its designated adversaries (russia in this case). Same story with the georgia and ukraine, of course. France, Germany and other members are guilty too for being just too damn supine


Bernd 06/29/2022 (Wed) 11:23:37 [Preview] No.48102 del
(12.27 KB 368x190 rehtoric-def.png)
I liek this duality rhetoric. Ukraine only uses defensive weapons and Westerners only send them defensive weapons, but when it comes to America's mass shooting problem media writes and politicians talk about assault "weapons".

>>48088
I think if the Ukrainian army could muster a diversionary attack, and engage Russian forces and artillery, they also could launch an attack from the inside and force themselves through the gap.
The problem would be: even by the liveuamap, which is obviously biased towards Ukraine, they can't muster anything. They aren't lazy to display the tiniest counterattack, and these are very rare occasions.


Bernd 06/29/2022 (Wed) 11:28:07 [Preview] No.48103 del
>>48092
>Yeah, it was "up to 1000 per day" here >>47999, 10 days ago. Who knows. It's is odd for them to admit bad news. Maybe they switched strategy: inflate the losses, appear more miserable, more pitiable, a more efficient beggar? Doubtful
I'm pretty sure that particular site works with the number Zelensky said on June 1 and never heard about the second numbers. Or they just ignored because prefer not to give real bad news.


Bernd 06/30/2022 (Thu) 20:10:55 [Preview] No.48110 del
(620.84 KB 1483x791 2022-06-30-syria.png)
Some shelling, yesterday and today. Preparation for offensive?


Bernd 07/01/2022 (Fri) 08:22:03 [Preview] No.48111 del
Since this thread is about 3rd world shithole conflicts, this article will fit right in. The changes of military spending of the V4 countries (Polan, Czechia, Northern Hungary, and Hungary).
https://index.hu/gazdasag/2022/06/30/visegradi--orszagok-duplazodnak-a-hadikiadasok/
They say this Ukraine conflict put on a strain on the V4 countries due to different attitude. They have their common EU battlegroup (whatever this means), which will be placed on 6 months alert from 2023 January, under Polish leadership.
For the 2% NATO obligation everyone has to raise the military expenditure. But the war shakes up the plans.
Czech changes are mostly symbolic, probably because they are the farthest geographically from the border.
Polan is the most zealous. Their aim is 3% of the GDP, and want to double their army. They send equipment for Ukraine every week.
Northern Hungary wants to fasten the tempo of upgrading their military. They want that 2% to be a minimum, and they have a plan going to 2035.
Hungary raises her spending for 7 years now, and will continue. A program of development was initiated in 2018. By 2024 we'll reach the 2%.

They get the numbers from here:
https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex
Why is it always Switzerland and Sweden?


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 02:58:10 [Preview] No.48117 del
It appears that Lyschansk has fallen. Or at least most of it, it's really hard to say.

Liveua maps is quite pro Ukrainian so it avoids showing Russian gains until it has too but there is footage of Chechens at the administrative building of the city now.

Liveua maps is annoying, I was frequently hearing about areas being taken but it would never come up on the map until yesterday or even just now. So I have been looking for a replacement map.
I remember Youtube recommending me videos by Defense Politics Asia, I did not watch them but the Thumbnail looked like it was using a better map so I checked the video.
It is a better map, it's actually a map that he creates himself and he seems to do a lot of digging to make it. He seems to be fairly light-hearted in his approach which I find more agreeable than the rest of Youtube who pretend they are all experts.
I don't know, the map is more accurate and show much more of what is happening but it's made using that Google maps thing so it's more messy than Liveuamap.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 05:28:51 [Preview] No.48118 del
The Belorussians are saying some strange things now.

It looks like they are staging the grounds for an intervention but as I have talked about before I don't think they have the forces too. Not unless they fully mobilise which would be odd for them to do particularly as Russia has not even done so.
But then who knows. They would have a good understanding of Ukrainian force deployment, maybe the Ukrainian army has sent everything east and doesn't have much to oppose Belorussia.
Or they are just posturing again or they are going to 'retaliate' in some other way.

I equally don't see why Ukraine would launch missiles at Belorussia, they have their own war to fight as it is.
But then again, who knows. Maybe they actually did launch those missiles and are hoping to trigger an escalation in the war that would draw in more western support.
Though I don't see that happening, the west is already sending what it realistically can. Most of the equipment that can easily be transferred like ATGMS and Soviet era equipment has already been sent.
Now the west will have to draw from equipment that it's more likely they will need or already use and the Ukrainians have to be trained on them.
That seems to be a large bottleneck, even if the west has the equipment, it does not have the ability to train large numbers of Ukrainians at one time particularity not on advanced systems.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 08:15:59 [Preview] No.48121 del
>>48110
At first when I looked at the picture I though what the hell happened to Ukraine.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 08:24:24 [Preview] No.48123 del
>>48121
That's the new plan.
South in red is Russia. Green in north is Belarus. Yellow in the NE is "independent" Ukraine. The rest in the west is flooded, an artificial see up to the Carpathians.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 08:40:14 [Preview] No.48124 del
(1.19 MB 720x1280 belgorod-a.mp4)
(1.04 MB 848x464 belgorod-b.mp4)
(82.99 KB 959x1280 belgorod houses.jpg)
>>48118
>strange things
It can be interpreted as strange only because Belorus might not have the necessary forces and one would expect such a move from Russia instead. But from a strategic PoV it is pretty obvious, and I have said as much before, that the nato military supply routes need to be cut or this shit will just drag on or even turn on them. They either cut in from the northwest or "nuke" (hopefully not literally but maybe literally) all the routes westward (and then you keep "nuking" new routes opened).

>Maybe they actually did launch those missiles and are hoping to trigger an escalation in the war that would draw in more western support.
Last night, after the fall of Lisichansk, they apparently did launch something towards various targets in Russia (Belgorod and Kursk) (there was also claims of attacks on Melitopol but I have not seen visual evidence).
From Kursk pics were shown of something shot down by AA, allegedly Ukr drones. No damages or casualties AFAICT.
From Belgorod there are videos and photos of explosions inside the city, several houses either on fire, damaged, or destroyed. At least 3 civilians killed, others claim 5. 4 more injured including minors. I have not seen evidence of the kind of projectile or explosive used, however. (Could it have been an accidental explosion? A gas leak or something?)

Moscow had been repeatedly warning about targeting ukr "decision-making centres" in response to attacks on the russia, but so far I don't think they did. Several days ago Kiev shot at some russian petroleum-drilling platforms near the crimea, injuring 3 workers and rendering 7 more missing (they are almost certainly dead by now) and moscow did not deliver on the warning. Will they do it now?
And which are these "decision-making centres"? The presidential palace? The Rada congress? The courts? The seats of ministries, specially defense? One would expect that non-political military "decision-making centres" would already had been targeted by now
Maybe this is what the AFU wants. We know that the Bandera-hailing national-guard battalions don't particularly like the Clown (the Azovites tell in their war memoirs how they would "bring the revolution to kiev" after dealing with the donbass). The politicians in kiev didn't have great control over them before the russian intervention (for example, they basically told Zelensky to piss off when he went to donbass to try and convince them to cooperate with the peace platform on which he was elected) and there's little reason to believe they would have more control now. Maybe the ukr military, or a section of it, are deliberately provoking moscow to retaliate against the political centres of power of the ukr govt. With those gone, almost certainly a military "junta" would take over. That is, them. (There are some interesting "pros" for the russian side in such a scenario [e.g. "optics"], probably also some significant "cons" for the ukr population.)


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 10:09:47 [Preview] No.48128 del
>>48047
>What I think we are witnessing is an event which will be remembered and taught to students as the partition of Ukraine.

I dont think this is likely. While this movement to turn EU into this literal super state exist, I dont feel like it is particulary strong. In fact since Ukrainians wants to be independent so much and still get closer to the West, they could be a valuable ally inside EU for those who also oppose this federal thing (and maybe an ally against other EU bs as well). As for the eastern parts of the country, that is still being disputed so to speak.

>>48124
>and I have said as much before, the nato military supply routes need to be cut or this shit will just drag on
or russians could pack their shit and leave since they have no business being there


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 10:42:55 [Preview] No.48129 del
>>48091
>Europe Germany tends to dominate EU policy.
And Germany's policy is dominated by multi-corpo interests, and USA pressure (since Germany is a US client state).
>Some people in German govt [...] ) likely see the current NATO/EU battle over the Ukraine similarly, from a strategic PoV, as Drang nach Osten and Generalplan Ost
I can imagine that. The ideology changes, Pride, ambition and vainglory doesn't. And even ideology... German farmers, farmer cooperatives, agricultural companies getting cheap land (and workers to cultivate them) is also in the plans.
>Part of usa's mission in europe is to prevent cooperation between those two.
The big talk is going on about energy independence, but it's just exchanging chains for shackles. EU can get her resources from one side or the other. And one side's loss will be the other's gain and vice versa. And since the end of the leash is held in Washington...

>>48072
>Germany doesn't really have any interests outside of profit making and opposing Russia.
Germany shares interests with Russia. It would be common interest to see USA gone from Europe, and loosening the noose as much as possible, it's just noone in decision making positions are for independent Germany, they all get their programming from Washington. But besides this there are others, like cheap gas and oil. Germany needs it, Russia sells it. There might be other stuff. It's similar how Weimar cooperated with Soviet Russia, giving them tech, helping in industrial stuff, while Weimar could do military stuff in Soviet Union. Or the grain export from the SU.
It's just there is a limit how far these interests go. Countries gain power and as long as they are far enough they can help each other grow. But when they turn powerful enough their interests start to clash. And it's done, no more cooperation.
A kinda unprecedented friendship can exist between Poland and Hungary, because we have same enemies, and in the north we have a barrier separating us, keeping us in a distance basically. But for example in the question of Bohemia we had our clashes. Polish kings had ambitions to gain Czechia, and ours had too. And the Czech kings had their own similar ambitions towards those two directions. (And then Austria and the Habsburgs just complicated the matter more.) If we were left alone by other powers around (eg. Germany and Russia), we could cooperate nicely and build our powerbase. But everything outside of the Carpathian basin towards the east and west would turn us on each other when we both reached towards them to incorporate those areas in our sphere of influence.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 13:23:43 [Preview] No.48131 del
>>48092
>but I'm sure they can do better than
No. There is either US/EU, or Russia. No luxury of third choice. Even Hungary's balancing act is a mirage. There is no local popular will in creating independent states, or a cooperative of independent states. If there was and it was prominent enough to gain the govt. the US would step in and manipulate things to get her way.

>>48117
Now there is no road leading out of the cauldron. It's open fields and patches of woods.
>Defense Politics Asia
Sounds good.

>>48118
It seems they did couple of shots towards Russia too. "Too", since we cannot really know what's going on. What's the status of Belarus? They aren't a belligerent side, their units don't participate, but Russians could attack from them. Getting shot at is definite casus belli, getting hit isn't a criteria. If really happened some heavy reasons have to be behind the verbal retaliation which was made instead of real one.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 13:40:56 [Preview] No.48132 del
>>48124
>And which are these "decision-making centres"? The presidential palace? The Rada congress? The courts? The seats of ministries, specially defense? One would expect that non-political military "decision-making centres" would already had been targeted by now
That was Lukashenko's comment.
Russians did hit a gathering of officers (with several generals among them). Well at least this what they said.
>We know that the Bandera-hailing national-guard battalions don't particularly like the Clown
>The politicians in kiev didn't have great control over them before the russian intervention (for example, they basically told Zelensky to piss off when he went to donbass to try and convince them to cooperate with the peace platform on which he was elected)
The Banderists are a dying breed. Literally. They are the ones who give everything in the fight, they'll hold out the most and they'll die too, or get captured after surrounded. You can bet they are directed to the toughest parts of the front. Russia is solving Zelensky's nazi problem, and takes care of all those pesky militants. Meanwhile propaganda creates myths and legends which are politically more acceptable. EU is babbling about Ukraine's fight for European values such as liberal democracy and gays.
This is also part of The Patriot Dilemma. Let's say I'm a Nazi in Ukraine, zigheying great historical Ukro statesmen pogroming Jews. Then some foreign country attacks my country, and some Jew (who did little gay dances at his previous jobs) at the top of the Ukro govt says I have to die so he can look manly on Western tellys. Do I go and die? Most likely I didn't even have time to make little Ukrainians and instill them what it means to be a Good Ukrainian.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 14:20:53 [Preview] No.48133 del
>>48128
Nationalist Ukrainians are in the process of getting doned. The more the war goes on, the more gets doned. When the war ends, only those Ukrainians will be left who won't mind to dissolve their country in EU. Maybe. I think lotsa Hungarians are against this idea, and I assume Poles too. Should be even more such Ukrainian in proportion. But the job of propaganda is to make people accept ideas, decisions. Plus the EU wanna ditch the unanimous vote thing in favor of (simple) majority.

>or russians could pack their shit and leave
Yes there is more than one way to finish this conflict.
>they have no business being there
This is also part of The Patriot Dilemma. Let's say I'm a Russian. I'd like my country be an independent sovereign state. She has the power to meddle in foreign countries, project power even overseas. I could say ok take my ability to do it, but the thing is there never really is a stopping. If I allow a stronger nation to confine me, which will make me weaker, they will then meddle in my internal affairs as a next step.
Yes, this is a slippery slope, but it's not a fallacy in this case. This is how power works, one can't count on the abstinence of the powerful. The bully will take your pocket money unless you are a bully yourself.
But let's go further. So ok, let's say I hate Putin, and his oligarchs, and how they own the country, and if you want to achieve more then what's matter is whom you know and not your qualities, because some shithead can throw me out of competition because he knows the right people. Corruption and nepotism sucks. And my country could be so much better without them.
Then with the meddling the US removes them, but at that point they can put their lackeys into the positions of power. Situation remains similar, except now Russia is yet another US client state. This really goes against my wishes no matter how much I'd like Putin gone.
So not just USians should be allowed to meddle but have to be pushed as far as possible, because it will easier to keep them at bay. So we should meddle in other countries to remove USian influence. Gain positions what the Soviet Union had first.
So they have something to do in Ukraine. It is definitely Putin and co's move, and it is done so their system can survive. But it still could be acceptable for those who don't favour them, or want to see them gone.
Or not, would their life be worse if the US and their lackeys were in charge? Besides Russian self-loathing can go far.


Bernd 07/03/2022 (Sun) 17:06:07 [Preview] No.48134 del
>>48124
It would be a fairly risky operation both militarily and politically. I would say that if they were to get involved it would just be to tie up forces in the north and maybe threaten Kiev again.

That's Russia not Belorussia though, they are fighting a war with Russia so it makes sense to hit them.

I doubt that they will strike the government. As you say that would just result in the military taking power. They need Zelensky to sign whatever peace deal they implement. He is the official, recognised head of state. If the Russians sign a peace deal with the Military or even with whatever politician might follow on after him then many in Ukraine could argue that the terms are not binding as they were not signed by the elected head of state, the west will say that too.

