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Syria Thread - Iranian Backed Edition Bernd 02/22/2024 (Thu) 21:33 [Preview] No. 51681
Previous: >>50296

Nothing much going on in Syria anymore. Bit of ISIS I see on the map, and the SAA bombarding rebels on the north east. Beside that Israel is constantly attacking into Syria, targeting Iranian backed terrorists, and Iranian backed militias, and apparently Iranian militias themselves.
In Israel, the IDF still wrestling with some Iranian backed, dirty, barefeet, stone throwing kids since October... Where Yom Kippur and Six-Day Wars disappeared? Anyway. In Gaza they bombing Iranian backed Hamas, in Lebanon the Iranian backed Hezbollah. Sometimes they have a cease fire to release hostages as the Iranian backed Qatar negotiates it.
From Yemen, the Iranian backed Houthis raiding the shipping lanes with drones and whatnot.
In Ukraine the Iranian backed RAF/RuAf is on the attack. The initiative is theirs, AFU tries holding their trenches, forts, and foxholes. I heard couple of interesting things today, but would need some drawing and look up possible sources.


Bernd 02/22/2024 (Thu) 22:33 [Preview] No.51682 del
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So DPA dedicated a video for the Russian "Group of Forces", where they are situated on the front line. I drew a map for Bernd to illustrate the point.
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=emgaW0gNwQw
https://youtube.com/watch?v=emgaW0gNwQw [Embed]

He gets this from the daily reports of the Russian Ministry of Defence (eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news.htm - why they need "eng" and /en/ there, it's a mystery). Made two screenshots, so Bernd don't have to go there.
But I think DPA gets something wrong. I think the Yug is also responsible the frontline south of Avdiivka (Avdeyevka now?) since they were the ones "liberating" Pobeda in today's report, which lays between Marinka and Novomikhailovka/ilivka I guess Újmihályi in Hungarian... as it should be.
I'm not sure where the exact borders are between each grouping so just guesstimated em.


Bernd 02/23/2024 (Fri) 22:16 [Preview] No.51683 del
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This >>51682 ofc means little without knowing the strenght, the actual forces behind them.
I mean sure the Tsentr has a way narrower line than the rest, but how concentrated the forces are? They said they directed like 50K troops there, but how many units were then subordinated to Yug after the town fell?
I went through the deepstate and militaryland maps and made a list of Russian units they placed onto the map. The picture is not much clearer.
Wikipee has an order of battle, but it's quite dated and this division of forces is a new thing, it was shaped the past week basically.
Couple of fun finds:
>The 80th separate intelligence battalion "Sparta" named Fried Cock
The storm zed units are all named 'shoigists "storm-z"', and then one of them is "strom-v". Whoa.
And ofc it's quite chaotic, because in case of regiment and battalion level units can't know where they belong to, perhaps the map shows a brigade, and then some battalions belong to that, but they didn't bothered (or they don't know) to mention it's part of that brigade.
There are cases when it can be guessed that some units belong together. For example on the militaryland map (picrel) around that HQ at Rostov (8th Combined Arms Army HQ):
- 163th Armored Regiment
- 102nd Motorized Regiment
- 103rd Motorized Regiment
- 381st Artillery Regiment
These are typical components of an old school Soviet armored division - at least they organized the same based on Soviet model on the Hungary in the 50's. Later ofc there were other variations, like with 3 infantry, 2 armored, and 2 artillery regiments.
Btw average German WWII armored division looks very much the same too.
So I assume there is a division HQ somewhere that hold together these.


Bernd 02/24/2024 (Sat) 19:11 [Preview] No.51687 del
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The European Council of Foreign relations published an article couple of days ago, centered around a survey among 12 EU countries' citizens.
https://ecfr.eu/publication/wars-and-elections-how-european-leaders-can-maintain-public-support-for-ukraine/
>Source: Survey conducted by YouGov and Datapraxis in January 2024
>January
This matters much I think. Will be back to this.

Made 8 screenshots to fit into two posts, but there are 2-3 more questions.
#1 - Ofc Polan, Sweden, and Portugal are the highest to believe Ukraine can win. For Polan it's wishful thinking, because they hate Russia, and fear (for a reason) closeness. Swedes live in an alternative universe, and Portugal is so far they could be on another continent. Grease and Italy is a surprise for me. Especially Greece.
I have a problem with this tho. The definition of "win" for both Ukraine and Russia is undefined and it's hard to grasp. What would it mean?
#2 - This is more clear: should we push Ukraine to fight more, or push her to sit down and negotiate (potentially cut losses)? Kinda weird that while most people see there is no winning here, they want Ukraine to fight more. On the other hand, fighting more means preserving negotiating positions - for now, not for long as Ukraine will lose territory. I bet if they did the polling now, after Avdiivka fell, and maybe in March when the Ukrainan gains of last summer will be rolled back people would see it differently.
#3 - The farther away the less of the threat... I understand Poland. They want Ukraine win more so they can put Ukrainians back where they belong: to Ukraine. Sweden living in an alternative Universe again where Ukrainians are highly skilled, morally spotless, diligent, educated geniuses. Are they this optimists, humanists, or just horribly naive?
#4 - I don't get fellow Hungarians who would be pleased. Literally nothing changes for everyday life except more news how USA loves Orbán govt. And I also don't get the disappointment in any country, partially because USA aren't their country, so who cares who is the president have to deal with it and that's it. And partially because Trump wasn't even a horrible Prez.


Bernd 02/24/2024 (Sat) 19:39 [Preview] No.51688 del
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#5 - Now this is the thing that noone can know. What would Trump do? What would be the effect?
#6 - Again, this was done in January. Much, much water will flow down the Danube till the EU election in June. Even now things are different. If people see that Ukraine can't hold, they'll think why increase support, why keep it up, why not tell 'em to negotiate?
#7 - I included this because it's hilarious. 65% says the political system is broken in their own countries. My top 3 suspects: Hungary, Greece, Polan and Italy on the 4th. Polan because they just changed government and things are shaky. There are other countries with pessimist realist people, basically all Easter EU ones and I'm guessing Spain.
#8 - Now here Hungary isn't the least pessimist, but most have a strong opinion, only 26% says don't know or don't care. Greece has abysmal opinion of EU, kek. I'm surprised France "scored low" but mostly because of the neutral people, they aren't sure. Does this indicated skepticism towards EU? This question could measure if people find EU competent enough, an they don't seem so. At least when it comes the this war. Perhaps in other topics they'd say EU is doing all right job.

My take is that "pro-war" Western leftlibs have to put great effort to keep people learning the coming bad news from the front. They'll try to do it, and they'll keep up generating fear from Russia, they'll keep inflating the danger Russia poses, while keep downplaying the strength of Russia in the war. Which is a curious contrast, but they are doing that. All pro-Ukrainians online (serious supporters and bloody mouth "fanboys" as well) doing this, and soldiers on the fronts too (I might write something about this later).
Ukrainians also build this "we failed, because we got deserted, betrayed" mindset, which was so characteristic to WWI veterans (and ofc the Hungarian mindset in relation to '56). "We could have fought on, but the supporting structure said no more."
I don't think the future will be comfortable, but at least will be interesting.


