>>129930
As the world order changes, I think there are two prominent investment outcomes we can bet on:

Outcome #1: The US Dollar Will Lose Its Privileged Position

The decline of America’s geopolitical influence is another enormous headwind for the US dollar.

Suppose the world thinks the US military is the ultimate backstop of the US dollar. What does it mean for the US dollar’s credibility when a ragtag group of insurgents from one of the poorest countries can defeat the military which backs it?

If the mighty US military couldn’t secure its partners in Afghanistan, how can it protect its other allies?

Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Western European countries, and the Gulf Arab states are likely pondering this.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see them make security arrangements with US adversaries—such as China, Russia, and Iran—that exclude the Americans.

In fact, this has already happened with Saudi Arabia, a crucial player in the US-led world order. Saudi Arabia is the linchpin of the petrodollar system, which has underpinned the US dollar since Nixon removed its last links to gold in 1971.