>>48128
>or russians could pack their shit and leave since they have no business being there

They won't. They have strategic reasons to be there. But also this war is too important for them to lose in a geopolitical sense as well, if Russia looses this war, it stops being a great power.
The Russians would sooner mobilise than lose this war which is something I don't think the west is accounting for. If they actually achieved their goal of defeating Russia, that just means that a Million Russians are going to invade Ukraine instead of 200,000.

>>48129
Germany has a strange relationship with Russia, she wants to leave peacefully with her so she can focus on profits but at the same time Russia still is the greatest threat that she is always going to face. So it's a balancing act. This war has flipped the scales however, Germany now predominately sees her as a threat is will be unlikely to work with here again for a while.
Germany wants the US in Europe. Anything that means she can spend less on defence is good for her.

>>48131
Yes, it seems they are trapped. If they have not withdrawn already.


Bernd 07/04/2022 (Mon) 01:26:20 [Preview] No.48138 del
(788.31 KB 828x587 FWwNV4yWYAEEwiu.png)
>>48092
>It's is odd for them to admit bad news. Maybe they switched strategy: inflate the losses, appear more miserable, more pitiable, a more efficient beggar? Doubtful
At least some of their bad news are probably this, in the vein of "our glorious military are very competent at holding off the moskals, they just need a new batch of 10.000 tanks and 50 million shells from the West".

>>48118
Belorusian intervention doesn't make sense now that Russia has retreated from Kiev and the north.

>>48132
>The Banderists are a dying breed. Literally. They are the ones who give everything in the fight, they'll hold out the most and they'll die too, or get captured after surrounded. You can bet they are directed to the toughest parts of the front. Russia is solving Zelensky's nazi problem, and takes care of all those pesky militants. Meanwhile propaganda creates myths and legends which are politically more acceptable. EU is babbling about Ukraine's fight for European values such as liberal democracy and gays.
I've also thought about this - I wouldn't be surprised if a peace deal included Ukraine outlawing Azov and similar groups, it'd be a victory for both Russian PR and the westernizing political class in Kiev.

>>48134
>Yes, it seems they are trapped. If they have not withdrawn already.
Jihadi Julian's reporting shows the Russians as already having taken the entire Luhansk oblast. It's curious how he tries to be objective when covering the military facts on the ground, critically interpreting official Ukrainian claims, despite his well-known dedication to one side. Maybe he wants to be his side's pessimist.


Bernd 07/04/2022 (Mon) 08:06:29 [Preview] No.48144 del
They crossed the river and moved in Bilohorovka. No artillery intervention this time. It's done.

Also check this. Weird updates, site behaves a bit wonky. The rest of the cauldron "flickers" sometimes shown in red, sometimes no coloration. Events disappear and gets re-added.


Bernd 07/04/2022 (Mon) 14:00:53 [Preview] No.48147 del
(114.28 KB 507x696 pantsir.jpg)
>>48124
>From Belgorod there are videos and photos of explosions inside the city, several houses either on fire, damaged, or destroyed. At least 3 civilians killed, others claim 5. 4 more injured including minors. I have not seen evidence of the kind of projectile or explosive used, however. (Could it have been an accidental explosion? A gas leak or something?)

There were photos of parts of Pantsir missiles stuck in buildings. Media uses it for making pretty crazy theories, but looks like everything was simple - some missiles (Tochka most likely) were maybe targeted on airport (closed from March but used for air force) that is located at northern part of city, but were shot down. So their debris and parts of AA missiles fell to the city. Although it is hard to say what really was a target, because Tochka is old and not very precise.

> We know that the Bandera-hailing national-guard battalions don't particularly like the Clown (the Azovites tell in their war memoirs how they would "bring the revolution to kiev" after dealing with the donbass).

National guard of UA has oversized media attention, especially from Russian side (who paints it as root of all evil). But most of them are basically armed police force, and has size like only 60k people. Closest analogue is Russian Rosgvardia part that was "VV" (Internal Troops) in past. It is basically army without really heavy weapons but similar structure and even mentality.

And most famous "guard battalions" like Azov are not even big part of them. They've just had good PR-guys to get media attention. They were some kind of independent force in 2014, but were pushed under government control later by reforming and assimilating into National Guard (Azov), disbanding (Shahtersk/Tornado), dissolving to multiple irrelevant parts (Donbass). Some of them gone into army for some reason (Aidar).

Thinking that they can be some separate force now is wishful thinking (mostly from Russian side). Even while they have some disagreements with "unpatriotic government", they still more unified against external threat. And if they aren't happy, they still not serious force to do any kind of revolution, especially when only small part of them may do it.

Some decision-makers from Russian side already had delusions about UA army and society in first few days, but we all see how things happened after.

>The politicians in kiev didn't have great control over them before the russian intervention (for example, they basically told Zelensky to piss off when he went to donbass to try and convince them to cooperate with the peace platform on which he was elected) and there's little reason to believe they would have more control now

It is just Ukrainian mentality. It is pretty hard to describe it in few words, you need to live some time in region where they are main cultural group (most of central/eastern Ukraine and parts of south Russia) to fully understand it.

As a fun fact - when IKEA tried to build their shop in Krasnodar, it was so hard so it became easier to get agreement with nearby Adygeya republic (who are pretty specific Caucasians that are not very fun to deal with) instead. So shop was built in Adygeyan part of Krasnodar suburbs.

>>48131
>What's the status of Belarus?

They do nothing. Some sources say that they don't even pay for Russian gas now, because exchange rate is unfair. Seriously, Lukashenko is one of the most skilled politicians in the world.


Bernd 07/04/2022 (Mon) 18:09:41 [Preview] No.48150 del
>>48131
<but I'm sure they can do better than
>No. There is either US/EU, or Russia. No luxury of third choice.
Well, no. While they may have no 3rd choice, they still absolutely can do better than constantly being a torn on the side of their regional partners, alternatively poking the bear and the dragon, all for a few head pats by uncle sam, while mostly western europe pays the costs.
And, btw, you mention "US/EU" as one of the choices, but it bears pointing out that Europe itself is not in their calculations. See for example the totally whorish Lithuanian FM Landsbergis telling British media that he'd rather not have "European strategic autonomy", only the GAE. As has become common, he of course uses the consequences of nato expansion as retroactive justification for it and, not content, shills for "global alliances", i.e. GAETO. He also praises another deranged whore, the UK FM Truss, and instead complains about France not ruining all semblance of diplomatic relations like they do. He, the FM of a country that (despite their "trade office" provocation last year) still officially recognises a single China sovereign over mainland and island, also publicly claims that taiwan is a "country" and has "internationally recognised borders". Very professional. He proposes to replace the UNSC with the G7. Isn't it convenient? After doing that, the dissonance between "international law" (UN), "rules-based blahblah", and "international community" magically goes away! The entire thing is just pure buffoonery: https://archive.fo.onion/BJGcs
There's more to say here about the baltoids, but just one more example: They have a significant russian-speaking minority, and apparently emboldened by the new wave of anti-russian sentiment in europe they (the 3 of them) announced plans to curtail the teaching of the language over the following years, which sounds similar to what the maidanists have been doing in ukr since the 2014 coup. Of course, while something like this would cause a scandal if done in France or Spain, since the target is Russian language/people, nobody bats an eye in EU.
>>48132
>Russians did hit a gathering of officers (with several generals among them). Well at least this what they said.
Right, I think I read about that. In Nikolaev or Ekaterinoslav, can't remember. But, as you point out, those were only words. I've seen no evidence or confirmation.
>The Banderists are a dying breed. Literally.
I see what you mean, but the USA made sure after WW2 that enough of UPA/OUN survived to be used to counter the SU (and later/now Russia). Many 1000s now live in US and Canada (cf. the infamous Edmonton memorial). I'm sure that, even in a worst-case scenario for them, in which western-ukraine is out of their control, Washington would again find a place in its ample bosom for them to nurture their wounds back to health so that they can be, in due time, used again. The game never ends.
>>48134
Which is why I said: one would expect such a move from Russia instead
>If the Russians sign a peace deal with the Military or even with whatever politician might follow on after him then many in Ukraine could argue that the terms are not binding
Well, it's worth remembering the fate of Minsk 1 & 2: not even treaties signed by their anointed head of state are worth much credibility. Petro Porochenko, who is now enjoying life in London together with his family (including a son, allegedly class of 2001, military-age), openly admitted just a few days ago that from his PoV Minsk 2 was "successful" because it bought Kiev 8 years to build up their military. So they never intended to implement the agreement they signed, using it only as a delaying tactic.
So, at least in the case of the ukr, ensuring a signature from an elected govt is not solid guarantee either
>>48128
>they have no business being there
Lol, I assume a pole saying this is just venting and he is not actually burger-tier clueless


Bernd 07/04/2022 (Mon) 18:29:24 [Preview] No.48151 del
>>48147
>looks like everything was simple - some missiles (Tochka most likely) were maybe targeted on airport (closed from March but used for air force) that is located at northern part of city, but were shot down. So their debris and parts of AA missiles fell to the city.
Right. Rus sources claim that the attack on belgorod was carried out with 3 tochka-u missiles. They claim they intercepted all 3. But I think the one explosion captured on video is too strong to be just debris, unless it hit something flammable when it fell on those houses. Or maybe this interception was only partial, failing to completely destroy the incoming missile, instead mostly knocking it off course. This has happened in the ukraine too with incoming cruise missiles partially diverted and causing civilian damage.

3 among the dead turned out to be refugees from kharkov
The attack on kursk is said to have been carried out with 2 Tu-143 drones loaded with explosives. They were both shot down.
Btw, this past week another Tu-141 was reportedly shot down over kursk

>Some decision-makers from Russian side already had delusions about UA army and society in first few days
I agree that there was delusion or strategic/intel incompetence (I said it here >>47382), but I also think that part of this may be deliberate, to give most ukrainians a chance to distance themselves from the groups easily percieved as extremist (because they like to flaunt their nazi-larping cool kid personality) and, at the same time, give most russians a chance to not blame all the ukro population. In fact, I proposed similarly before: russia should fight "lvov" and the "galitsiyan jihadism" [*], rather than "regular ukrainians". (It is not dissimilar to how "the west" will blame pretty much everything on Putler, who is the devil incarnate, they won't even say "Russia", they name him instead, because the goal is to split the rus population from the target of their regime change.)
[*] Yes, I know that some of these groups actually draw forces from the eastern side, rather than galitsiya, but I believe my argument is still valid because the former just adopted the belief system of the latter, and as is well known, new-converts are often more zealous than the priest.
>And if they aren't happy, they still not serious force to do any kind of revolution
Maybe. The Bolshevik were the minority. The Maidanists, who 2 days after the coup revoked language rights for at least 40% of the population, could not have been a majority. In the end, the side willing to use brutal force, even if less numerous, usually overcomes the one that just wants to be left alone.
Also, while it is simply incorrect to blame everything on those groups (for example, years of shelling donbass was the responsibility of the regular army rather than the bandera gangs), it is also foolish to pretend that they ever abandoned their hooligan ways (which was mostly their origin) and forget the brutal crimes they committed in places like Kiev, Odessa, Mariupol, and that they still commit today against pro-rus ukrainians. Some of them really did act as death squads for an aggressive ideological vanguard.
>It is just Ukrainian mentality.
I have heard from first sources of this legendary ukie stubbornness (although the kharkovite who told me was very pleasant person herself)


Bernd 07/05/2022 (Tue) 03:03:53 [Preview] No.48154 del
(87.88 MB 1280x720 OSCE.mp4)
Does anybody want to know what Ukrainian generals' houses look like?
This is one in Kherson, but he was not in at the time.


Bernd 07/05/2022 (Tue) 04:37:06 [Preview] No.48157 del
>>48144
Now the next hurdles are going to be Bakmut and the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk conglomeration.
They will be harder to encircle as well.

But then much of what will happen in the next few days and weeks relies on things that we don't know about. Russia should clear the remains of the pocket and reach the above mentioned cities but then how much more will happen in the near future will depend on how badly mauled the Ukrainians are and how much time the Russians feel they need to recuperate, if any. Which we don't know.


Bernd 07/05/2022 (Tue) 07:39:50 [Preview] No.48158 del
(732.91 KB 1517x866 donetsk-border.jpg)
Donetsk oblast, needs to be "liberated". They could stop and say they liberated Lugansk and they won. But that would really fall short from the already declared goal of liberating both people's republic because now they have declared goals unlike how this whole campaign started out in February.
From there they could go for taking whole Zaporyozhia oblast with the town. Then maybe Dnipro, but more likely to turn west to Mikolaev, then Odessa. The latter would be a great win.

>>48154
He really had to jump over that couch.

>>48157
Optimally they should have a weight of force that could exploit the relative disorganization a withdraw must cause, since some units surely were evacuated (liek in Bilohorovka), not just left there to be captured.
But what I think Ukrainians had built up positions outside the cauldron where they sit solid and comfy. And Russians don't have the forces.


Bernd 07/05/2022 (Tue) 07:42:54 [Preview] No.48159 del
(630.81 KB 1244x770 new-york.png)
Imagine when Russians will bomb New York.


Bernd 07/05/2022 (Tue) 16:12:31 [Preview] No.48165 del
>>48158
>He really had to jump over that couch.
An amateur would go around, he would not be able to tactically Operate at such a professional level.


Bernd 07/05/2022 (Tue) 19:57:47 [Preview] No.48166 del
(6.82 MB 640x352 might-be-fake.mp4)
Does this mean this thread is pointless now?


Bernd 07/06/2022 (Wed) 16:34:30 [Preview] No.48176 del
>>48175
Now Zelensky can enact it himself.


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 02:50:57 [Preview] No.48183 del
The Caesar story just got stranger. Apparently the Russians did not capture them, apparently Ukrainian officers sold them for $120,000. Sounds like a bargain, it probably costs more to make even a Russian cruise missile so they could be saving money by buying them.
Apparently 4 have been destroyed as well, which would account for all 6 in total, but France is now sending 6 more.
Ohh and two HIMARSs were also apparently destroyed.


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 02:52:46 [Preview] No.48184 del
>>48183
$120,000 each not for both I mean. Ukrainian officers can driver a harder bargain than that.


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 03:08:32 [Preview] No.48185 del
(205.40 KB 1280x1280 Brazilian_mercenaries.jpg)
(1.18 MB 352x640 IMG_8805.mp4)
Additionally, two more Brazilian fighters were killed, one was a girl. She died of asphyxiation while attempting to escape a drone attack on her place of accommodation while the other was a man that was killed outside by a mortar round. Sounds like another barracks was hit.
She is very weird looking. She was also apparently a Lawyer, Model and a Sniper who had previously been working with the Kurds. That's a common story, many of the foreign fighters have previously fought for the Kurds, I very nearly went myself.

Also, look at how powerful Russian machine guns are! They can destroy an S-300 in one shot! Wow!!!


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 07:01:56 [Preview] No.48186 del
>>48183
The market fixed it.
>HIMARSs
This was in Hungarian news too, citing Russian source.