Bernd 02/24/2024 (Sat) 22:06 [Preview] No.51689 del
I really enjoyed this "Super Panel":
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=8nhaYF3a86E
https://youtube.com/watch?v=8nhaYF3a86E [Embed]

Was given some food for thought, while was fun and entertaining. Almost make me wanna register and comment on youtube. Well, almost, not by a mile, but as close as I can get to that point.
Here I would just mention one thing, at about 1:19:20 they start to talk about an offensive against Belgorod, and then it gets rightly mentioned that the weapons come with a leash, that they can't use them in Russia, can't fire into Russia what the West considers Russia anyway, Russia considers all that they hold in Ukraine as Russia, especially Crimea, and Ukraine shoots into Crimea all the time....
It's like Vietnam. US army wasn't allowed to march into the North, and bring the war to them. One can't fight a war and win like this. It's a setup for failure.


Bernd 02/25/2024 (Sun) 01:07 [Preview] No.51690 del
>>51689
I don't think that's much of an issue. I think invading Belgorod would cause far more harm than good to Ukraine, it would give Russia the pretext to use Conscripts in the war and it would be the conscripts defending Belgorod so it might not actually effect Russian forces in the Donbass all that much.
I think what they are doing now with their small raids is the best course of action as it's enough that Russia has to place units there to stop it but not enough that Russia can justify an escalation.


Bernd 02/25/2024 (Sun) 09:11 [Preview] No.51691 del
>>51690
They cover this topic more than I wrote.
But if you think about it: AFU is destined to fail. If not the attrition grinding them down, time will, because US - even if Biden stays - will lose interest at one point. It will fail how South Vietnam failed. I could draw parallel with Korea, but Korea failed too, tho not as bad as Vietnam they had to retreat back, no unified Korea, and no peace ever since then, but the fat little rocketman.
With Belgorod they would gain would have gained - they have no strength for anything now, and won't be ever again, last summer was the peak a bargaining chip and a massive woodland to hold up Russians. The conscript part of the army reacts slow, and they are even less motivated than the current ones fighting in Ukraine.
Belgorod is would have been not a good move, but the rest is was, like their "counteroffensive" worse.


Bernd 02/25/2024 (Sun) 11:22 [Preview] No.51692 del
>>51691
If the Ukraine manages to prolong the war long enough there is a chance that Russia will agree to relatively favourable terms for Ukraine, Ukraine will lose Donbass but will keep the rest and may be able to join NATO and the EU. The counter offensive would have contributed towards that end and might have given even more favourable terms, it would not have ended the war, Russia would take everything back they lost even if that took years but it contributes to the effort that Russia has to expend.
I believe that if the effort needed becomes too great, Russia will eventually settle for peace once it deems it has achieved enough to sell as a victory and to achieve at least some of it's goals(such as taking the Donbass).

But taking Belgorod would never have given Ukraine a bargaining chip, Russia could never sell any peace brought from that as a victory no matter how hard it tried. Not only that but Ukraine taking Russia land(actual Russian land) would have a huge effect on the population of Russia, after all, as it is the war is still an external one.

It would have huge geopolitical ramifications for Russia as well as internal ones and Russia may feel that the only way to save face would be to take Kiev and achieve total vicotory.


Bernd 02/25/2024 (Sun) 11:57 [Preview] No.51693 del
>>51692
>prolong the war
I don't see how that is detrimental for Russia.
>But taking Belgorod would never have given Ukraine a bargaining chip...
I do agree taking Belgorod, or attacking that wouldn't have been a good move. I do think it would have been the least bad. But Belgorod is a sidetrack tho, and their (well, Wyatt's) idea in the first place.
My point is, can't beat an opponent if the war cannot be taken to him, and beat him on his land. With attrition the invasion can be stopped, but nothing will stop the opponent invading again at a later point. And attrition doesn't work if it attrites me more - and this is the case with Ukraine. They're losing material and personnel (especially experienced personnel) more quickly than they could replenish it. And now they lose land. And every loss they lose morale, they lose will to fight.


Bernd 02/25/2024 (Sun) 12:06 [Preview] No.51694 del
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Also turns out we have a winner here: >>51559 HistoryLegends is indeed Canuck.
Turkbernd deserves an Krautchan Iron Account, and a medal.


Bernd 02/26/2024 (Mon) 19:45 [Preview] No.51696 del
First destroyed Abrams, at and by the Tsentr.
It seems they sent an Abrams in previously yesterday or the day before. It rolled in fired shots until depleted ammo, then rolled out. Perhaps they did the same today, but got caught.
Was surprising that no infantry, or visible air cover supported it.
It kinda reminds me of the situation of the Hungarian army at Iasi in WWII, when they got one (1) Tiger and with that they stopped a Soviet tank regiment allowing withdrawal of troops. In the end however they themselves had to abandon after blowing it up, for they run out of ammo and fuel.


Bernd 02/27/2024 (Tue) 18:42 [Preview] No.51698 del
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French dude, Clément Molin works on mapping tranches, both Russian and Ukrainian, for 2 years now.
The Finnish map: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The%20War%20in%20Ukraine/091194 still only shows the Russians.
Here's Clement's posts on twitter:
https://twitter.com/clement_molin/status/1745033008938102852
I only found an onion link for nitter instance that worked. The rest I found dead.
http://nitter.esmail5pdn24shtvieloeedh7ehz3nrwcdivnfhfcedl7gf4kwddhkqd.onion/clement_molin/status/1745033008938102852
He also has a google map, he updates:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HGTwN8Nx6vsl3n8UnsmZnFhonE_ziAU
I wish he used something else than google.
Clément, thank you for your work.

One thing have to note. Mostly he can map only those trenches which can be seen from satellite imagery. So those in forests and towns and underground tunnels he can miss. He ofc notes, his map isn't exhaustive. I think themap is extremely blind in cases such as Bakhmut and Avdiivka. I heard several times now in relation to Avdiivka, that there were no defenses. I assume this why it could hold out for so long, right...?
From the images and his explanation these fortifications very much based on the same idea that was the foundation of the Árpád-line ( C3%81rp%C3%A1d_Line">https://en.wikipedia.org/wikiC3%81rp%C3%A1d_Line ). The defensive line consists of independent strongpoints, where circular defense is possible (towards every direction), and can offer fire support for each other.


I'll dump some of his stuff from twitter.


Bernd 02/27/2024 (Tue) 18:48 [Preview] No.51699 del
Here's the map, only shows the blue "circles", no highlights, plus couple of examples.


Bernd 02/27/2024 (Tue) 18:50 [Preview] No.51700 del
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Here are the original Ukrainian lines just before the invasion. From Mariupok, to the Donets river.


Bernd 02/27/2024 (Tue) 19:09 [Preview] No.51701 del
Now the individual parts of the defense lines.
In the north-east Bakhmut-Siversk.
Behind those from Chasiv Yar to the Donets and bending towards the east, to Siversk. This one is interesting for the southern end, just south of Chasiv Yar was broken through during the battle of Bakhmut. Ofc they must be working on repairs and more forts, trenches, foxholes.
The Slovianks, Kramatorsk, and Konstantinivka rounds, behind CY-S, and B-S lines.
Avdiivka. Now there are couple of fortified positions, the first continuous chain of strongpoints are further back in the west, by about 17 kms.