>>48185
>he died of asphyxiation while attempting to escape a drone attack
Had to be uncommon circumstances to asphyxiate. I would expect some wound from blast. Does a lung injury counts as such?
>She is very weird looking.
1. heavy makeup (in this case counts as warpaint, not just simple covering of flaws)
2. buff (have to be fit to work as mercenary)


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 08:47:53 [Preview] No.48187 del
>>48186
I don't think it's that unexpected. When a building catches fire it's the smoke that actually kills, the building probably caught fire in the drone blast and the smoke killed her as she tried to get out.

I don't mean that I mean her whole face looks weird, her nose, mouth, cheeks, eyebrows, everything. But I think the eyebrows are tattooed on, some girls do that.


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 09:45:34 [Preview] No.48188 del
It's interesting that S-300s are so vulnerable to bullets. Wouldn't that mean that in theory any sniper in spotting distance could take a pot shot and take one out? I guess in theory that matters less because of how far they are supposed to be behind the front but it's still possible.

Also, about that video I posted. I got it from Southfront but all they said about it was that Russians soldiers destroyed an S-300 after it was abandoned. However, Southfront has previously posted a video clips of Spetznaz operating behind enemy lines, getting into gun fights and there was a video of them ambushing three soldiers, killing two and then capturing the last one. The Uniform they wear looked allot like that one in the video, it has the same colouration and it looks like he is wearing one of those tactical operator helmets. So maybe it was the same people which could mean this was behind enemy lines(though considering how the lines moved just recently maybe not).


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 13:22:06 [Preview] No.48190 del
>>48187
>When a building catches fire it's the smoke that actually kills
In normal home fires yes. But this time a drone poked holes on it. It's so much we don't know about the parameters of the attack to argue about how it was.
>I don't mean that I mean her whole face looks weird, her nose, mouth, cheeks, eyebrows, everything.
Yes. This is why she has so much makeup. To cover up the flaws I mentioned. And this is the end result. Imagine without the paint. Ukros wouldn't let her in for demoralizing the army.

>>48188
>video of them ambushing three soldiers, killing two and then capturing the last one.
That drone footage? When the Ukrainian did the barrel rolls alternating with fire trying to get to cover?


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 13:25:53 [Preview] No.48191 del
>>48190
And then they run up to him, wrap him up and run away?

There was also headcam footage of it but yes, they look the same right? That would explain why they destroyed it instead of capturing it as well.


Bernd 07/07/2022 (Thu) 18:07:51 [Preview] No.48192 del
According to New York times Ukrainian volunteers are sent to the front after just 2 weeks of training.
Here's link, but paywalled. NYT doesn't want their paper read.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/02/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-volunteers.html


Bernd 07/08/2022 (Fri) 17:39:21 [Preview] No.48216 del
UAWrdata finally updated, this time it has updated Ukrainian units as well.

Much of it is confirming what I talked about before, about Territorial units that had been seen at the front but there are some new units as well, and some units that never appeared on the map before.

About 10 Ukrainian Brigades(so about 30 BTG equivalents) have been moved to the Front of which 3 are new never having been seen on the map before. 2 Ukrainian Brigades and a Regiment have disappeared as well, though they may just have been moved back far form the front to regroup and not been but on this map. One Ukrainian Brigade has been directly replaced, so I don't know if it was wiped out and replaced with a new unit or if it was just a mistake and they are correcting the name.

It's much harder to look in depth at the Russians so I did not bother. They don't have all units listed, they seem to rotate them more often, unit numbers can be fuzzy to begin with and BTGs can come from the same brigades.
It's also much harder to guess Russian numbers. Of course it's hard to tell what strength units are in on both sides but the Ukrainians simply list their Brigades and where they are so you just multiply them by 3 to get the equivalent in BTGs.
The Russian units on the other hand are western estimates, some times they list Artillery brigades and have the BTG strength listed as 0, do I list them as a BTG anyway? Sometimes they give a brigade 2 BTGs in strength, is that right? Sometimes they place a division there with 3 BTGS in strength
is that the division that brigades that have already been listed are subordinate to or is it actually something new? It does not say the nearby brigades are subordinate to it it says they are subordinate to an army but the division is subordinate to the army as well so are the brigades part of the division? It's annoying. Take it all with a grain of slat.

Anyway, around Khakiv, the Russians have approximately 7-12 BTGs and the Ukrainians 18.
Around Bahkmut, the Russians have approximately 31 BTGs and the Ukrainians 57.
On South front north of Crimea the Russians have approximately 7-8 BTGs and the Ukrainians 12. But there are 2 Russian BTGs in the rear, I don't know if they are contributing, reserves or passing through.
And finally around Kherson there are approximately 9-11 Russian BTGs and around 21 Ukrainian BTG equivalents.


Bernd 07/08/2022 (Fri) 19:58:53 [Preview] No.48217 del
>>48216
What we should keep in mind is that those Ukrainian units look good on paper, but their worth is questionable. The training of the troops, the equipment.
Despite this I don't think the Russians have the upper hand much. They lost valuable manpower which is also questionable if they can replace.

To sum up: the numbers you could put together based on UAWrdata say, that Russians have 56-64 BTGs, Ukrainians 108 BTG equivalent present on the front or nearby.

I think Kharkov is way fortified, I expect more bombardment and not much else.
The sickle around Bakhmut (I rather name it after Sloviansk or Kramatorsk) still looks as the main source of real activity. Probably this region is also fortified by the Ukrainians (they build their shit since 2014-15). At the center northern line is along the Siverski Donets and that means river crossings which has the promise of being painful. The eastern northern line (the Bakhmut side) looks more open, I think there are the fortifications.
The other two fronts are also secondary, and doesn't look like Russians wanna conduct serious assaults there.


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 01:58:34 [Preview] No.48219 del
>>48217
The Ukrainians also only have 4 Brigades that aren't territorial brigades that have not been put on any of those fronts, two Mechanized Brigades in western Ukraine, a Mountain Brigade near Konotop and a tank Brigade near Odessa. So they really don't have anything professional and well equipped left to send anywhere.

Yes, the Russians would have suffered losses as well. Also now that the Ukrainians have been pushed back you can see how condensed the Ukrainian positions are around the Bakhmut(or Solviansk) area. The Russians are probably going to have to try striking at the fringes like you say.


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 02:56:38 [Preview] No.48220 del
(2.90 MB 480x854 S-300.mp4)
They got another S-300. It looks like they learned their lesson this time and are shooting from a bit further away.


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 03:56:55 [Preview] No.48221 del
He released another video. I won't say much about it, it's very interesting so you should watch yourself.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=dEbLuAPobao [Embed]


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 09:31:59 [Preview] No.48227 del
>>48220
Are those abandoned, captured? Were the crew neutralized beforehand?


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 10:55:02 [Preview] No.48228 del
Ukrainian server on 195.64.136.162 open ports 25 and 587 with running SMTP e-mail services. You can connect via Telnet.
Example of SMTP commands:

EHLO endchan.net
AUTH LOGIN
(username encoded in base64 should go in here)
(password encoded in base64 should go in here)
MAIL FROM: admin@khrda.gov.ua
RCPT TO: webmaster@endchan.net
DATA
Hello there
.
SEND FROM: admin@khrda.gov.ua
QUIT


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 12:47:59 [Preview] No.48229 del
>>48221
Excellent.
So they are expecting an offensive from the are of Kherson next spring. Gonna be a long year till then.

One line the Ukrainians are expected to stand is the Bakhmutka river, the other is the Kriviy Torets(?) where lays that chain of towns from Sloviansk to New York. Where could be the existing fortifications lay?
Anyway, I expect them to defend the first line than move back to the western. And Russian forces capture the land to the Bakhmutka as first step.
But the second map here: >>48216 suggests a buildup around Izium, and the Austrians also count with the possibility tof an attack from there.
In the Kromatorsk corner, the Ukrainian units are all jumbled up, but nevertheless concentrated there, while a bit further back they seem to be thinner, and susceptible to a strong assault from Izium.
Also note the balance of units in the vid at from 7:14
>108 Russian BTGs
vs
>60 Ukrainian BTGs
I think he implied that whatever the Ukrainians have are in so disorganized now they can't count on them.


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 13:55:06 [Preview] No.48230 del
>>48227
I'm not sure.

>>48229
Maybe, but then it's fairly far south and the Russians launched the invasion in winter to begin with. I don't know that the season will impact Russian plans too hugely.

Yes, They will probably try both.
I think they will push from Izium and from south of Bahkmut. That would give the units that just fought time to rest as well. But that depends on what opposition Ukraine will offer them. If they are too weakened by this then why bother resting?

It's also interesting that he states the Ukrainian strength as 81 BTGs at the start of this battle. So they have lost a quarter of their operational BTGs in that battle, and that does not even mention what state the operational BTGs will be in.


Bernd 07/09/2022 (Sat) 18:49:06 [Preview] No.48235 del
Zelensky fired several ambassadors: to Germany, India, Chech Republic, Norway, and Hungary. No idea why. I know both diplomats to Germany and Hungary bitched and screeched quite well, so probably not incompetence.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-sacks-ukraines-envoy-germany-other-ambassadors-2022-07-09/

A Hungarian security/conflict eggsbert (close to Fidesz) says if the West don't send money and weapons Zelensky will fall in 24 hours.
Also the big winner is China, USA comes in second place. The greatest loser is Europe. Also without the US no West exist.
https://index.hu/kulfold/2022/07/09/haboru-orosz-ukran-konfliktus-oroszorszag-ukrajna-nogradi-gyorgy/

Also Nord Stream gas pipeline will stop for 10 day maintenance. Meanwhile Canada don't want to give back some turbine to Russia to run the pipeline, Germany begs to do it, while Kiev demands to keep it. The Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag started to calculate with the possibility that in couple of month the gas supply of Germany will crumble, if after maintenance Nord Stream don't restart. This will cause several company to stop production, and Germany's economy will suffer from it, double digit decline can be expected. ING expects Eurozone recession.
https://index.hu/gazdasag/2022/07/09/nemetorszag-oroszorszag-eszaki-aramlat-leallas/


Bernd 07/10/2022 (Sun) 08:57:58 [Preview] No.48238 del
Lotsa bombardment today (was yesterday too). Explosions in Lugansk and Donetsk too.


Bernd 07/10/2022 (Sun) 09:33:51 [Preview] No.48240 del
>>48150
>The entire thing is just pure buffoonery: https://archive.fo.onion/BJGcs
Link's wrong, remove the ".onion"
>>48151
>The Maidanists, who 2 days after the coup revoked language rights for at least 40% of the population, could not have been a majority
Assessment quoted from two "north american academics" as published on washington post (so I'd expect anti-rus bias, if anything) back in 2014 during the revolt:
<Keith Darden and Lucan Way [...] exposed how less than 20% of protesters professed to be driven by “violations of democracy or the threat of dictatorship,” only 40-45% of Ukrainains were in favor of European integration, Yanukovych remained “the most popular political figure in the country,” and no poll conducted to date had ever indicated majority support for the uprising. In fact, “quite large majorities oppose the takeover of regional governments by the opposition,” and the population remained bitterly divided on the future of Ukraine, Darden and Way wrote. Such hostility stemmed from “anti-Russian rhetoric and the iconography of western Ukrainian nationalism,” rife among the demonstrators, “not [playing] well among the Ukrainian majority.” Of the 50 percent of Ukraine’s population residing in regions that had “strongly identified with Russia” for over two centuries, “nearly all [were] alienated by anti-Russian rhetoric and symbols.” “Anti-Russian forms of Ukrainian nationalism expressed on the Maidan are certainly not representative of the general view of Ukrainians. Electoral support for these views and for the political parties who espouse them has always been limited,” Darden and Way concluded. “Their presence and influence in the protest movement far outstrip their role in Ukrainian politics and their support barely extends geographically beyond a few Western provinces.”
https://archive.is/mx0wE

>>48235
>No idea why.
For the ambassador to Germany, Melnik, probably due to vid related, from last week. He gave public interview were he praised Bandera as a hero. Was confronted by the interviewer about the role as WW2 collaborator and directing the elimination of non-Ukrainians (meaning non-Galitsiyans). Read him a WW2 pamphlet where he apparently extols people to destroy the poles, russians ("moskal" same slang they use now), jews, hungarians, which are the enemies. He just rejected all accusations.
This caused backslash from the poland, zirael, germany govts (also russia but they don't give a shit about that). Melnik is the same who had previously called Scholz a "sorry liverwurst".
The others could just be covers for the sacking of melnik (some war-time pretext about possibly having had contact with the russian side was rumoured)
>Canada don't want to give back some turbine to Russia to run the pipeline, Germany begs to do it, while Kiev demands to keep it
I read the head of some german parliamentarian energy commission recommended to put in motion the procedures for activating NS2. That would be quite interesting. He seems not to have great support from other MPs though. Yet. Perhaps they will soften once shortages happen but it might be too late then: it takes months to put in motion such infrastructure and months to build up reserves
However, latest news is that canada would likely give the turbines back, after they impose more face-saving anti-russia measures to look tough


Bernd 07/10/2022 (Sun) 13:39:03 [Preview] No.48241 del
>>48235
I think the expert was wrong. Still, it was brave of him to give such a time frame.


Bernd 07/10/2022 (Sun) 19:06:23 [Preview] No.48242 del
>>48166
>Zelensky
>Z
It all makes sense now.


Bernd 07/10/2022 (Sun) 19:57:44 [Preview] No.48244 del
>>48242

It's not only about him.


Bernd 07/10/2022 (Sun) 19:59:13 [Preview] No.48245 del
>>48244
It was about Kadyrov looking manly and cool all along.


Bernd 07/11/2022 (Mon) 00:57:36 [Preview] No.48249 del
Wondering about the pace of this war. The Russians seem to have learned from earlier mistakes, it's not often one hears about huge columns getting ambushed on the road as in Brovary anymore. They seem content to flatten the enemy with their artillery dominance for weeks and take tiny bits of territory. After repeating this for a couple months, territorial gains are locally significant and may force the Ukrainians to withdraw from vulnerable positions. This isn't encirclement warfare. There was talk of an encirclement in the Severodonetsk salient for a long time, and yet their timing wouldn't allow it - it's too slow to trap an encirclement-averse enemy. It might have been too slow even if the northern prong river crossing in early May had succeeded. Furthermore, trapping the enemy at the neck of their salient requires much longer frontlines and exposes attacks from more directions than nibbling away from the edge, this is a problem of geometry. For the manpower-starved Russians, the latter is much easier.

It's clear they'll take over the rest of Donetsk oblast in the following months, but how much time will be left for fighting this year? Where will they be when the mud season comes? What will be the next target? Kharkov is logistically easy, but it might be too big of a city to fight in.


Bernd 07/11/2022 (Mon) 06:13:02 [Preview] No.48250 del
I heard some time ago about the British talking about training 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers in 120 days.
6 months is reasonable for a soldier, so I had assumed they were putting together a few brigades of well trained troops that would be close to the level of a British soldier. 10,000 is not much in this war but 10,000 NATOesque soldiers could be used as a spearhead to take back Kherson or whatever you would have them do.

But no. That's not what they are doing. It's not 10,000 troops training there for 6 months, it's several intakes training there for several weeks at a time, only learning the basics.
It's odd. The Ukrainians can train cannon fodder themselves. The only advantage this brings is that they will be trained far away from Ukraine and so Russia cannot hit them while they train.


Bernd 07/11/2022 (Mon) 10:56:50 [Preview] No.48251 del
>>48241
>was wrong
It happens.

>>48249
Yeah, unless they actually make war the Russians won't have the weight to do an offensive of that scale. So they nibbling away.
Question is if the Ukrainians can direct the directions of their bites. First up to the line of Bakhmutka, where they can be hold up for a while, then slowly to the second line, where they'll hold 'em up more.
If Russians were get behind the second line from the north, the threat it poses could speed up the Ukrainian retreat.

>>48250
How could the Wekt defend Ukraine till the last drop of Ukrainian blood if the Ukrainians actually had a fighting chance?


Bernd 07/11/2022 (Mon) 13:38:26 [Preview] No.48253 del
(78.36 KB 671x699 insecam.jpg)
You can watch video streams from insecured ip-cameras here:
http://insecam.org/en/bycountry/UA/


Dutch bernd Bernd 07/13/2022 (Wed) 04:17:44 [Preview] No.48267 del
>>48253
>>48253
Kinda creepy tbh


Dutch bernd Bernd 07/13/2022 (Wed) 04:43:44 [Preview] No.48274 del
(31.14 KB 427x507 16348922178800.jpg)
2022 really has been a crazy year for everyone so far. INFA 100%, 2022 will be something for the history books


Bernd 07/13/2022 (Wed) 20:11:48 [Preview] No.48281 del
>>48138
>At least some of their bad news are probably this, in the vein of "our glorious military are very competent at holding off the moskals, they just need a new batch of 10.000 tanks and 50 million shells from the West".
It's hard to pretend to be confident and say that everything is going well, while creating bad news to inflate threat. These are really just too opposite things.

>>48147
Nowadays I see couple of explosions on the live map in the occupied areas and the separatist oblasts.
>has size like only 60k people.
That is quite big. If there weren't war just a peaceful country, that is a big pressure group, capable of all kinds of mischief. They would have to be occupied with something.
>They do nothing.
So basically they are just maintaining a threat, and keep couple of units away from the front.


Bernd 07/13/2022 (Wed) 20:28:31 [Preview] No.48282 del
Watch

https://youtube.com/watch?v=UIxD1WjT8Rw [Embed]


Bernd 07/14/2022 (Thu) 03:08:29 [Preview] No.48283 del
An M777 was captured by Lugansk. It's not in the best of conditions however.


Bernd 07/14/2022 (Thu) 05:09:36 [Preview] No.48284 del
>>48283
Yeah, looks a bit banged up.


Bernd 07/15/2022 (Fri) 06:25:44 [Preview] No.48289 del
My uncle booked a ticket to Ukraine(well not Ukraine directly of course).
I mentioned him talking about it a few months ago, I thought maybe what was happening there now and the British fighter death penalty thing would have changed his mind a bit but it didn't.
He's talking about settling down and getting a Ukrainian wife and bringing his sons over when the war ends... Real estate will be cheap at least.


Bernd 07/15/2022 (Fri) 06:57:09 [Preview] No.48290 del
Liveuamap lists events from a day before, which look like the events listed yesterday saying "a day ago". Ofc, some newer too, like from an hour ago, or three. Shelling Mikolaev.

>>48289
Hey, that is rightful EU clay, reserved for pure Germanic farmers.


Bernd 07/15/2022 (Fri) 07:22:00 [Preview] No.48291 del
Back to Mali for a minute.
Listing four articles, chiefly for meself later read.
1. France is stationing more forces in Niger and Chad to fight ‘terrorist groups’ amid 2,400 troops exiting from Mali.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/13/ahead-of-mali-withdraw-france-prepares-future-sahel-strategy
2. Malians are fleeing to nearby Mauritania to escape from bandits, fighters, the army and now Russian operatives.
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/28/russias-wagner-mercenaries-in-mali-drive-refugees-to-mauritania
3. The UN Security Council has extended a nine-year-old UN peacekeeping operation, known as MINUSMA, for another 12 months.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/30/mali-vows-to-defy-u-n-call-to-allow-peacekeepers-to-investigate-abuses
4. Bamako says it is suspending UN peacekeeper rotations for ‘national security’ reasons as relations between Mali and UN deteriorate.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/14/mali-suspends-all-new-un-peacekeeping-rotations
From the sound of it the Malian govt. intends to face the rebels without France. UN peacekeeping forces are in the way ofc, they are there to prevent fighting, and prevent the solution of one side eradicating the other. The conflict is going on since 2012, anyone who thinks the help what the consequent Malian governments got wasn't sufficient, I have to say those are right.
I assume the rebels (all the sides, Al Qaeda and ISIS related) fighting a guerrilla war, which means hiding among the general populace, and supported by them. In an asymmetrical war the general populace will suffer, flee, and spill over the borders. If the guerillas are targeted, the population is targeted. Unless they don't support the guerrillas, and they give out them.

The Real Reporter (mentioned here:) has a nice video about Mali:
https://invidious.snopyta.org/watch?v=P_SYCTZmnw8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=P_SYCTZmnw8 [Embed]
Note that Mamoud Ahmed Ali studied in Russia. Coincidence?


Bernd 07/15/2022 (Fri) 11:06:16 [Preview] No.48292 del
>>48291
I mean Momadou Sedibe. Or something the liek.


Bernd 07/15/2022 (Fri) 20:32:54 [Preview] No.48293 del
>>48151
>Or maybe this interception was only partial, failing to completely destroy the incoming missile, instead mostly knocking it off course. This has happened in the ukraine too with incoming cruise missiles partially diverted and causing civilian damage.
Back in the Gulf War, the news was full of the Scud strikes against Israel and then how the Patriots intercepted. And then how they doesn't really intercept them, just blowing up next to them and if they blow the Scuds too or just knocking them off course was 50-50.

>>48240
>He gave public interview were he praised Bandera as a hero
Yeah, that isn't political correct.
>previously called Scholz a "sorry liverwurst".
That counts as a pro. Ukrainian diplomats have to be pushy and rude to those who aren't quick to give everything and more. Germans are selling Ukraine to Russia by not forcing EU to embargo gas too afterall.


Bernd 07/16/2022 (Sat) 15:10:33 [Preview] No.48295 del
Russia is moving towards a central state controlled arms industry, like it was in soviet times. I wonder how that will change things, maybe T-14 will get built now.

>>48291
It's odd that they would ask a nation helping them to leave. I think that the Western way of fighting such groups might be hampered by the morals. If an African nation wants to suppress rebels it does so brutally and it could be that they feel France is preventing them from doing that.


Bernd 07/16/2022 (Sat) 15:44:51 [Preview] No.48296 del
Lotsa shelling, some movement over the Bakhmutka.
And that Kraken unit. The video has a bit of aftertaste of that Spetsnaz video mentioned ITT.

>>48295
Either by morals, or it could be they don't want to solve the problem (for various reasons), or both. Other explanations as well can be accepted.
But if there are UN troops on the ground, they could observe and report habbenings which could constitute as war crimes, or crimes against humanity, or similar, and this could discourage French troops to act with effective brutality - if they had any notion to act like that.


Bernd 07/17/2022 (Sun) 15:32:06 [Preview] No.48300 del
Ukraine is possibly going to receive F-15s and F-16s.
The US has approved a plan to train Ukrainians on US aircraft in the US.

I don't think it really helps at all. Ukraine already had equivalent aircraft and they didn't achieve anything with them(aside from the Ghost of Kiev of course).

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/07/15/house-authorizes-training-for-ukrainian-pilots-to-use-us-aircraft/


Bernd 07/17/2022 (Sun) 18:03:51 [Preview] No.48301 del
>>48300
Nothing helps 'em. It can prolong the war by couple of days.


Bernd 07/18/2022 (Mon) 16:19:35 [Preview] No.48307 del
>>48295
>It's odd that they would ask a nation helping them to leave.
There are old resentments at play and these are used in politics
Also, considering recent history, it might be more of what he says >>48296: the conflict provides a reason for France to prolong its deployment and ensure the permanence of military bases. Maybe there was no great urge to help them win decisively
Also, Paris kind of burned bridges with the new military govt because democracy and so on

>>48291
>and now Russian operatives.


Bernd 07/18/2022 (Mon) 16:36:22 [Preview] No.48308 del
>>48249
>The Russians seem to have learned from earlier mistakes,
They have switched to a more successful strategy of letting the Ukr army go to them, to the Donbass frontline, hauling their Nato toys all the way from around the Polish border (and having to haul them all the way back when repairs are needed), and battering them with heavy artillery. However, the response, which was not difficult to guess, should have been preempted but was not: longer-range weapons plus defenses against Russia's own long-range weapons like cruise missiles, e.g. via the Norwegian NASAMS being provided by USA too. So they still seem somewhat slow to react: for the past ~2 weeks they have faced regular cases of burning warehouses (for sure ammo depots in some cases, maybe volatile fertilisers in others; latest one today, again in Novaya Kakhovka, for the 3rd time or so in the last week) and fuel depots; they have also had to leave that infamous islet of ukro-propaganda in front of Odessa. These are likely the result of longer-range artillery provided by Nato, including the french Caesars and those GPS-targeted MLRS from USA. I remain sceptical about the effectivity of russia's "reactive" rather than proactive approach on the military side. So far, this judo-style counter-action seems to have worked better on the economic war. (Btw, US is providing the satellite surveillance of frontlines and rus supply chains, it's likely directing or at least advising which targets to hit, and then it provides the satellite targeting for the MLRS. What is Ukr doing? It receives some command about driving this or that way, and once in position it presses a button. Is this still a proxy war?)
>It's clear they'll take over the rest of Donetsk oblast in the following months
Hm. Lisichansk was done faster than Severodonetsk, and that was done faster than Mariupol, yet large part of heavily-fortified Donetsk oblast remains in Kiev's control after >3 months of fighting. With current tactics, at the current pace, by the time all donetsk is taken, kiev might already be capable of significant offensive actions. Weapons and equipments keep pouring in: from USA alone there's news of shipments amounting to several 100s of millions every week so (last one for ~$800M), add to that the EU shipments (today I read about another $500M batch in preparation), and amazingly nothing is done to try to physically arrest this flow. Meanwhile, what is moscow doing in preparation? Are they readying more troops? Are they turbo-charging production of military equipment and supplies? (Could the the merging of some military contractors [>>48295] be related to this?)
>but how much time will be left for fighting this year? Where will they be when the mud season comes?
We saw mud when snow thawed and some people called that "mud season" too. It didn't seem so bad. Nonetheless, at current tactics/pace, I doubt all Donetsk will be liberated before Autumn. The positions at Artemovsk and then Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-etc are some of the most heavily fortified.
>What will be the next target? Kharkov is logistically easy, but it might be too big of a city to fight in.
I have read there's another big Azov detachment there. Would they use it like Mariupol?
>>48293
>Yeah, that isn't political correct.
Funnily, he compared him to "Robin Hood" (you can hear it on that video)
>Germans are selling Ukraine to Russia by not forcing EU to embargo gas too afterall.
Actually, they want a full embargo on all fossil fuels, not just gas. I read about ukr govt officials sending letters to some big financial institutions which still do business with rus (e.g. banks or insurance companies) where they threaten to sue them on some international court for "committing war crimes" by "supporting" moscow.
>>48296
>And that Kraken unit.
Speaking of gangs whose ranks have been replenished with criminals: Ruslan Onischenko, ex-leader of the "Tornado" battalion, which was disbanded for rampant criminality of all sorts, was released from prison along with others and might be going back to donbass


Bernd 07/19/2022 (Tue) 19:30:38 [Preview] No.48328 del
Some gains. In the next couple of days we'll see if they could hit a gap in the defense or Ukrainians could adapt.
It seems they captured Bilohorovka now and moving further west from there.


Bernd 07/19/2022 (Tue) 20:24:35 [Preview] No.48330 del
(255.18 KB 1200x803 inflation-12-months.jpg)
EU wants to allow relatively free flow of food and stuff and foodstuff.
picrel #2 inflation in EU countries in the past 12 months. Uh, most countries can be figured out which is which despite Hungarian captions. I hope.


Bernd 07/19/2022 (Tue) 20:26:01 [Preview] No.48331 del
>>48330
Oh, lightblue is Eurozone average.


Bernd 07/22/2022 (Fri) 01:14:38 [Preview] No.48349 del
>>48308
>We saw mud when snow thawed and some people called that "mud season" too. It didn't seem so bad.
It might've been related to some of their convoy losses, with commanders keeping their columns on paved roads when the ground got too muddy.


Bernd 07/25/2022 (Mon) 02:26:31 [Preview] No.48374 del
MI6 and the CIA are both saying that Russia has lost about 15,000 soldiers so far. That sounds reasonable but then who really knows what the state of the war is like. It's still quite a reduction from the way their previous claims were heading, I remember them claiming 10,000 dead about a month after the war began.


Bernd 07/25/2022 (Mon) 15:35:04 [Preview] No.48376 del
>>48308
>Actually, they want a full embargo on all fossil fuels, not just gas.
They already embargoed everything but gas. But gas is the most problematic, it's not just us who against it. Btw since then it seems the Nord Stream will restart soon. Also cutting gas use by 15% is the target for all till next March.
>gangs [...] criminals
Can't make effective units out of altar boys.

>>48349
Could be. Afraid from stuck in the mud, they saw they make good pace on the road without much resistance. Until they got resistance'd.

>>48374
Perhaps. But the question is the same which was at the beginning in case of the Ukraine reported Russian losses. With or without the people's republics?


Bernd 07/25/2022 (Mon) 18:48:23 [Preview] No.48377 del
(3.20 MB 1280x720 should-have-done-q.mp4)


Bernd 07/26/2022 (Tue) 15:52:16 [Preview] No.48381 del
(408.64 KB 877x1092 ZZC 0360.jpg)
Poland seems to be quite nervous about all this. They have ordered 366 Abrams(250 SEP V3s and also another contract for 116 ex-Marine Abrams), 180 K2 tanks, they are buying K9 Howitzers, Korean fighter jets, Patriot systems, drones and they want 500 HIMARS systems, the list just goes on I'm not even going to bother linking it all.
This means they will be operating 3 western MBTs, the Leopard 2, the Abrams and the K2 and they are going to have a very large number of them too for a western power. This is only going to cause headaches and is something that one would only do if they were desperately after any tanks they could get in as short a time as possible. They must really fell threatened by this war.



https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_july_2022_global_security_army_industry/poland_plans_to_acquire_180_south_korean_k2_main_battle_tanks.html
https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_july_2022_global_security_army_industry/first_batch_of_28_us_m1a2_abrams_tanks_for_polish_army_arrives_in_poland.html

I don't know why they are so bothered really, the Ukrainians say the Russians are going to be pushed out of Kherson by September.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/07/24/ukraine-kherson-liberated/


Bernd 07/26/2022 (Tue) 16:16:00 [Preview] No.48382 del
Russians captured that power station next to the lake.