Bernd 02/27/2024 (Tue) 19:17 [Preview] No.51702 del
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The juicy target: Pokrovsk. Hugged around just as Tokmak. And has similar role, it's an important node of supply.
Then the rest. Mikolaev, Zaporozhia, and east of Kharkov.

That's about it.


Bernd 02/27/2024 (Tue) 19:20 [Preview] No.51704 del
>>51703
Yeah. Oh well. Just search Árpád Line / Árpád-vonal.


Bernd 02/28/2024 (Wed) 08:07 [Preview] No.51708 del
Topic related I guess, self-immolation airman guy. >>>/news/22165 has a thread about him.
In short a serviceman of the USAF decided to set himself on fire in front of the Israeli Embassy in Washington DC, as a protest against Israeli actions. I'm not sure if only in this ongoing conflict, or in general the treatment of Palestinians. He died in the hospital.
He seems to be a regular IT guy with family. I don't get why he would do such a thing. I'm also curious who gets moved and motivated by him - like in the sense who is the target audience.


Bernd 02/29/2024 (Thu) 10:21 [Preview] No.51709 del
I think the litmus test on how the Russian campaign is going and how the Ukrainians are actually holding up will be the battle at Krasnahorivka, SE from Avdiivka, west from the city of Donetsk.
The front here stands still for long, basically form 2014 it seems, and the place is fortified strong. It's larger than all these villages the fights are going over. The line is solid, the routing, withdrawing brigades are relatively far to the north, so no immediate danger for the flanks to be exposed.
Now the Russian army moved onto the town, brought the fights into the southernmost streets. There was at least in incursion, which the Ukrainians beaten back.
How long will it take for the Russians to take the place - if they will be able at all. If they roll through in 2 weeks... that would be impressive.

At the situation at Robotyne. It sounds like another "meatgrinder" where units can be thrown into by both sides, and probably both sides thinks that they trap the other there. Like at Bakhmut. I don't really expect much territorial gains for now there, but I think the situation favors Russia. Every unit stuffed into that cauldron by Ukraine, one less unit to worry about elsewhere.


Bernd 02/29/2024 (Thu) 20:22 [Preview] No.51711 del
So the brand new circus is going on for a few days now. Macron said:
>there is no consensus to officially back any ground troops. That said, nothing should be excluded. We will do everything that we can to make sure that Russia does not prevail.
Which reminds me of an idea not mine which I mention occasionally in these threads, that at one point NATO will move into Ukraine and create a security zone.
Now this statement of his, rather suggest to move in to fight Russians along Ukraine instead of creating a barrier, but occupying creating a security zone as much land would be denying Russia to:
1. annex whole Ukraine;
2. create a "neutral" Ukraine (like Belarus);
3. create disarmed Ukraine.
Since they could preserve a piece of Ukraine that wouldn't be part of Russia, wouldn't be subordinated to Russia but to NATO/EU, and NATO/EU could deploy any number and type of weapon systems. It wouldn't be a victory for Ukraine, but Russia wouldn't prevail.
And the other thing his statement and the following denial of fellow Euro politicians remind me:
>send weapons to ukraine
<noooo we wont send weapons
>send them anyway
>send artillery to ukraine
<ooooo we wont send artillery
>send them anyway
>send tanks to ukraine
<noooo we wont send tanks
>send them anyway
>send long range rockets to ukraine
<noooo we wont send rockets
>send them anyway
>send fighter jets to ukraine
<noooo we wont send fighter jets
>send them anyway
>send troops to ukraine
<noooo we wont send troops
...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/27/french-president-emmanuel-macron-ukraine-french-ground-troops


Bernd 03/01/2024 (Fri) 21:46 [Preview] No.51722 del
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Edited part of the map of this dude: >>51698 so the strongholds can be seen better. Clément drew the fortifications in blue, and used blue to shade Ukraine held territory. So it's a bit hard to see.
It's the Avdiivka front (Tsentr Group) towards Pokrovsk. There is one chain of trenches from Stara Mykolaivka in the north through Ocheretyne and Komyshivka to Vovchenka in the south where the line can settle. They might just push in the center to about Novoselivka Persha which Russians could take. And they gonna have a bulge there.
I think a lot will depend on Krasnohorivka.


Bernd 03/03/2024 (Sun) 09:28 [Preview] No.51723 del
Youtube drama.
HistoryLegends published a video which refutes that human wave tactics is used by Russians (by anyone, both sides really). And he is right "human wave" as history or military history knows it... it does not used. And he points out when it was used, it was for propagandistic purposes in order to denigrate an opponent.
Two pro-Ukrainian channels replied, both trying to counter the arguments. One is Ryan McBeth who moved the goalpost to "meat wave", the other is Military & History who swapped both words: human -> meat and wave -> attack. And basically both says that it's used in propaganda fashion... The latter also says that noone say "human wave" ever.
Weeb Union, and and Defense Politics Asia did videos on this too, the latter reacted to the reactions. Matters little.
Yesterday I actually searched on an invidious instance, so on youtube (I wonder how results would change if I searched on pure youtube) "russian human waves" and got quite a few hits. This morning I thought I make couple of screenshots. With red I highlighted the hits with the searched expression, and with orange the related.
#1 "russian human waves" - probably Times Radio has the greatest reach in these popularizing the idea; I skipped that video game thing there; most hits are from over a year ago; related terms: meat wave and zombies, or just simply waves
#2 and #3 "human wave ukraine" - way more hits; ofc about the Russians; funny thing: most videos are done by "CNN-News18" which is an Indian news channel, imagine; one notable hit that overshadows Times Radio: Sky News with 1.7 million views: Analysis: Russia using 'human wave' troops in Donbas; and a curious find on the second page by Telegraph - with only 67K views, not many Bri'ish conservatives, eh?
#4 "russian meat wave" - quite a lot, to be honest most videos are done by Denys Davydov is he on the pajeet CNN_News18 level??? and he has lots of views ofc, related terms are human wave, zombies, meatgrinder

The Sky News find compelled me to search couple of large media channels: CNN, Reuters, BBC, Guardian News, couldn't come up with anything.


Bernd 03/03/2024 (Sun) 11:03 [Preview] No.51725 del
>>51723
It's a stupid term to begin with and one used by people that don't seem to know a whole lot about military tactics or organization.


Bernd 03/06/2024 (Wed) 20:19 [Preview] No.51731 del
I like how Matt of WillyOAM pronounces Sergey as Sir Jay. I think excellent channel as far as these war coverage videos go. No sarcasm.


Bernd 03/06/2024 (Wed) 21:02 [Preview] No.51732 del
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Russia/Soviet Union never attacked "Europe", but "Europe" attacked Russia/Soviet Union twice already.


Bernd 03/07/2024 (Thu) 01:00 [Preview] No.51733 del
>>51732
The USSR invaded Finland and also attacked Europe in 1920(the Polish-Soviet war), they invaded Poland again in 1939 but that was a bit different.
The Russian empire historically has invaded Europe on numerous occasions as well.