Bernd 07/26/2022 (Tue) 16:17:43 [Preview] No.48383 del
>>48381
Shit.


Bernd 07/28/2022 (Thu) 04:39:50 [Preview] No.48387 del
>Citing information from the Polish Minister of Defense Mariusz Błaszczak, Poland plans to increase the military power of its armed forces to reach manpower of 300,000 soldiers. Currently, the armed forces of Poland are around 120,000 people.

>According to a modernization plan of the Polish armed forces published on the Internet, Poland plans to acquire 180 K2 MBTs (Main Battle Tanks) from 2022 to 2025 and another batch of 820 K2 tanks with deliveries beginning in 2026.

>In terms of artillery systems, Poland would like to acquire 672 K9 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers manufactured by the South Korean company Hanwha Defense.

>For the Polish Air Force, Poland will replace the Soviet-made Su-22 and MiG-29 fighter aircraft. It is planned to purchase 12 South Korean KAI FA-50 Block 10 light combat aircraft and 36 South Korean KAI FA-50PL units.

...

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_july_2022_global_security_army_industry/poland_signs_contracts_with_south_korea_to_purchase_k2_tanks_k9_howitzers_fa-50_fighter.html


Bernd 07/28/2022 (Thu) 04:40:40 [Preview] No.48388 del
I'm Japanese now for some reason. I actually don't mind this.


Bernd 07/28/2022 (Thu) 19:42:43 [Preview] No.48392 del
They occupying areas with a pace which makes me think they managed a breakthrough. I guess Ukrainians are retreating to the line of Bakhmutka river.


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 11:39:52 [Preview] No.48395 del
It looks like the POW camp where the people that surrendered in Mariupol was hit by Ukrainian HIMARs, around 50 are dead and 200 injured so far but they are still clearing the wreckage. The DPR said it was done to silence Avoz battalion testimonies of war crimes, Russia says it was done to stop Ukrainians surrendering and the UDF released a statement saying they did not do it and that it was Russia covering up murders.

Hmmm.... I don't really see why they would be murdering them now that they already have them securely in custody and if they did I think they would come up with something less extreme. The Russians and the DPR also released separate explanations for the attack, like they actually where just reacting to it and that it was not a pre planned thing.
But we all know how it seems to be, in this world people will just pick whatever version of events it is that suits their own world view, it's a post fact world as they say.

>>48392
I don't think it's that quick. They have cleared the way to Bakmat now though. I was going to say that if they manage to swiftly take Bakmut then we would know it's a breakthrough but Lyschansk and Sveirodentsk fell fairly quickly anyway, much quicker than I thought they would. So the same might happen with Bakmut, though Bakmut is not as isolated as the other two.

>>48394
Apparently they are the ones that took the power station and Pokrovske, them and the DPR.


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 14:25:51 [Preview] No.48396 del
>>48395
I think it's believable Ukrainian military struck the camp (or prison as I read elsewhere). Not for shady intentions, but by mistake. Happens.
Yes, everyone can blame those who are the most convenient for them.

>them and the DPR.
That would make sense. It's not Russia they are working for but a sovereign country...


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 14:26:24 [Preview] No.48397 del
>>48396
Uh I mean another sovereign country.


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 14:56:43 [Preview] No.48398 del
>>48396
That's the most likely explanation. The Ukrainians know where the camp is though, so them hitting it like that would indicate poor communication in-between the Ukrainian army.


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 18:11:17 [Preview] No.48400 del
(160.69 KB 1000x563 timbuktu_1.jpg)
Another video by Real Reporter about Mali, the conflict there this time.
https://invidious.kavin.rocks/watch?v=IBWgRuP_wCc
https://youtube.com/watch?v=IBWgRuP_wCc [Embed]


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 18:29:08 [Preview] No.48401 del
(16.18 KB 650x650 asshole-gunner.jpeg)
>>48398
Maybe they're scraping the bottom of the barrel for gunners.


Bernd 07/29/2022 (Fri) 22:20:28 [Preview] No.48403 del
>>48395 >>48396
That's an interesting fuck-up. Makes me think of the shameless, and at this point quite trite since it's been going on since the 2014 strikes on Donbass, deflection of "the rebels/russians are shelling themselves" (which are ofc also repeated uncritically by the lazy propagandists of the "western" world, and from there to great part of the rest of the world). If they really struck that prison, as the fragments of mlrs rockets would suggest, then it would turn out they literally "shelled themselves" (apart from the prison guards also hurt). In fact, I have read that there were in that building some POW from the batch that surrendered in Azovstal, so they possibly killed some of their dear Azov "heroes" which their propaganda claimed were "evacuated" from Mariupol.
(Thinking out loud, if the rockets used were the GPS-guided himars, then US probably could, if it wanted, provide evidence by showing records from the satellites used for targeting. Although, yeah, I see no reason why they would want to do it.)

Misc bits of news I read during the week:
- Germany has charged one of its citizens, a woman named Alina Lipp, for publishing claims about the war which are criminalised in germany. She faces possibly 3 years in prison. They took money from her bank account and told her she isn't invited to a court hearing because reasons. She is (or was) reporting from the donbass. She's apparently german-russian. She's pretty. Anyway, tell me again how "the west" cares about freedom of expression and blah blah.
- Transnistria was on the news again: Representatives of the region have stated (not for the 1st time) that they would seek (complete) independence and subsequent accession into the RF, as was the commitment of a 2006 referendum. Moldova's FM responded by calling for withdrawal of the rus peacekeeper detachment (there for ~30 years). Moscow rejected that. Around the same time, a ukrainian officer called Butusov (again) publicly offered Moldova a joint operation to against Transnistria. Soon after another uke official, Filipenko, stated that Kiev "is interested in the speedy elimination" of the PMR (= Pridnestrovie = Transnistria).
- A car was attacked in Kherson with a side-road IED. A police car. 1 policeman was killed and another was injured. This might be the 3rd or 4th local killed (on top of several more injured) by kiev-sponsored terrorism in that region.
- Saw a report saying that every day ~150 ukie civilians return to areas controlled by russia/ldnr. Considering the previous item, unless rus/ldnr does a good job of screening them, this could provide abundant opportunity for infiltration and more terrorism.


Bernd 07/30/2022 (Sat) 03:53:48 [Preview] No.48405 del
>>48401
Apparently one of the ammunition storehouses they hit was actually a warehouse for phosphorus or something like that. I don't think it's an issue with gunners but target identification.

>>48403
>Transnistria was on the news again: Representatives of the region have stated (not for the 1st time) that they would seek (complete) independence and subsequent accession into the RF, as was the commitment of a 2006 referendum. Moldova's FM responded by calling for withdrawal of the rus peacekeeper detachment (there for ~30 years). Moscow rejected that. Around the same time, a ukrainian officer called Butusov (again) publicly offered Moldova a joint operation to against Transnistria. Soon after another uke official, Filipenko, stated that Kiev "is interested in the speedy elimination" of the PMR (= Pridnestrovie = Transnistria).

Russia would dearly love for that to happen. It would give them all the justification they need to annex the region and to invade Moldova.


Bernd 07/30/2022 (Sat) 22:17:51 [Preview] No.48409 del
>>48396
>>48403
This is the most confusing strike in the war. For someone with zero further information, a deliberate artillery strike on a POW camp by the military holding the prisoners still makes more sense than a strike by the military the prisoners come from. The ones holding the prisoners captive are the ones most hostile to them, and as it's their territory, it's easier to fake. Yet the only reason for this roundabout, inefficient, needlessly complex method of execution would be to minimize the PR loss instead of just hanging them or using firing squads. And the Russians have PR value to extract from those prisoners by war crimes trials.
This value would be limited, mostly internal, as in the West any such trials will be dismissed as show trials and the testimonies, claimed to be made under duress and so on. Which might be true or not. As Ukrainian and Western audiences wouldn't be strongly influenced by such trials, the Ukrainian military doesn't really need to kill the prisoners, either. If their chain of command isn't too strong, maybe it could've been the work of some commanders on their own initiative. Or high command is divided on this but the pro-strike faction pushed through.

On the other hand, Ukrainian strikes on Donetsk are very simple.


Bernd 07/31/2022 (Sun) 09:47:24 [Preview] No.48415 del
>>48381
>Poland seems to be quite nervous about all this
>They must really fell threatened by this war.
I prefer the term historical experience. Also we sent our tanks on Ukraine, those needs to be replaced with something. The only thing that worries me is that our goverment is incopetent and they will screw something badly.

I remember when I was a teenager stupid people here (libtards) would often say we don't need army anymore because we are in NATO, and so they would oppose goverment spending money on military. There's even this graffiti near place I live that was made in 2020 at the beggining of covid epidemic, "sell the tanks, buy soap". It was made by local an*rchists or something. Hopefully this war is going to be a solid wake up call for those people, or at least pressure them to be silent with their stupid opinions. I wish police would have investigated and jailed the graffiti makers as some kind of russian agents but it seems unlikely.


Bernd 07/31/2022 (Sun) 17:37:48 [Preview] No.48422 del
>>48409
I think a deliberate attack makes no sense for either side. LDNR/Russia could have simply sentenced them to die by firing squad if they really wanted them dead. Why shell the whole building, injuring or killing their own guards (8 apparently), and leaving many survivors to tell the tale? And why now, after months of feeding and housing them? Similarly, why would Kiev be right now so urged to "silence" its own soldiers when statements by POW can be (and has been) easily dismissed as being the result of coercion? The only half-way believable reason would be that Kiev feared they would reveal (or suspected them to have revealed) some sensitive intelligence. But that's very iffy: a survivor would be even more motivated to incriminate them.
But if it was accidental it is much more likely to have come from the Kiev side simply because Rus/LNDR artillery/rockets are pointing away and not towards themselves. And if the rockets can be confirmed as himars, then that would close the case. Of course, that requires cooperation from the Kiev/USA side, so there's basically 0 chance for clarification for the foreseeable future.
Apparently UN will set up a commission to investigate this incident. Unfortunately, "retaliation" against other POW may have already started: I've seen images purporting to show, if not fake, a prisoner (maybe rus/ldnr) with something like an axe embedded in his back and another (maybe ukr) apparently having had his genital area stabbed (accusations of rape and so on). Sadly this shit has the potential to get more war-crimey rather than less

Misc:
- Montenegro has decided to show what good boy they are by aping the EU's economic-warfare measures towards russia (even though they are not members) and began sequestering assets belonging to russians citizens
- Slovakia's govt has apparently said it intends to transfer 11 MiG-29s to Kiev by the end of august
- Ukr has been scattering (apparently mortar-launched) anti-personnel mines again. Previously I saw reports of these dropped over the area of the Lisichansk refinery and later near a town called Yasinovataya. These time is over Donetsk city itself. Use of these mines is forbidden under the Ottawa convention (in part because children often mistake them for toys), ie. it's a "war crime". There are casualties reported.
- Turkey has said that grain shipments from Ukr may start to leave port soon. It is interesting that under the agreement inked at Constantinople, Ukr will *not* remove the mines. Instead they said they are confident they can provide "safe routes" that avoid them... What could possibly go wrong?
- Asking for it: Estonia have sentenced a 43 years old truck driver surnamed Shilov, with estonian and russian citizenships, to 1 year in jail (4 months required, 8 months suspended) and fined him €1600 for crowdfunding and buying 3 small civilian drones which, it is alleged, he intended to gift to rus troops. 2 other truckers were also fined €1200 for donating money to Shilov for the purchase. Meanwhile, holding crowdfunds for military-grade Baryaktars to gift to Kiev is just fine.
- Provocation in Crimea: Today, while rus is commemorating naval forces, a ukr drone has attacked a building associated with the navy in Sevastopol. Reportedly 6 people have been injured, 4 seriously. Considering Sevastopol is such an important stronghold, this is embarrassing leaky air defense


Bernd 08/01/2022 (Mon) 14:51:29 [Preview] No.48431 del
>>48415
>we don't need army anymore because we are in NATO,
I have similar memories. What kind of military alliance needs members without an army? Imagine everyone disbanded the army who entered.


Bernd 08/01/2022 (Mon) 16:29:15 [Preview] No.48432 del
There are tensions around China and Serbia as well.

It's older news but some US politician who is the third most important in the US is talking about going to Taiwan and the Chinese are not happy and are threatening reprisals if she does.
Of course China relies heavily on imports and would be cut of from most of that very quickly in the event of any hostilities and I doubt the increasing imports from Russia will make up for that.
So it's unclear what they will actually do, maybe they will launch a few missiles into Taiwan just to send a message or it will be done economically or diplomatically somehow. They could certainly cause more issue regarding the Russian sanctions and the Ukraine war in general.
Some people think they might get to the point where they think that they have reached the point where they there economic collapse is inevitable due to demographics or whatever and they will no longer care about the effects of a war on their economy, Peter Zeihan said that a while ago. I don't think they will collapse, I think the future is not going to be as good to them as the past but a collapse is extreme.
I think, if they were really willing to stomach pain and hardship, then they could start a war and take Taiwan, Taiwan is close enough that even if the Chinese were unable to physically invade it they could cut it off and pummel it until such a time as they could invade it. But the economic effects would be severe so I don't think they will.

The Kosovians, Kosovites, Kosovos, or whatever(I don't know) are implementing a law that remover Serbian drivers licences and other such identifications form Serbians in Kosovo which would make it hard for them to interact with Serbia and to do things like visit relatives. Seems like they are trying to de-Serb them. The Kosovite Serbs are not happy about it and neither is Serbia.


Bernd 08/01/2022 (Mon) 19:00:20 [Preview] No.48434 del
>>48432
Taiwan Tune again.
>Kosovo
KFOR commander is Hungarian.
It's Kosovan I think.
It's about Serbian IDs and Serbian license plates containing Kosovan town names.


Bernd 08/02/2022 (Tue) 18:46:11 [Preview] No.48436 del
>>48403
Freedom of speech isn't among any European values. It's an American constitutional right. Along with the right to bear arms. And in the US it's still taken seriously. While a part of US society will gank on people for certain opinion, and even try to silence those opinions, still the only one country in the world where a freedom of speech supporting website can be hosted relatively safely.
Anyway in Europe freedom of speech is always matched to other human rights, and mulled over if someone's such right can trump over others different rights, so it's always relativized.
Meanwhile in Russia the phenomenon (freedom of speech) doesn't even exist, not even on a theoretical level. You can get jailed for calling this thing a war.

>>48405
>invade Moldova.
Gonna be lotsa work for one day.

>>48409
I read today, according to Ukrainian exberts Russians blew a vacuum bomb there.

>>48422
>grain shipments
This is interesting. I think Russia blocks/blocked Ukraine from sending the grain transports, and Turkey blocks Russian ships - because there would be Russian grain to export too. So it's a double blockade.