Bernd 03/07/2024 (Thu) 09:04 [Preview] No.51734 del
>>51733
Yes, they invaded Finland, the Baltics, Poland, and Romania. They never attacked "Europe" as a whole.
While Napoleon "unified" Europe and attacked Russia. It was Europe's attack.
And Hitler "unified" Europe and attacked the SU. It was Europe's attack.
Now Macron and the like are talking about how Russia wants to attack Europe, so they have to attack Russia.
In fact this time they (we) have a duo of Franco-Germany which "unifies" Europe and wants to attack Russia.


Bernd 03/07/2024 (Thu) 09:13 [Preview] No.51735 del
Probably even the Intervention counts as "Europe" attacking Russia.
And in the Polish-Soviet war was initiated by the Poles in the first place.


Bernd 03/11/2024 (Mon) 21:08 [Preview] No.51766 del
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I was searching for Ukrainian equipment used in the war. I deviated from the actual mark here and there, skimming various somewhat related articles and looking up stuff from there.
What an interesting find. Does she scream down airplanes from the sky?


Bernd 03/12/2024 (Tue) 14:39 [Preview] No.51767 del
The Russian Liberation Army or how it is called, one of the Ukrainian Russian unit is attacking into Belgorod Oblast. Fun.


Bernd 03/13/2024 (Wed) 21:23 [Preview] No.51782 del
>>51767
I doubt much will come out of this. I highly suspect this is for spicing up the Russian elections that takes place on March 15-17.


Bernd 03/18/2024 (Mon) 09:03 [Preview] No.51797 del
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The "news" of the day: Putin won Russian presidential election, by 87%, at 74% turnout.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/17/kremlin-vladimir-putin-claim-landslide-russian-election-victory


Bernd 03/18/2024 (Mon) 20:47 [Preview] No.51799 del
>>51797
Total Democracy Win
No opposition was harmed during this election


Bernd 03/18/2024 (Mon) 20:49 [Preview] No.51800 del
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Up to this date I've seen (kinda, partially on youtube) two videos when a Bradley faces a tank, while coordinating with either artillery battery and/or a drone team. Both were Bradleys of the 47th Brigade.
Actually the first video was about a month ago, and featured two Bradleys. Well they weren't featured just their tracer munition, it focuses on the T-90.
I assume this is a way to keep Ukrainian tanks out of harm. Concentrated fire of Bradleys could be enough, and if they can add some bombardment while the tank is distracted, they surely don't need the gun of a tank.


Bernd 03/18/2024 (Mon) 21:16 [Preview] No.51801 del
>>51799
Inspirational for all the third world's budding democracies.


Bernd 03/21/2024 (Thu) 14:41 [Preview] No.51804 del
Potentially good source of tidbits is the Janes' website. Just type "Ukraine" in the search field and order it by Date, like this:
https://www.janes.com/search-results?indexCatalogue=all---production&searchQuery=ukraine&wordsMode=&orderBy=Newest
These articles are short reports but they offer interesting finds. For example the latest:
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-netherlands-pledges-multimillion-euro-f-16-weapons-uav-package-for-kyiv
The following data can be extracted directly:
- Netherlands sends F-16s
- €150 million worth of ammo for the jets
- this purchase will be done directly from the industry - not via Ukraine first
- €200 million for ISR drone purchase - together with partner countries (so it seems this 200 Milka won't be spent by Netherlands alone)
- 18 F-16s go to Romania to used in training
- 24 F-16s go directly to Ukraine
- there is a pilot and maintenance crew training center in Romania for Ukrainian airmen
- there is a so called F-16 coalition: Belgium, Denmark, Luxemburg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, UK, US.
I wonder what an exbert could conclude, what derivative information could he mine out of this. Such as one might know the types of ISR drones, and their price and could guesstimate how this 200 Milka will be spent. Eg. Bayraktar TB2 costs about 5 mil, so they can buy 40 pieces of it. Or such expert might now that what "the industry" expression means, what companies and factories, are they in Europe, in the US, who are their owners, who gets this infusion of funds, etc.


Bernd 03/22/2024 (Fri) 23:46 [Preview] No.51806 del
Something brewin' in Russia, waiting for updates


Bernd 03/23/2024 (Sat) 06:17 [Preview] No.51807 del
>>51806
It's called kvas.


Bernd 03/23/2024 (Sat) 16:28 [Preview] No.51809 del
As a note. Crocus City Hall shooting in Moscow. Claimed to be ISIS, Kremlin says 11 arrested, 4 directly involved in the attack, tried to fled to Ukraine.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/23/moscow-concert-hall-attack-what-do-we-know-so-far

In criticism of the Putin-regime we will probably see claims that the security forces of Russia are both incompetent to allow and mastermind to orchestrate the attack at the same time. So who knows.


Bernd 03/23/2024 (Sat) 18:57 [Preview] No.51810 del
I think that this "they were heading for Ukraine" story is silly. How would they cross the border which is most likely more watched than pornhub, especially after the Ukrainian action against Belgorod.


Bernd 03/24/2024 (Sun) 08:13 [Preview] No.51811 del
>>51809
Death toll at the moment: 143.
Apparently 6000 people attended the place.


Bernd 03/26/2024 (Tue) 12:31 [Preview] No.51819 del
Apparently during Russian election time, people - mostly babushkas - were called on phone and conned into setting the voting booths and ballots and whatnot on fire with various liquids, molotov cocktails.
The Crocus attackers used similar method to burn the building.
Was election a foreshadow of the event?


Bernd 03/26/2024 (Tue) 19:38 [Preview] No.51820 del
>>51810
Luka claimed they were actually heading for Belarus but wouldn't be able to enter.


Bernd 03/27/2024 (Wed) 07:36 [Preview] No.51821 del
>>51820
Their escape plan is quite mysterious. Well, their escape plan too. I doubt we'll ever know anything sure. Suspicions and accusations all what we are having.


Bernd 03/30/2024 (Sat) 07:53 [Preview] No.51835 del
Apparently Defense Politics Asia has an archive channel where he uploads war footage. Smart. I hear from tubers they get flagged if too much war footage is in their videos, gore and such. So having a channel that doesn't matter if it gets flagged sounds like a good idea.
This channel seems to be 1 month old.
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/channel/UC3OfKXwIgj2m9Wzj-VEZI8A
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3OfKXwIgj2m9Wzj-VEZI8A
Example:
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=uP43kj4K_W4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uP43kj4K_W4 [Embed]


Bernd 03/30/2024 (Sat) 19:41 [Preview] No.51838 del
Invidious is getting fugged by youtube again, can't retrieve videos. So today I'm missing my daily dose of sitreps. Well almost. DPA at last has his channel on Odysee too.