Bernd 08/03/2022 (Wed) 05:04:37 [Preview] No.48437 del
Well Pelosi did go to China, China is not happy about it and has announced targeted military operations. It's vague and so far they have just announced drills.
This could all be a bluff and they won't do anything. There are some outlying Islands that they could take, such as one that lies right along the coast of China so China would easily be able to take it from China and Chian would not be able to do anything about it. Or launch a few missiles or something like that as I mentioned before, to save face they have to do something and I don't know if drills alone will be enough. Though they do control the media in China so they can twist the narrative and say that they launched drills in the area and it chased off the Americans or something. But that won't work internationally.


Bernd 08/03/2022 (Wed) 06:24:15 [Preview] No.48438 del
>>48437
Oh the Sweet Drama.


Bernd 08/03/2022 (Wed) 20:57:12 [Preview] No.48439 del
>>48432 >>48434
And there was that Turkish "mini-operation", some months ago, against the kurdistan militants in Iraq, which wasn't much mentioned here, but was also an invasion. Most recently on this front there was that strike, some weeks ago, which went SNAFU on northern Iraq, apparently killing/injuring dozens of civilians.
And there is the "pending" Turkish offensive on northern Syria: they have moved equipment and there has been some shelling but, so far it's been mostly skirmishes between the HTS and Damascus forces.
Relatedly, a couple of days ago US announced a drone strike in Afghanistan, which has apparently killed an al Qaeda leader called al-Zawahir. Funny how US kills al qaeda/nusra in one country and supports them in another (Syria). Those are some pliable "values".
Aaand now we have to add a flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh: there are claims of clashes in the region called Artsakh. Particularly important is a vulnerable corridor which connects that region to Armenia. There are some drone-strike videos too, but I can't really tell if they are legitimate or older material from 2020. Since the peace-deal/capitulation back in 2020 it was widely assumed that Azerbaijan wouldn't really stay put, instead they would wait until all armenian-proper forces withdraw (per the agreement) and then move to take everything when only the (russian) peacekeeping forces are left (more like a militarised police than an army). Maybe that's what we are seeing now. Cynical me also thinks that this may be due to Turkey colluding with Azerbaijan to put pressure on Russia as "retaliation" for Moscow not yet green-lighting the turkish operation/invasion in northern Syria.

>>48432 >>48437
About the Taiwan provocation and how Beijing would respond. (Btw, this is a clear violation of bilateral commitments by the US. Pic related: US had agreed to maintain only unofficial, non-governmental relations with Taipei. But this visit is by the 3rd most important official, a member of the ruling party, and has been endorsed by the White House when they stated that she "had a right" to visit Taipei.)
I think it clearly depends on whether Beijing really really wants to pursue the "peaceful reunification" path, which would take several more years, or whether it would be Ok resigning itself to the military conflict which is the obviously US intention behind this undermining of "one china" policy. If the former, then it does not make sense to take the bait, it does not make sense to retaliate against Taiwan as a whole. The response should be either towards USA or towards the DPP leadership.
When playing chess, you do not blindly swallow a sacrificial pawn that was sent to threaten/provoke you, instead you usually create a proportional counter-threat (or you retreat). Or, when playing Weiqi/Go, usually you respond to the adversary's ko by creating another ko or ko threat against him (or you forfeit a front).
When the USSR wanted those US missiles out of Turkey, it didn't blindly threaten this pawn of its adversary, instead it created in Cuba a corresponding threat against its adversary. Dangerous game, but well played it resulted in a mutual defusing of threats and a new thoughtfulness in considering each-other's "red lines".
Taiwan is the sacrificial pawn here. If at all possible, Beijing's response should be against US core interests, in the same way Taiwan is considered a core interest for Beijing.
Or, maybe, the response could be against the DPP leadership. IIRC, the mainland has already secretly indicted some of the island's political elites for "secession". I don't know what the penalty for that would be under their system, but since US herself has set a precedent for extrajudicially and extraterritorially drone-striking foreigner VIPs like Soleimani, I'm pretty sure drone-striking those considered criminals under your own jurisdiction (per one-china) would not be charting new territory. Unsavory and maybe dishonourable, but would it be effective? There's also the option of doing it clandestinely, Israel-style, as I mentioned in a differ


Bernd 08/03/2022 (Wed) 21:21:54 [Preview] No.48440 del
>>48439 (post got cut again)
...clandestinely, Israel-style, as I mentioned in a different context.
OTOH if beijing feels really confident that it can relatively quickly solve the issue militarily perhaps they would want to take the bait after all. Though AIUI knee-jerk reactions are quite uncharacteristic for China, and let's not forget that in this year already one other big country found itself "hooked" after misjudging the softness of the dangling bait and the animosity of the baiters at the other end of the fishing line.

>>48436
I'm sure the speech-freedom gauge differs in east and west for different topics. But...
>You can get jailed for calling this thing a war.
I have heard these claims months ago. I suspect it's a fake. For example, I have seen clip from russian political talk show on TV where people call it war/vоijna. Maybe our local russian poster can clarify but seems to be BS. What does seem to be true is that one can get detained and fined for making "unauthorised" anti-war protests. Don't know if this is specifically about "antiwar protests" or about "unauthorised protests" in general, but anyway fines are apparently not high (I read about low $ hundreds) and most antiwar protest enthusiasm seems to have petered after those videos from March showing abuse/execution of rus/ldnr POW
>Russia blocks/blocked
For months before the deal mediated by Turkey, Moscow has been denying blocking non-military ships, as long as they use specific "green corridors". I'm sure it was not unconditional. For example, I have read that they wanted access to the ships so that they could be inspected for military equipment, and pic related from May has the UK MoD claiming that they wanted economic-war measures lifted.
On the other hand, Kiev has, after a long time of blaming rus for it, admitted to having deployed mines on its own shores to forestall a rus amphibious operation. This is corroborated by the UK MoD in the same pic (pixelated is some "intelligence" propaganda). In fact, at least one civilian has died after triggering a mine in the waters of an Odessa beach (vid related).
>Turkey blocks Russian ship
I know that Turkey, per the Montreux agreement, limits military ships from crossing the Bosphorus (ships from warring sides, including allied blocs like NATO, cannot cross, though those from Black Sea states can return to port). However, I don't know if non-military ships from Black Sea states can be blocked under that agreement. Maybe they aren't blocking them because I read last week about a shipment of grain from Russia to Syria seized in Lebanon after Ukraine accused it of carrying grain harvested from ukr territories under rus/lndr control.

Misc:
- Last 27/7 there was a ukr suicide drone attack on the border checkpoint of the rus oblast of Bryansk. Ukr published the footage claiming they targeted some rus security service agents. Moscow said the men were actually citizens of Moldova doing some visa paperwork. Moldova's foreign affairs ministry confirmed these were their citizens: https://www.moldpres.md/en/news/2022/07/27/22005588, https://www.ipn.md/en/moldovan-dies-in-bryansk-region-blast-7967_1091320.html . One was killed immediately, the other Moldovan citizen which in that article is reported as injured has since died too.
- Kiev has ordered the "mandatory evacuation" of residents of Donetsk oblast still under their control (said to be more than 200k). They claim this is done because they cannot not provide civilians with sufficient heating in upcoming months. I suspect they actually would like to use the urban areas as a battlefield while avoiding the criticism they will get if they again do as in Mariupol with people still there. Meanwhile there are ukr soldiers who have admitted that the locals are not loyal to Kiev and are waiting for the "liberators"


Bernd 08/04/2022 (Thu) 09:19:18 [Preview] No.48443 del
Well it looks like the Russians are launching an offensive, they are launching assaults on quite a large front. Maybe the Ukrainian army has finally been broken, maybe not, we will see.


Bernd 08/04/2022 (Thu) 10:23:34 [Preview] No.48444 del
>>48439
>There are some drone-strike videos too, but I can't really tell if they are legitimate or older material from 2020.
It's impossible to tell. This is the problem with Ukraine drone footage too.

>About the Taiwan provocation and how Beijing would respond.
Pelosi is literally noone. Doing nothing there. She is perfect because she isn't governmental. US did not violate anything.
>picrel
>acknowledges the Chinese position
This doesn't mean the US said there is no Taiwan, or ROC. This just means they heard China saying that.

>they actually would like to use the urban areas as a battlefield
The second defensible line there consist entirely from a chain of settlements.

>>48443
It really looks like an offensive started. From Izium to south, and in the east towards Bakhmutka.


Bernd 08/05/2022 (Fri) 09:11:57 [Preview] No.48445 del
>>48443
Some going at the power station and lake.


Bernd 08/07/2022 (Sun) 20:30:07 [Preview] No.48458 del
Yeah, they crawling up to the line of Bakhmutka.


Bernd 08/16/2022 (Tue) 04:30 [Preview] No.48491 del
Not much has changed, they are still grinding down the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian Kherson offensive looks like it's not going to happen, maybe it never was going to happen. I think it might have been posturing for the public while really what they were doing was reinforcing the area to prevent a Russian offensive, I have heard talk of such a thing but it's not happened. But maybe the Ukranians actually were preparing for an offensive, were still unable to and so just said 'actually it's the Russian trying to launch an offensive and look they are failing, not us we were never launching an offensive'.

But anyway, whatever the reason for this they pulled forces from Donbas to do it whihc has left Avdivka weaker and so the DPR are launching attacks in the area, they have taken Pesky and are staring to attack the next village along, green arrows are where they could go next. It could be part of a move to encircle Avdivka or threaten to do so and make the Ukrainians pull out.

There is fighting all up the front but not serious it seems, a few villages have been taken though, Wagner group took a foothold in Bakmut and like wise the Russians are slowly advancing in Soldedar and other places.

Once they breach this line they only have one more to get through and then it's open terrain until the Dniper. How long that is going to take is unclear however, it could carry on at the current pace but likewise the Ukrainian army could break and it could accelerate, who knows.

Apparently the Russians were massing an armoured force in Russia opposite Khakiv, but it's unclear what for, probably not to attack Khakiv at least not yet. A village was taken in the area though.

HIMARS are talked about a lot. They are doing damage, we frequently see targets being hit in the Russian rear, however Russia has been doing that to Ukraine for the entire war, that alone is not enough to change the war.
The number of systems in Ukraine is fairly small but I don't think that matters too much, what is more important is how many missiles they have not the number of vehicles to launch them. This will be a continuing issue for Russia as even if Ukraine only has one system, that still means they can hit Russian rear targets. But as I said, it's still more of a nuisance than anything else.


Bernd 08/16/2022 (Tue) 10:45 [Preview] No.48492 del
>>48491
>The Ukrainian Kherson offensive looks like it's not going to happen, maybe it never was going to happen.
I suspect so. I think they just shoot couple of shots at the town with HIMARS. Why with that? Because there were rarely any explosions in Russian occupied or secessionist lands before they got those weapons.
>not us we were never launching an offensive'.
It's similar situation to the Russian initial attack. They rolled the dice, failed and said they were there to distract Ukrainian forces. Plan B becomes the "always this was the real plan".
>it's still more of a nuisance than anything else.
Apparently some airplanes got destroyed.


Bernd 08/18/2022 (Thu) 10:36 [Preview] No.48496 del
Does Ukrainian military vehicles run on Russian diesel?
If Urp has a hard time finding a drop of oil product to fill their cars, and they pay the price of gold now for it, if not Russia is the source then, how Ukrainians do it?

Also intersting site, source of the picrels
https://www.militaryfactory.com/


Bernd 08/18/2022 (Thu) 10:37 [Preview] No.48497 del
>>48496
*Do...


Bernd 08/21/2022 (Sun) 10:24 [Preview] No.48519 del
Hmmm.....

The Ukrainians reported that the southern part of Blahodatne has been taken by an attack coming from the direction of Vasylki. The arrow shows where that attack is coming from on the map and as one can see, it's reasonably far behind the lines. This Kherson offensive is not going well for them.


Bernd 08/21/2022 (Sun) 20:21 [Preview] No.48521 del
>>48519
Probably not gonna happen.
Is there any news about new weapon shipments from the West?


Bernd 08/22/2022 (Mon) 02:30 [Preview] No.48522 del
>>48521
Yes.

>This new military aid from the United States worth $750 million includes:

>Additional ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, known as HIMARS.

>16 105 mm howitzers, along with 36,000 rounds for the artillery. The United Kingdom has supplied 105 mm howitzers to Ukraine in the past.

>15 ScanEagle unmanned aerial systems for reconnaissance.

>Mine clearing systems, including 40 MaxxPro Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles with mine rollers that will allow Ukraine to neutralize areas heavily mined by Russia in the south and east.

>Additional high-speed, anti-radiation missiles, known as HARM missiles, for integration into Ukrainian aircraft to seek and destroy Russian radars.

>1,500 tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided anti-tank missiles, known as TOWs.

>1,000 Javelin anti-armor systems.

>2,000 anti-armor rounds to be used in existing anti-armor systems, many of which have already been provided by allies and partners such as the Carl Gustaf weapon developed by Sweden.

>Other security assistance includes 50 Humvees, tactical secure communication systems, demolition munitions, night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics and laser rangefinders.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_august_2022_global_security_army_industry/us_approves_new_military_aid_to_ukraine_including_more_himars_rocket_launchers_and_artillery_systems.html


It looks like they are running out of weapons to give. They are giving them 105mm guns instead of 155mmm ones and they are giving them TOWs now as well.


Bernd 08/22/2022 (Mon) 04:13 [Preview] No.48523 del
>>48522
>It looks like they are running out of weapons to give
Could be. Leftover was passed on now they could only give if they took the equipment of the active units. But they need it for NATO until the new orders are delivered.


Bernd 08/22/2022 (Mon) 20:49 [Preview] No.48526 del
>>48522
>They are giving them 105mm guns instead of 155mmm ones and they are giving them TOWs now as well.
>It looks like they are running out of weapons to give.

Most likely they giving things that otherwise will be dumped. 105mm is clearly outdated in every field except very high mobile forces, and will be phased out from any modern army in future anyway.


Bernd 08/23/2022 (Tue) 07:17 [Preview] No.48528 del
>>48526
>very high mobile forces
Maybe they can do couple of shots in "fire and scurry" scenarios, set up the battery fire a salvo to the coordinates given, then pack up and leave before the reply strike arrives. Perhaps they can come up with a solution that quicken the deployment, which don't need much of a work to pack the thing together to march ready.


Bernd 08/24/2022 (Wed) 02:20 [Preview] No.48536 del
Hmm.... I wonder what this will include.

The US also thinks the Russians are preparing for a massive air campaign, they are saying that there is an abnormally high amount of activity in Belarus and that some airfields in Belarus are being defended by far too much AA.

>>48526
New Zealand and the UK gave them some a while ago as well, but it makes sense for New Zealand to have them because they are quit mountainous.


Bernd 08/24/2022 (Wed) 12:09 [Preview] No.48537 del
>>48536
>New Zealand has army
The Australian Ministry of Offense lied to me?


Bernd 08/24/2022 (Wed) 21:38 [Preview] No.48540 del
>>48526
I guess even outdated artillery helps when they need all the volume of fire they can get. But if it has shorter range it might be vulnerable to counter-battery fire.

>>48536
>The US also thinks the Russians are preparing for a massive air campaign, they are saying that there is an abnormally high amount of activity in Belarus and that some airfields in Belarus are being defended by far too much AA.
What's the role of aircraft in the balance of technology in the field? I haven't heard of Russian airstrikes being decisive, only artillery, and they couldn't even knock out the whole Ukrainian air force. It also seems both sides have to be careful around each other's AA.

I also wonder how the Ukrainians managed to hit that airbase in Crimea. Whatever it was, it was a major Russian failure.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 05:20 [Preview] No.48545 del
>>48540
People often use the air campaign over Iraq as a comparison to this war but I think this is a mistake, Iraqi air defence was useless as was their entire Armed forces, so it was easy to destroy their AA and then tear apart the rest of the nations military and logistic capacity and the army was not really that motivated or able to do anything about it or push through it.
Whereas, Germany was bombed all through the war and bombed much harder than Ukraine has been, yet they still fought on.

Russia has not been able to deal with Ukraine's air defence on a strategic level only a tactical one. Right from the start people were surprised that there was no large scale SEAD operation before the war but Ukraine is not Iraq. It seems Russia has the ability to launch strikes anywhere in Ukraine but only with cruise missiles and that does not seem to have achieved much and Ukraine certainly seems to still be able to operate through it.
So this air campaign from Belarus might be a large scale SEAD operation and then following that they will start decimating Ukrainian logistics. Or it's actually nothing at all.

It seems they are using drones to do that. These targets they are hitting are all in the open, like the fuel at that airport or the temporary ammunition cache in a field they hit. Russia air defence has been operating much more effectively since then though, so maybe they were just caught being complacent.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 13:50 [Preview] No.48547 del
Okay, here are the details of the newest package.

>Six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) with additional munitions for NASAMS;
>Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
>Up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition;
>Up to 24 counter-artillery radars;
>Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and support equipment for Scan Eagle UAS systems;
>VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems;
>Laser-guided rocket systems;
>Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.

Also it says this.

>This USAI package, which is being announced on Ukraine Independence Day, underscores the U.S. commitment to supporting Ukraine over the long term – representing a multi-year investment to build the enduring strength of Ukraine's Armed Forces as it continues to defend its sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression. Unlike Presidential Drawdown (PDA), which DoD has continued to leverage to deliver equipment to Ukraine from DoD stocks at a historic pace, USAI is an authority under which the United States procures capabilities from the industry. This announcement represents the beginning of a contracting process to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid- and long-term to ensure Ukraine can continue to defend itself as an independent, sovereign and prosperous state. It is the biggest tranche of security assistance for Ukraine to date.

So it's not from US stocks, but they are actually going out and buying it, that explains NASAMS. it's a Norwegian/US system, the US brought two for Ukraine before but it seems that the deal is taking a while to implement. This foreshadows the rest of this package quite well, it's not coming from US stocks so it's going to have to be brought and even made before it gets to Ukraine. 245,000 155mm Rounds is certainly a lot but if that's actually 245,000 rounds delivered over two years or more then that's not so much.
And also it looks like I was right, they did run out of things to give to Ukraine.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_august_2022_global_security_army_industry/us_announces_usd_2.98_billion_in_additional_military_aid_to_ukraine.html

In other news, Putin signed a degree to increase the size of the Russian army to 1.15 Million, so adding 137,000 to what it has. I'm not sure what form it's taking though, whether this is more conscripts or not. Russia is forming many new brigades right now both of Russians and also of people from Kherson and what they control of Zaprozhia oblast so this could just be adding that to the official strength.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 15:05 [Preview] No.48548 del
The UA WAR Data Map got updated again, well a few days ago it did. This map has issues with Ukrainian units, it did not even update their locations for a very long time, this time he wiped all the Ukrainian units from the map and only added a few, then the next day he added every Ukrainian unit there is now which covers Kherson and the Southern front but is sparse on the Donbas and then has nothing near Khakhiv, then I waited a few days in the hopes that he would update the rest, but he did not so I guess this will do, maybe the Kherson and southern fronts have not even been done fully, who knows. I will update this if he updates it.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 15:29 [Preview] No.48549 del
Good morning, sirs!
What do you think the daily casualties are?
I remember the Ukraine reporting 200 killed per day about 3 months ago, then some NGO (Wings of Freedom or something like that?) glowie let it slip on Judge Napolitano's show that they are suffering 1000 casualties per day (can't recall if it was KIA only or +WIA, but it would make sense to have 200 KIA + 800 WIA = 1000 casualties).
That was before Zelensky pulled artillery from the Donbass front to Kherson and described the situation he created in the Donbass as "hell".


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 15:32 [Preview] No.48550 del
Writing on the map in Paint is annoying.

For the Ukrainians-
On July the 5th the 35th Marine Brigade was in the area, now the 18th Marine battalion is there instead. So I assume maybe this is part of the 35th Marine Brigade but then I don't know where the rest is.
123rd TDF Brigade is new to the theatre, I can't find where it came from on the map either.
59th Separate Motorized brigade is new to the theatre, it disappeared from the map in the last update, it was on the front close to Zaparozhia, now it has reappeared.
5th Separate Tank Brigade is new to the theatre, moved from Odesa.
17th Separate Tank Brigade is new to the theatre, moved from south west of Kramatorsk.

For Russia.
I'm not going to bother following them all, but they have a unit labelled U/I Wagner element now, that is the infantry one with no number.

So Ukrainian strength in the area has gone from 21 BTGs to 31 BTGs and Russia from 9-11 to 12.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 15:38 [Preview] No.48551 del
>>48549
Not sure, it's hard to say. I have no idea what the casualties of any side are to begin with. The Ukrainians just said that 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died so far, as you mention, even by what they themselves said before that is clearly wrong. Nothing they say is worth much, that goes for Russia as well(though maybe not to that degree). All the appeal videos, the desperate training regimes, reports from the ground and such indicate that they are suffering a lot of casualties though. But I really have no idea how to put a number on it.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 15:44 [Preview] No.48552 del
>>48549
Right now? Who knows.
Here's an article from before, daily 1000. >>47999 It's from June 15th
On June 1 Zelensky said 100.
I haven't seen new numbers, but I don't read that much news anyway.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 16:26 [Preview] No.48553 del
This front is interesting because there are more sub units. Ohh and just so you know, it's hard to tally up Russian figures hence the lack of a solid figure on the last one, this time I am just counting regiments as BTGS and I hope that makes up for the other issues with Russian numbers.

For the Ukrainians-
9th operational regiment is new to the theatre and map but I don't know what it's parent unit is and if it even has one, it just says subordinate to National Guard.
Right next to it is the 23rd Public Protection Brigade which also is listed as subordinate to National Guard and last update there was a unit in the area called 23rd National Guard, it's probably that. The 9th operational regiment may be a part of it, but not certain.
98th Azov Battalion is new and subordinate to the 108th TDF. Azov is National guard but I'm not going to put any more thought into that, I'll just have it as one of the 3 battalions the 108th would have. If it's extra to it then that is one more BTG equivalent though.
128th Separate Mountain Brigade disappeared last time but now is back roughly where it was.
1st Tank battalion is subordinate to the 1st Separate Tank Brigade that was located in that area last time but now it is gone(aside form that battalion).
The 37th Motorized Battalion is new to the theatre and kind of new, it is subordinate to the 56th separate Motorized Battalion that was in the Donbass last time but as I said, the Donbass has not been done properly this time so I don't know where it is.
The 108th TDF is new to the theatre and was moved from Dnipro.
68th Jager Brigade is new to the Theatre and the map, funny name for a Brigade as well.

110th TDF and 53rd Separate Motorised Brigade where in the area last time but are gone now.

Won't talk about the Russians.

So there are about 14 Ukrainian BTGs to 9 Russian BTGs and it used to be 12 and 7-8. So not a huge change this time.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 16:26 [Preview] No.48554 del
There are only two fronts this time so that is the end.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 16:44 [Preview] No.48555 del
>>48551
>>48552
Thanks, kings.

I recall hearing about literal CIA glowies conducting social media research and estimating under 5000 Russian deaths about a month ago.

Unless this is 4D chess to make Russians more willing to support a war that's secretly disastrous, I think that's a fair estimate, give or take 20%.

Don't know if they excluded Wagner and republic militias from the count or not. You'd expect them to include them to get a bigger, more demoralizing number. Wagner in particular doesn't make sense to exclude, as they are (mostly?) Russian citizens. Do the musicians' family members have to sign NDAs?


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 16:49 [Preview] No.48556 del
>>48553
>98th Azov Battalion is new and subordinate to the 108th TDF
What da? Aren't Azov supposed to be hardcore Aryan Nazi supersoldiers? Why would they be subordinate to volkssturm trench stuffers?

Are they barrier troops to prevent the TDF retreating?


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 16:54 [Preview] No.48557 del
>>48540
Since The Ghost of Tom Joad not much to hear about. Russians launch their Kinzhals from them. But as noted >>48545 they don't do much besides. While having the upper hand no decisive air superiority was achieved. Or what they did (I'm not sure what was reported about destroyed aircrafts), they can't exploit that due to Ukrainian AA (probably supported by NATO data somehow). I don't see any reports.

>>48547
>they did run out of things
Which also means lot of the stuff was ground down by the fights.
>I'm not sure what form it's taking though, whether this is more conscripts or not
We'll see. Perhaps.

>>48548
Little can be known about Ukrainian units. I see two reasons. One, to prevent open source intelligence gathering; two, so the public can be fed with whatever info they want to give them.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 16:55 [Preview] No.48558 del
>>48556
>Aren't Azov supposed to be hardcore Aryan Nazi supersoldiers?
No. That Azov doesn't exist anymore.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 17:24 [Preview] No.48559 del
>>48558
Do we know anything about the new Azov's capabilities? Are they fresh conscripts that looked like they might be useful for something other than waiting to die in a trench and given extra resources/training? Veterans of units that lost too many soldiers? Troops trained abroad?


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 17:37 [Preview] No.48560 del
>>48559
I had no interest following the Azov. There are some mentions ITT, you can find it (press Ctrl+F and type Azov in the field). From what I can recall from whatever articles I read they were expanded and watered down, not by conscripts but regulars and/or specialized units liek engineers or something, key people shuffled to other places and whatnot. Maybe even before the war.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 17:42 [Preview] No.48561 del
>>48553
>>48553
In Kherson the Ukrainian numerical advantage is much bigger, and on paper they have a lot of mechanized forces, while the Russians rely more on light infantry than they do in Zaporozhia. It looks good for the Ukrainians in Kherson, and yet they've achieved little.

>>48552
It's also worth checking the intensity of combat when this or that number of daily casualties is published.


Bernd 08/25/2022 (Thu) 17:47 [Preview] No.48562 del
>>48560
>There are some mentions ITT, you can find it (press Ctrl+F and type Azov in the field)
Tried it before posting, there's really no information about the makeup of the new Azov.

>I read they were expanded and watered down, not by conscripts but regulars and/or specialized units liek engineers or something, key people shuffled to other places and whatnot
Thanks!


Bernd 08/26/2022 (Fri) 02:19 [Preview] No.48564 del
>>48555
I think BBC did something like that too, both the CIA and MI6 claimed not long ago that 10,000 Russian soldiers had died. I don't know if that includes DPR and LPR.
It seems reasonable but again, I really don't know.

>>48556
They are just paramilitaries that were folded into the National Guard. I'm not sure what level of training they have, probably the same as the rest of the army at best, they are motivated though. Given that they are national guard not regular army it might make more sense for them to operate with TDF, both have similar levels of equipment and maybe even training(particularly now, that Azov battalion might have been newly made but I don't know).

>>48557
True, there is always an issue with that, the sources are listed in the unit details now though. It's all just an estimate.

>>48561
Yes. It seems they are not capable of an offensive. They are saying that it's a 'modern counter offensive now'.

>Ukraine’s military is "systematically and methodically" carrying out a counter-offensive in the south, the head of the joint coordination press-center of the Southern Defense Forces, Nataliya Gumenyuk, said on national TV on Aug. 22.

>“If everyone expected that they would see how troops rise up and march through the steppes of Kherson Oblast, too bad,” said Gumenyuk. “Because in the conditions of modern warfare, the counter-offensive looks different. Basically, it’s the depletion of the enemy’s forces.”

>According to her, Ukrainian tactics include the destruction of ammunition depots, command posts, and attacks on strongholds where enemy weapons and equipment are concentrated.

>“This significantly affects the morale of the invaders,” Gumenyuk added.

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-military-shares-details-of-counter-offensive-in-south-of-ukraine-50264820.html


Bernd 08/26/2022 (Fri) 06:55 [Preview] No.48565 del
It's over! Russians lost all the gained territories!

>>48550
How many marine brigades they have anyway? If just the one, then it is a good guess that the battalion is part of it. Maybe the rest is at Odessa. I would look for them near bodies of water, although they can be used elsewhere ofc. It's not liek walking on water is needed for their operation.
Kinda weird to see Wagner there. In case of the secessionists it makes more sense, since Moscow can still say that they don't use mercs.

>>48553
>Jager Brigade
Light infantry?
I think it's safe to say Ukrainians have a mix of units with various level of combat value.
I don't expect much changes on those two fronts. Which means I'm also skeptical about the Ukrainian efforts on the Kherson line just as yourself and Brbernd: >>48561 They put more weight there, but will it matter? Maybe it's just paperweight, and serve as distraction for Russians. Ukros should have bunch of soldiers but no good training or adequate weaponry, so they might set up bale soldiers.

>>48555
>disastrous
Indeed.

>>48561
>It's also worth checking the intensity of combat when this or that number of daily casualties is published.
From the liveuamap I can't judge. Just bunch of red dots with short notices, lists of settlements. I dunno.

>>48564
>>According to her, Ukrainian tactics include the destruction of ammunition depots, command posts, and attacks on strongholds where enemy weapons and equipment are concentrated.
So they shoot back with HIMARS.


Bernd 08/26/2022 (Fri) 08:21 [Preview] No.48568 del
>>48565
Well they had two Brigades of Marines at least, but the 36th was lost in Mariupol.
Wagner are not mercenaries.

This is what the Geneva convention says about mercenaries.

>Art 47. Mercenaries

>A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
>A mercenary is any person who:
>(a) is especially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
>(b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
>(c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
>(d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
>(e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
>(f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

>All the criteria (a–f) must be met, according to the Geneva Convention, for a combatant to be described as a mercenary.

They would meet a,b,e,f. c maybe but that would be hard to prove, it could be argued that there aren't combatants of similar functions in the Russian army. But they don't meet d.

This seems easy to manipulate though, e would be very easy to implement for any mercenary, all the army of a nation would have to do is say yep, they are in our army now.