Bernd 04/01/2024 (Mon) 16:16 [Preview] No.51847 del
Article about Nepalese, Sri Lankan, and Indian dudes fighting in the Russian army (Ukrainian volunteers also mentioned).
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/1/why-are-south-asians-going-to-fight-in-ukraine
It seems sometimes they don't treated the the most honorably, like they don't get the wage they promised, or sent to the front instead of doing supporting jobs in the hinterland, or getting only couple days of training, etc. Individual cases are mentioned not wholesale treatment.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 15:17 [Preview] No.51861 del
NATO held a jamboree in Brussels for its 75 bday, almost as old as venerable Sleepy Joe.
It was created in 1949. By the US from the countries who:
- were formerly allied to her in WWII, indebted to her and equipped by her: Canada, France, UK;
- were occupied by her, indebted to her: Iceland;
- were "liberated" by her, then occupied by her, indebted to her, and equipped by her: Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway
- were defeated by her, occupied by her, indebted to her, equipped by her: Italy
- were Portugal - this angle would need a bit of research, but they did some favors towards the Allies in WWII, then the country did some "democratization", I assume a capital injection from the US helped out.
Anyway back to the jamboree. Main participants were the foreign minsters of the now 32 member states and the main topic was ofc Ukraine, but they talked about Africa, Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region too.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg opened with a:
>NATO is bigger, stronger, and more united than ever
He also babbled about the usual stuff, more support to Ukraine and make Ukraine NATO member. From what I gathered the discussion of the foreign ministers were also empty phrases and gestures, and were basically there to each confirm they'll start some cooperation. Our foreign minister stated later in Hungarian media that they are crossing the two red lines set in 2022:
1. NATO isn't part of Ukraine's war
2. have to do everything to avoid direct confrontation with Russia
He also said that they made a decision that a planning and the creation of a proposition of the next plan needs to be started. So they are basically at step -1.
Beyond this he claimed that they "want to raise NATO's coordination role in training and weapon shipments". They'd create a logistical base in Poland, and the NATO personally would arrange the shipments to that base. From the base it wouldn't be NATO's job to move stuff into Ukraine. They'd train Ukrainian solders in NATO countries (they already do this, wtf). Thirdly they want decide how to do that 5 year plan with that $100 billion that is in the pipes.
Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian foreign minister was there too. He also said the usual: send help. He also said it would be nice if they really do it, and in larger volume.
Perhaps this year most countries will met their 2% of budget military spending.

Surprisingly the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news.htm) measures information quite thinly.
This one is cute:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224206.htm?selectedLocale=en
>Group of Experts
They are apparently "independent" and were eleven, did their research since October, contracted by Stoltenberg. But who are these and where can we read the report? On same page they link this:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_223916.htm
But no substantial information.
They have a library tho: https://www.natolibguides.info/natolibrary
This article is fun too:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_224390.htm?selectedLocale=en
>thank you for holding us on leash with firm hands

Btw Stoltenberg will be gone this year, so new General Secretary has to be elected.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 18:57 [Preview] No.51862 del
Time for some map posting. Did it some time ago >>51667 >>51672
How the front moved since then? Gonna use DeepState which was taken over by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense - so I heard. They might not note some changes already happened, but still seems to be accurate - as accurate these things can be.
Gonna use 2024 February 17th as a starting date, so each slice of frontline will have one screenshot from then, and now.

Robotyne
Ukraine halted the efforts. Or perhaps the Russians want them reinforcing this area constantly so they can wear them down. Or not.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:01 [Preview] No.51863 del
Velyke Novosylka and Vuhledar
Bits of lands are taken from both sides, but Russian advances here are surprising a bit.
I think generally Russians are keeping pressure on the whole line of the front, and sometimes they take some land at secondary, tertiary, etc. places.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:06 [Preview] No.51864 del
Marinka and Novomikhailivka and Krasnohorivka
Quite a bit of change.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:12 [Preview] No.51865 del
Avdiivka
By area they took another chunk like Avdiivka. It is fields and villages, but they move closer to Pokrovsk with each meter.
Perhaps they could launch a winter campaign against that hub?


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:17 [Preview] No.51866 del
Bakhmut
Russians are moving towards Chasiv Yar. I think they'd do better in another direction - gonna note it in next post - but this ChY thing is apparently happening. Or perhaps they'll stop at the canal.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:24 [Preview] No.51867 del
Siversk
Not much change - just in case of Velyke Novosilka and Vugledar - but we know they are fighting constantly.
So I think instead of Chasiv Yar, it would be better to move towards Rai-Oleksandrivka. That would cut an important road to Siversk.
However the Chasiv Yar offensive might be defensive. ChY is close enough to Bakhmut for a contentration of force to threaten that hub (Bakhmut).


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:28 [Preview] No.51868 del
Kreminna
Movements back and forward. Nothing consequential. Except for those who die and get maimed ofc.


Bernd 04/06/2024 (Sat) 19:31 [Preview] No.51869 del
Kupiansk
Last one. Again just a bit of back and forth. It seems Russians gave up at Sinkivka.


Bernd 04/07/2024 (Sun) 17:15 [Preview] No.51871 del
Why Are NATO Tanks Equipped With The Wrong Tracks?
Why Is NATO Using Rubber Padded Tracks For Heavy Offroad Terrain?
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=rnvu5cgBZ2o
https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnvu5cgBZ2o [Embed]
He doesn't know, he wants to know the answer. I'm posting because it is interesting to note that they use the rubber padded tracks for asphalt.


Bernd 04/14/2024 (Sun) 06:01 [Preview] No.51888 del
Reading an article in Hungarian media right now.
Apparently Iran launched drones/rockets towards Israel.
Nothing sure in this particular article, don't know if drones, rockets, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, whatever they have. They say "they could launch as much as 4-500 pieces", but don't know how many they launched. They say the flight will took hours.
Tho the article ends that Iran said they launched over 300 rockets, and they link another article of theirs.
https://index.hu/kulfold/2024/04/13/iran-hezbollah-izrael-drontamadas-gaza-haboru-idf/
Eh, a video of weeb union was uploaded 9 hours ago reporting the event, so this happened about midnight in Iran.

I might follow up this. I know previously a "provocation" happened on behalf of Israel, and Iran had to make a response, but at the moment can't recall the event. I'll look it up.


Bernd 04/14/2024 (Sun) 06:05 [Preview] No.51889 del
Ah yeah.
Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria on April 2nd, killing General Mohammed Reza Zahedi the commander of the Quds Force and others.


Bernd 04/14/2024 (Sun) 06:08 [Preview] No.51890 del
After seeing what happened to Gaza, every shitskin on the planet will write a will and testament before touching a white woman


Bernd 04/14/2024 (Sun) 06:28 [Preview] No.51891 del
>>51890
What?


Bernd 04/14/2024 (Sun) 06:39 [Preview] No.51892 del
So the target was Nevatim Airbase south of the West Bank.
Over 300 missiles (cruise and ballistic) and drones were launched simultaneously.
"99%" of these were intercepted by Israel and her "allies" (from elsewhere: US and UK).
7 projectiles reached the airbase and hit.
US said doesn't want a war with Iran.


Bernd 04/15/2024 (Mon) 06:33 [Preview] No.51893 del
Now Israel says they'll retaliate. The retaliation.
They also say they don't know yet when and how, but maybe years later. Meanwhile they'll still bomb targets in Syria.


Bernd 04/15/2024 (Mon) 21:01 [Preview] No.51895 del
It should be a known fact by now that Ukraine asks Patriot batteries from the world - from anyone who has. And some countries do consider this option, EU Parliament even voted that the "EU" (EU members who has 'em) should give what they can. Does this Iranian attack make these countries reconsider? They obtained their systems for a reason, and while I'm sure most of them has in no real danger to get attacked, these weapons are part of their arsenal and their main job is to deter potential enemies from attacks.


Bernd 04/16/2024 (Tue) 02:12 [Preview] No.51896 del
>>51892
Apparently it was more for show than anything else. It was very well telegraphed.

The pro-Ukrainians have been really riled up by the US-British-French involvement in shooting down these drones, they say that if they do that in Israel they should do it in Ukraine too.


Bernd 04/16/2024 (Tue) 06:58 [Preview] No.51897 del
>>51896
>It was very well telegraphed.
Yeah, Iran told US what exactly they are doing way beforehand.
>pro-Ukrainians
From this one can know at least they aren't really banderites or nazis. If they were they wouldn't have such illusions obviously in US logic: Israel is full of Jews, Ukraine is full of only hohols.
But plenty of differences beyond that for the US to rationalize why don't they help out Ukraine in such ways.
>pro-Ukrainians have been really riled up
Sometimes I write couple of words here what I expect to happen after the war. I mentioned all the maimed and the availability of trained footsoldiers for criminal organizations. Another will be looking for scapegoats, Ukrainians, especially the fundamentalist types will want to blame someone, and they'll find plenty to blame. They'll blame Hungary ofc that follows, but they'll blame the west that they let down or even betrayed Ukraine. Some will go through huge disillusionment.
I bet Western propaganda machine will work on it a lot, but it'll be effective mostly for the Western pro-Ukrainians, so they can feel better about themselves, direct the blame towards others like political opponents in their respective countries.
Myths will also be created along the line of this betrayal, which aren't myths in the sense that they are untrue, or entirely untrue. They will be well funded. It's just they'll be told to each other how myths are told. And perhaps they'll gain fictitious details. It's like how masses of German soldiers felt after WWII that the hinterland, the civil society betrayed them. "We could have beaten them but these pansies couldn't hold themselves." And this can be channeled further like NSDAP found more defined groups to blame, commies and especially Jews.
Coming years will be very interesting. Not comfortable, but at least interesting.


Bernd 04/19/2024 (Fri) 06:09 [Preview] No.51900 del
Soooo. Israel retaliated the retaliation of retaliation of retaliation of retaliation...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/israeli-missiles-hit-site-in-iran-explosions-heard-in-isfahan-report
I bet this is just them finding a way to finally bomb Iran's drone factories as they wanted back in 2023 October: >>51146 >>51147 >>51148


Bernd 04/20/2024 (Sat) 21:07 [Preview] No.51902 del
Considerable changes on the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk axis since the last time here: >>51865
What operationally important is the northern advances along the railroad, towards Ocheretyne for they can flank the next line of defense (along those rivers) at Sokil-Soloviove.
I do think they have to take Novokalynove and Keramik first, and ofc Ocheretyne itself, but by the time the units at Berdychi-Orlivka reach the riverbend they just might be ready. Or won't.


Bernd 04/21/2024 (Sun) 15:45 [Preview] No.51903 del
Two days old article but we lost nothing yet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/19/ukraine-us-weapons-house-aid-bill/
The article is behind paywall, which can be disabled by disabling JS on the page. Made screenshots for Bernd, I hid the empty fields for images and advertisements.
Why the politics in the Congress was politicized and the limelight was directed on it, the Department of Defense put together the material package they'll send, or some of it at least.
>depending on where they are stored.
I assume they already have those depots in Polan filled.
They'll send 155mm shells, and missiles for medium-range rocket artillery, should alleviate the urgent need for those. 7 to 14 days from now we might expect stronger resistance on the frontlines.
>It is also probable the Pentagon will provide Ukraine with a fresh tranche of air defense equipment and ammunition
Patriots? I heard Russian planes performing close air support, so they are basically free to do whatever at the moment.


Bernd 04/24/2024 (Wed) 12:54 [Preview] No.51906 del
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/24/russia-arrests-deputy-defence-minister-suspected-of-corruption
Lel, did he not share enough with those above him in the feudal hierarchy, his seniors?
>Timur
Based name tho.


Bernd 04/28/2024 (Sun) 14:52 [Preview] No.51931 del
Some map wankery related to this >>51902
The breakthrough at Ocheratine and how it "bloomed" from April 22nd to 28th (today). It will be interesting to follow how it develops.
Made an animated gif how the breakthrough and bloom at Popasna happened. Two gifs, with 1s and 0.5s refresh rate. I'll try to post 4 key moments in the next post of the evolution of the front.
There were some back and forth, AFU managed to push back at places, so here at Ocheratine this also can be expected, but I think it's established enough that they won't retake the place. At best they might stop the further expansion from there in the near future (on longer run I believe the Russians will push forward).


Bernd 04/28/2024 (Sun) 15:09 [Preview] No.51932 del
(2.12 MB 1275x907 pop-20220508.png)
(2.12 MB 1275x907 pop-20220521b.png)
(2.11 MB 1275x907 pop-20220618.png)
(2.10 MB 1275x907 pop-20220622.png)
The Battle of Popasna started on 2022 April 7th, when the AFU reported that the RUAF was planning to storm the town. To keep things short I won't upload an image of that position, it is obvious what was the original setup. The same day the Russians pushed in south of the town, towards the village of Novozvanivka.
It took a month to capture Popasna in full. First screenshot depicts this, it was on May 8th.
Then the blooming started. The RuAF expanded around town, I think the screenshot of May 21st captures this well.
June 18th shows a fat bulb, and on 22nd the two frontline in the NE closed to together. I think this could be the endpoint of the bloom as the front basically gets shortened, continuous and stable. From here they pushed to Soledar (perhaps that would be good to check as well) and then to Bakhmut.


Bernd 04/30/2024 (Tue) 11:59 [Preview] No.51935 del
Was musing about when Ukraine lost the war and if "The War" was avoidable. Realpolitik says it never is tho.

I think Ukraine lost the war in 2014 when it got decided that it's gonna be war.
With Maidan happening I think Moscow decided Ukraine was lost, and they had to salvage anything they could, so they took Crimea, the one region with key importance, and instigated the separatist movement to have further way in to Ukraine when later becomes necessary, or when the time is right.
Why I say Ukraine lost it already? Because no matter the outcome, Ukraine will lose with a war being fought on her soil. They'll lose population/manpower and for there is no chance to stand alone, they lose their assets, land and production facilities to the West in return for the help "help".
So in early 2014 it was sure that war is unavoidable. Frankly it started already. We might just did not see it some surely did, but if they claimed they "always knew with utmost surety" that would be just backwards forethought, there are always differing opinions, and with enough amount of opinions some bound to be right in the end, no they cannot actually know until things happen and make them right. But prior to that?
With the collapse of the Soviet Union US thought now everything is up for grabs, so they started to chain up their new vassals, gradually moving to east. For example Hungary joined NATO in 1999 the year when NATO bombed Serbia to pressure the release of the parastate Kosovo. And Hungary joined EU in 2004, that year saw the so called Orange Revolution of Ukraine, which helped the pro-West/pro-EU Yushchenko into power in 2005, which meant a drift away from Russia.
I think it goes without saying that while there surely were local groups - and people in general - in Ukraine, who favoured the West, US, EU over Russian relations, neither the Orange Revolution, nor Maidan could have happened without Western meddling, without them artificially creating and inflating local movements. And they probably went beyond astroturfing, using professional agents to do stuff as well.
I think Ukraine's only chance was not being a rope in a tug-of-war, which could have happened if Western Europe and Russia could have reconcile, and started to cooperate. Ukraine could have been a bridge in the process that connects, instead a rope pulled - and now torn to pieces.
So essentially Ukraine had no chance. Countries that entered NATO started to enjoy the protection of the nuclear arsenal of the West and the MAD that comes with it. But Ukraine had none of that, but the US's pull, and Russia's jealous stare.
But what if Russia had been quicker and prevented at least the Maidan, and perhaps the Orange too? Maybe Ukraine would be in peace now, but perhaps a different civil war had been broken out, just in the west with secessionist Lwow and such.