Bernd 08/26/2022 (Fri) 09:53 [Preview] No.48569 del
Well that's not good.
Armenia now has no land connection to it.
I thought that there were meant to be Russia soldiers in the area, I would have assumed the Armenians would have fought harder for it as well.


Bernd 08/26/2022 (Fri) 11:50 [Preview] No.48570 del
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Addendum.


Bernd 08/28/2022 (Sun) 08:21 [Preview] No.48581 del
Some open source intel about the Russian troops.
Pics of "the recently formed third army corps". In Rostov-an-Don I think.


Bernd 08/29/2022 (Mon) 15:22 [Preview] No.48589 del
Interesting I thought it was no longer happening.


Bernd 08/29/2022 (Mon) 16:15 [Preview] No.48594 del
>>48589
This ought to be interesting.
They have the weight so they try it. How it will effect the rest of the front?


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 03:37 [Preview] No.48598 del
OKay, the UAwardata map was updated again and properly this time.

There are 4-8 Russian BTGs and 18 Ukrainian Battalions.

Ukraine-

The 3rd Operational Brigade is new to theatre, I don't know where from it may be new to the map, it's part of the national guard.
The 30th Separate Mechanised Brigaded has been moved here, it was located south of Bahkmut in July. The 72nd Separate Mechanised Brigade was in the Khakiv area in July but has been moved to the location that the 30th came from. It looks like they rotated them.

Russia-

The Russian units are the same as they were in July aside form two BTGs that were a both northwards that may have been passing through the area rather than positioned there.

However, they now have a note saying 'based on personal assessment based on older information' and also before it has N/A under Apporx Strength in BTG, now it is listed as 2.
I don't know how accurate that is or what he bases it on, I thought that the Russian army was organised in a way that each Brigade had only one active contract BTG and the rest were conscripts, so then every brigade could only have one BTG active in Ukraine, but I can't find more information on if this is true or not, maybe it's not. Anyway, so I am just listing it as 4-8 now.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 03:54 [Preview] No.48599 del
14 Russian BTGs to 12 Ukrainian Battalions.

Ukraine-

In July the 25th Airbourne Brigade was in the area, now it has been moved near Avdivka.
The 4th Separate Tank Brigade is new to this area, it was in Bahkmut.

Russia-

This time he has only listed the parent units and has the strength in BTGS listed there... It's incredibly annoying trying to work out Russian strength.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 05:29 [Preview] No.48601 del
In the Donbass the Russians have 16-24 BTGs plus wagner and the Ukrainians have 50 Battalions plus the 15th National Guard regiment and elements of the Foreighn Legion.

Ukraine-
81st Air Assault Brigade is new to the theatre and the map.
Azov Battalion is new to the Theatre and the Map, though I think it was always in the area just not mapped.
115th Separate Mechanised Brigade is new to the Theatre and maybe the map, there was a 115th TDF that comes from west of Kiev.
Foreign Legion is new to the theatre and map, but I know there were elements of them in the area for a while, I think he is just starting to map groups like that now.
15th National Guard Regiment is new to the Theatre and the map.
108th and 109th Mountain Battalions are new to the Theatre and the map, their parent Brigade is the 10th which was in Konotop in July.
14th Separate Mechanised Brigade is new to the Theatre, it was moved from thee Kherson Theatre.
102nd TDF is new to the Theatre, it was based north of Romania.
1st Tank Brigade is new to the Theatre, it was in the south between Zaprozhia and the Donbas, one of it's Battalions is still where it was though.
72nd Separate Mechanised Brigade is new to the Theatre, it was near Khakiv.

Now for what was there in July but is not there now
57th Separate Motorised Brigade has disappeared form the map.
128th Separate Mountain Brigade has been moved to the south between Zaprozhia and the Donbass.
24th Separate Mechanised Brigade has disappeared from the map.
4th National Guard Brigade has disappeared form the map(perhaps the newly appeared 15th National Guard Regiment was part of that).
The 17th Separate Tank Brigade has been moved to the Kherson theatre south of Kryvyi Rih.
4th Separate Tank Brigade has been moved west of Izium.
30th Separate Mechanized Brigade has been moved to Khakiv.

Russia-
Again, he has changed how he estimates strength. For example, in July he listed the 74th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade as having an Approx BTG strength of 1, now he lists the same units as having an Approx BTG strength of 2.

Anyway, so the lower estimate of 16 BTGs is what it would be if every Brigade had a BTG strength of 1, the higher estimate of 24 BTGs is what the strength would be going by the values he uses. Minus a few that is, because he lists the HQ units and says what strength they have and what brigades make up that strength but most of these brigades are also mapped next to the HQ units so where I have found the sub units nearby I have removed them from the HQ unit strength.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 05:56 [Preview] No.48602 del
7-8 Russian BTGs to 15 Ukrainian Battalions.

Ukraine-

110th TDF is new to Theatre but only comes from the Zaprozhia theatre.
25th Airborne Brigade is new to the theatre and comes from west of Izium.
503rd Marine Brigade is new to the Theatre and the map but is part of the 36th Marine Battalion, the Battalion that was destroyed in Mariupol, so not all of it must have been.
The 21st Motorised Rifle Battalion is part of the 56th Separate Motorised Brigade, so it's not new. The 37th Motorised Battalion is part of the 56th Brigade but not in that area, it's more towards Zaprozhia, you can just see it on this map.
66th Mechanised Brigade is new to the Theatre and the map.

Nothing much to say about Russia that I have not mentioned just before.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 06:13 [Preview] No.48603 del
There was a minor change here but I will mostly copy what I wrote before and add the new estimates he uses.

11-17 Russian BTGs to 17 Ukrainian Battalions.


Ukraine-
9th operational regiment is new to the theatre and map but I don't know what it's parent unit is and if it even has one, it just says subordinate to National Guard.
Right next to it is the 23rd Public Protection Brigade which also is listed as subordinate to National Guard and last update there was a unit in the area called 23rd National Guard, it's probably that. The 9th operational regiment may be a part of it, but not certain.
98th Azov Battalion is new and subordinate to the 108th TDF. Azov is National guard but I'm not going to put any more thought into that, I'll just have it as one of the 3 battalions the 108th would have. If it's extra to it then that is one more BTG equivalent though.
128th Separate Mountain Brigade disappeared last time but now is back roughly where it was.
1st Tank battalion is subordinate to the 1st Separate Tank Brigade that was located in that area in July but is now west of Bahkmut.
The 37th Motorized Battalion is new to the theatre and kind of new, it is subordinate to the 56th separate Motorized Battalion that is located west of Avdivka.
The 108th TDF is new to the theatre and was moved from Dnipro.
68th Jager Brigade is new to the Theatre and the map, funny name for a Brigade as well.

110th TDF was in the area inJuly but is now west of New York.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 06:44 [Preview] No.48604 del
And Lastly.

14-15 Russian BTGs to 31 Ukrainian Battalions.

Ukraine-
On July the 5th the 35th Marine Brigade was in the area, now the 18th Marine battalion is there instead. This is part of the 35th Marine Brigade but I don't know where the rest is.
123rd TDF Brigade is new to the theatre, I can't find where it came from on the map either.
59th Separate Motorized brigade is new to the theatre, it disappeared from the map in the last update, it was on the front close to Zaparozhia, now it has reappeared.
5th Separate Tank Brigade is new to the theatre, moved from Odesa.
17th Separate Tank Brigade is new to the theatre, moved from south west of Kramatorsk.

Russia-

Last update he put Wagner there, now he removed it. I don't know what that is meant to mean.
There are a few HQ units in the area that total 5 BTGs but they have notes saying that one is likely reconstituting in Russia and the other is not likely in the area but some units may have arrived(so I guess this is a formation on its way there). So add 5 if you feel like it.
A few of the units that I have added into the numbers have notes saying he thinks they might have been rotated out as well, but I added them anyway. I guess it probably evens out.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 07:31 [Preview] No.48606 del
Yesterday was a flag at Sukhy Stavok, a one road village, that it was liberated the Ukraine. Now no flag. And couldn't find it in the timeline. Someone's playing games. Too bad I did not made a screenshot of that.


Bernd 08/30/2022 (Tue) 12:51 [Preview] No.48607 del
>>48606
I think that village actually did get taken but every other attack was pushed back, nothing was mentioned in the Ukrainian daily briefing either, nothing that is on LiveUA maps anyway.


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 07:42 [Preview] No.48611 del
>>48607
To be honest the liveuamap looks like as if the Russians were attacking.


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 09:35 [Preview] No.48612 del
>>48611
Today Liveuamap updated everywhere but the Kherson theatre, so presumable it was not mentioned by the Ukrainian staff(which I think he gets most his information from). Often people are quiet during offensives.

I'm not fully sure what is happening. Rybar is a good source, they are on Telegram but people post them on Youtube as well(I'll post a link to today's report that I found, they are fairly short).

According to them the Ukrainians took two more villages, Lyubomyrivka and Ternovi Pody.

The other source that I follow on Telegram is Intel Slava because it's in English and he posts footage of the war(Rybar is Russian but posts the reports in English as well but most of what he posts he does not).
He says that they were pushed out of Sukhy Stavok, he is not wrong all the time but he is less credible than Rybar, so maybe it's true, maybe not.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=-IUNSREkuLk [Embed]


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 15:33 [Preview] No.48617 del
(36.09 MB 1280x720 IMG_6498.MP4)
The Taliban held a military parade, this is surreal.


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 15:39 [Preview] No.48618 del
>>48617
>first two column
The most ridiculous march ever.


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 18:16 [Preview] No.48619 del
(181.85 KB 1280x890 deep penetration.jpg)
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Ukraine did a little trolling at Kherson and were able to penetrate about 10 km behind the front line, then turned left and went about a further 2-3 km. Did the Russian line collapse or are they allowing Ukraine to cauldron itself? Is there any strategic value to this breakthrough?

Attached an image for scale, so you can calculate the distances for yourselves.

The fog of war is thick and Ukraine has declared civilian discussion of military activities to be zrada, so take this with a grain of salt.

>>48617
>>48618
Y'all sleeping on the dude with a comically red beard at 0:43.


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 20:22 [Preview] No.48620 del
>>48619
>Is there any strategic value to this breakthrough?
My guess is they're trying to encircle some froce and cut their retreat route.

>Y'all sleeping on the dude with a comically red beard at 0:43.
Yeah I noticed it too lmao. I vaguely remember something about muslims thinking higher of red hair, idk what exactly was it, maybe some believe Muhammad had it. Anyway some of them will dye their hair.


Bernd 08/31/2022 (Wed) 20:52 [Preview] No.48621 del
(305.25 KB 1889x845 field.jpg)
>>48619
Well they want to surround that most important rectangle.
But this: >>48620
>to encircle some froce and cut their retreat route.
No strategic but tactical importance. Maybe a section of troops there or something. Not sure why would they be there it's not like both sides laying on their stomach along the precise line of the front.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 04:13 [Preview] No.48622 del
(2.88 MB 2123x1227 Untitled 14.png)
>>48619
I don't think the Russians had much in the area to begin with(>>48604) but I doubt they would have tried too hard to hold those villages. As you can see, even calling them villages is probably generous.

Those villages mean nothing and the Russians are outnumbered, it's like WW2 but the Russians are actually the Germans this time. It makes much more sense for them to have an elastic and mobile defence, they will let those villages be taken, hammer the Ukrainians as they do it and then counter attack with mobile forces.

Bruskynske is bigger and on the raod to Davydiv Brid. That will be Ukraine's objective. As it is they are crossing on a pontoon bridge and they have only captured a few hamlets which are barely even connected by road. Securing Davydiv Brid would give them a bridge over the Ingulets and it would give them a staging area for further advances, though Brukynske might be able to be used for further operations as well if it's big enough, but they still need that bridge and road.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 08:23 [Preview] No.48623 del
>>48622
Do we know anything about civilians in the area? If the Russians were smart they would have evacuated all the civvies from the area to deny the Ukranians the ability to use human shields.

As far as I know, the villages under Kherson have not been fortified, so if they lack human shields, what's stopping the Russians from deleting the villages with no survivors using artillery, MLRS, TOS-1, etc?

I remember reading that Russia has received just under 3 million refugees from Ukraine, about 50% of which came from the people's republics.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 08:38 [Preview] No.48624 del
>>48623
I kinda recall a news about Russians evacuating that region previously. Was week ago or more perhaps.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 09:15 [Preview] No.48625 del
>>48623
They are small villages that have been on the front for a while now, I would assume that it would not be hard to move the population and it would have been done a while ago.

I don't think there is anything stopping them doing that, which is why it's important for the Ukrainians to take something bigger in the near future.
The same applies to the Russians as well, they would be easy prey there, but also the Russians may have decided not to entrench themselves there too thoroughly so as not to give the Ukrainians any cover when they get there.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 15:02 [Preview] No.48627 del
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An interesting Special forces action happened today.
100-200 Ukrainian special forces in 2 barges(one may have been destroyed by Russian aviation before it arrived) landed near the Zaprozhyzhia NPP and tried to take it. I don;t know how far they got but Russia helicopters arrived quite quickly and seems they were pinned down by Russian ground forces quite fats as well, then tanks arrived on the scene at some point. So it failed.

I think what they may have been trying to do was to seize the NPP in a sudden coup before the IAEA got there, the Russians would then be unable to take it back without heavy fighting and the IAEA would not allow that, they would also demand access to the NPP regardless of who owned it and once they had access that would completely ruin any chance of Russia taking it back and the power supply to Ukraine from the NPP would be secure, the end. Well they were unfortunate this time, their operators did not operate operationally enough.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 18:30 [Preview] No.48628 del
>>48598
>>48599
>>48601
>>48602
>>48603
>>48604
So mostly it's hard to tell the real strength. And even beyond that it's impossible to tell the real real strength.
Looking at the Kherson front, on both ends infantry (territorial and national guard) and in between mechanized, tank, motorized, and marine units. It does seem the purpose is attacking.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 19:47 [Preview] No.48629 del
>>48619
>Is there any strategic value to this breakthrough?

It makes tension that may prevent Russia from doing referendum in Kherson at September 11 (national election day) as was (possibly) planned before.

>>48628
>barges

That story looks strange. These barges aren't self-driven, and path to other side is near 6km at least.

There are plenty of ways to send forces by the river, but using slow barges that need to be moved by some separate ship is the worst one. Even using that ship without barge is better.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 19:56 [Preview] No.48630 del
>>48629
>It makes tension that may prevent Russia from doing referendum in Kherson at September 11 (national election day)
Are you telling me 11/9 wasn't chosen as the date of the referendum to commemorate WTC? I guess unintentionally doing a bit of epic trolling still counts. Fingers crossed it goes off without a hitch.


Bernd 09/01/2022 (Thu) 20:33 [Preview] No.48631 del
>>48630
>Are you telling me 11/9 wasn't chosen as the date of the referendum to commemorate WTC?

No, it is coincidence. National voting day is second Sunday of September, established in 2012. It was October in past.

Here is some short historical info: https://tass.ru/info/12419079 (in Russian though)

Using this day for referendum is already a bit of trolling because it is voting date for purely Russian territories.