Bernd 05/03/2024 (Fri) 20:00 [Preview] No.51943 del
Came across a substack on Substack with content that's highly relevant to this topic and from an obscure viewpoint. Obscure outside of Russia at least.
https://slavlandchronicles.substack.com/
Basically the author is from that "pro-war imperialist" group >>50588 which criticizes the Putin regime and the Russian defense ministry with the army for not acting decisively enough, for being incompetent, and who sympathized much with Wagner PMC.
I only took a blink into a couple of posts, but here's some titles:
>SPECIAL POST!!! -"Why the SMO?": FSB Spook Insider Reveals Why Putin's Army Failed to Take Kiev!
>Iran May Have Just Saved Putin's Butt By Starting a New Desert War!
>Actually, Russia Will Have to Mobilize A LOT More Men - Assuming they want to win that is.
>Just More of the Same - I don't like Liberalism ... or Islam ... or Putin for that matter.
>Putin: Russia Remains Committed to Multi-Kulti Antifa Values in Wake of Deadly Muslim Terror Killings!


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 08:00 [Preview] No.51946 del


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 16:06 [Preview] No.51947 del
>>51946
Cool recording of close-air-support. Shows how little time they have to get the target aim and shoot while they fly over. I would watch that video without the slowdowns.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 16:15 [Preview] No.51948 del
>>51947
Not how they fired directly back in the days, instead of coming a couple km close to the front and then ballistically lobbing their rockets in.
Or just fire (much more powerful) glide bombs from dozens of km away.

When musing about this war - do you ever think this from the endgoal back?


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 17:15 [Preview] No.51949 del
>>51948
Well AFU air defense forced them to launch rockets bit further away, and converting regular bombs to glide ones that can travel longer ranges (and do some course correction) was also done for the same reason. Now they do "classic" CAS again, at Chasiv Yar I know they do. But at the moment it seems Ukrainian air defense is sparse so there are times and places they can act freely. I assume RuAF selects and times various strikes, not just on the frontline but against targets in the hinterland, to create these holes, these empty air spaces for the combat fliers.
>do you ever think this from the endgoal back?
What do you mean? Like starting at the goal and trace it backwards?


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 17:29 [Preview] No.51950 del
>>51949
>at Chasiv Yar I know they do
Any SU-25 footage from there?

>What do you mean? Like starting at the goal and trace it backwards?
Yes.
Because it's easy to say "yeah, looking back it was probably decided, that there would be war in 2014".

But now think the other way around: If 2014 it was decided there would be war - why plan that shit another 8 years? And then with 8 years planning come up with a huge failure? There was nothing better than hoping that the brigades for some weird reason would not be defending Kiev? (even in 2022 they had weeks of warning in advance)

So please do tell: what was decided in 2014? What wargoal? What kind of war would it be?
And then think backwards from that goal if all your theories still make sense.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:03 [Preview] No.51951 del
>>51950
>footage
I saw some on WillyOAM's channel, in some of the relatively recent videos, ofc.
It's not on board footage, but from the ground. I think from both sides, but from Ukraine for sure.

As for your second point, it could take a while I reply. Surely I won't in full today, but I'll start here with something:
In case you aren't familiar with Realpolitik, here are the tenets:
- in international relations the primary actors are sovereign states
- states do two things: increase security and increase power; they use security to gain power, and use power to increase security (in case you didn't get the memo i wrote about this on this board, its a part what I call the Theory of Power: power is the ability to make decisions, for you and for others, if you can make your own decisions you have power over yourself, if others can decide what you do, they have power over you, if you can decide what others do, you have power over them)
- the international scene is anarchic (no regulative power over the sovereign states)
- states act in their own interests
- impossible to gain complete information, can't be sure about what other states actually doing
- nothing last forever, not peace, treaties, or alliances.
- everything is just business, no place for ideological bias, or morals, or principles
- while war is undesirable, it's natural
- if it comes to war, it is better choose when it starts (act first), then wait until it comes to us
There is one shortcoming of Realpolitik, which is called "security dilemma":
When a state raises her security and power, due to incomplete information other states will recognize it as a threat so they'll try to raise their own security and power, which makes everyone suspicious again and they raise their security and power again. With every step of introducing more weapons to the system (the typical instruments of security and power enforcement) the system becomes less stable, and they get closer to war.

Okay, will continue sometimes.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:07 [Preview] No.51952 del
WillyOAM takes the videos from various milbloggers mostly from Telegram, so ultimately those should be there.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:13 [Preview] No.51953 del
>>51951
>in international relations the primary actors are sovereign states
Why even postulate this? And it's already proven multiple times wrong anyways, from ISIS to the NGOs of George Soros.
And completely disregards puppet states like Japan who clearly don't act in their own interest.

And where do you draw the line? Where is the difference between Chechnya, Transnistria and Ukraine?

For the sake of simplification I can play along, but I don't think it's gonna get you anywhere.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:16 [Preview] No.51954 del
>>51950
Oh, one more thing: I did also write that:
>Frankly it started already. We might just did not see it
Russia already took away a piece of land from a sovereign state (Crimea) - tho justified with a plebiscite -, and more importantly incited a rebellion, which she supported and while she wasn't in war directly, she already waged a proxy war against Ukraine.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:19 [Preview] No.51955 del
>>51953
primary actors
Ralists do recognize other actors, from international institutions to private individuals.
Don't twist what I wrote.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:19 [Preview] No.51956 del
>>51955
*Realists


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:22 [Preview] No.51957 del
>>51954
>and more importantly incited a rebellion
Arguably the Maidan was the rebellion. And Crimea and Donbass didn't want to play along the Western Ukrainian plans. But since Western Ukraine had some powerful allies, they got themselves a powerful ally as well?
I am not quite sure what happened and why Crimea, but not Donetsk. I have theories and I am curious about yours (basically everything war-related), that's why I write here.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:28 [Preview] No.51958 del
>>51955
Hm. So ISIS plays for you a secondary role compared to the primary role Sri Lanka is playing, because they aren't a state?

I am not twisting your words, I am taking them at face value and point out the inconsistencies.
Anyway forget that I asked. Not so interested in your opinion anymore.


Bernd 05/04/2024 (Sat) 19:38 [Preview] No.51959 del
>>51958
That's not inconsistency. That is in fact part of Realpolitik. They marginalize the role of everything else but the state.
They probably treat ISIS differently than an actor in foreign politics.


Bernd 05/07/2024 (Tue) 05:11 [Preview] No.51966 del
(20.10 KB 172x79 neoplatonia.png)
2deep4me


Bernd 05/10/2024 (Fri) 07:17 [Preview] No.51968 del
(1.30 MB 1732x893 soledar-quick.gif)
(1.30 MB 1732x893 soledar-slow.gif)
(2.49 MB 1918x912 sol-20221209.png)
(2.48 MB 1919x914 sol-20230224.png)
Made animation about the expansion around Soledar.
It starts on 2022 December 9th on the line of Pidhorodne - Bakhmutske/Nova Kamianka - Yakovlivka - Bilohorivka.
I chose to end it on 2023 February 24th. There is some more expansion NW of Bakhmut (and within Bakhmut) but elsewhere on the front around Soledar there is very little change.
For the next post I'll select four characteristic screenshots (made 14 all in all), and I upload the start and end points in this one with the gifs.


Bernd 05/10/2024 (Fri) 07:22 [Preview] No.51969 del
(2.49 MB 1919x912 sol-20221223.png)
(2.48 MB 1919x909 sol-20230116.png)
(2.48 MB 1919x914 sol-20230203.png)
(2.48 MB 1919x911 sol-20230213.png)


Bernd 05/11/2024 (Sat) 14:23 [Preview] No.51972 del
RuAF launched attack from Belgorod into Kharkov oblast, yesterday or even on the 9th (I assume during the night of 9 to 10, perhaps at dawn, I haven't really looked it up). For now everyone guessing what is this, a distraction or a start of a full offensive. Ukrainian officials stress it for a while now that Russia is preparing to attack in Kharkov, they did evacuation too. I have the generic impression when they say Russia will attack she generally does, they don't predict bullshit in these cases.
I don't know the latest, I thought it's worth to make a note here about this event.
Couple of villages got occupied yesterday.


Bernd 05/11/2024 (Sat) 16:39 [Preview] No.51973 del
>>51972
I heard that they have forces gathered north of Sumy as well, so an attack might be launched in that direction too.

But I don't think they have much in the North, people were saying they might have 50k. I'm not sure that is enough to take Khakiv, thought I don't know what the Ukrainians have in that area but I assume that seeing as it's the second largest city in Ukraine and it's right on the border with Russia that they would have a reasonable number of forces and that they would be reasonably well prepared.

Apparently the Russians are going to create a buffer zone, I don't know that I believe that, it's really not worth the effort.
I think this is a way to draw resources away from other fronts.


Bernd 05/11/2024 (Sat) 19:22 [Preview] No.51974 del
>>51973
Apparently they attack here too.
>Sumy
Listened couple of videos, they mention it.
>I'm not sure that is enough to take Khakiv
I'm sure they aren't capable. It is a big city. And fortified 100% with secure depots full of supplies. Unless Ukrainian officers sold it already.
>I think this is a way to draw resources away from other fronts.
I tend to agree.


Bernd 05/13/2024 (Mon) 13:03 [Preview] No.51979 del
So Shoigu was replaced by Andrey Belousov in the seat of the Minister of Defence. Might be related to this: >>51906 since that guy was Shoigu's second.
Shoigu was moved to Security Council of Russia, where he is the Secretary now, which might be the third position in that institution (first is Putin as Chairman, second is Medvedev as Deputy Chairman) - the other members are the heads of various other institutions (like the government and ministry of defense and whatnot).


Bernd 05/14/2024 (Tue) 07:11 [Preview] No.51980 del
Real Reporter is showing off the captured equipment in Moscow.
https://odysee.com/@RealReporter:e/up-close-look-at-captured-abrams-and:8


Bernd 05/19/2024 (Sun) 20:22 [Preview] No.51992 del
(317.24 KB 2000x1283 ebrahim-raisi.jpg)
(488.45 KB 1362x899 jolfa.jpg)
So Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi with other top politicians (eg foreign minister ) vanished. They were flying with helicopter and it crashed. Absolutely no Israeli involvement of course. Happened near Azerbaijan the main ally of Israel in the Caucasus, close to the town Jolfa which is literally on the border. Perhaps he wanted out of Iran, and this was his exit strategy.
Don't forget that the actual head of state is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The president is the head of government (basically prime minister)

https://yewtu.be/watch?v=IzeKov2QVDU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=IzeKov2QVDU [Embed]

https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/498717/Helicopter-carrying-President-Raisi-faces-incident-in-northwest
>According to the TV, Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi has said the helicopter was forced to make a hard emergency landing due to the bad weather condition.


Bernd 05/20/2024 (Mon) 06:24 [Preview] No.51994 del
From Al Jazeera:
>Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian have died in a helicopter crash.
>A total of nine people, including a provincial governor, were on board when the aircraft went down in northern Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. They all are believed to be dead.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/20/live-irans-president-raisi-fm-amirabdollahian-killed-in-helicopter-crash


Bernd 05/21/2024 (Tue) 19:26 [Preview] No.51995 del
International Criminal Court's prosecutor's statement about Hamas leaders (Sinwar, Al-Masri, Haniyeh) plus Netanyahu and Gallant (the Israeli Minister of Defense):
https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state
Basically there is "reasonable grounds" to raise charges against them for various crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Haven't read all of that, and won't today, maybe tomorrow. But this doesn't mean they are guilty, or will be found guilty, just that a case can be opened against them.
>My Office will not hesitate to submit further applications for warrants of arrest if and when we consider that the threshold of a realistic prospect of conviction has been met. I renew my call for all parties in the current conflict to comply with the law now.
Considering Bibi faces about over 9000 corruption cases at home since forever now, this can be shrugged off.


Bernd 05/26/2024 (Sun) 16:41 [Preview] No.52000 del
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It's started with the helmets and recently they were caught discussing blowing up the Crimean bridge. Sholtz did his declaration of the German rearmament back in 2022 April, now German minister of defense, Boris Pistorius pushed the idea of conscription forward, and the 3% defense budget. Someone's gonna get his pocket lined.
As the security dilemma of Realpolitik says:
>the more the states raise their security the more likely a war will break out (more security = less security)
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/05/german-defense-minister-restart-conscription-pursue-3-percent-gdp-on-defense/

set the opacity to 88% to make picrel perfect


Bernd 05/28/2024 (Tue) 19:41 [Preview] No.52009 del
This really is just the part of the EU parliamentary and Hungarian municipal elections, but part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, so here I post this.
https://insighthungary.444.hu/2024/05/17/internal-documents-prove-russian-hackers-infiltrated-the-foreign-ministry

Essentially.
Russian hackers infiltrated the network ("even a secure network that transmits classified information") of the Hungarian Foreign Ministry some years ago (in an article they mentioned "could have been a decade ago), and they are there since. From an internal document our govt. knows this at least since 2021 autumn. The news hit the media in 2022 first time - and this is why I think it's just the part of the two parallel elections, that the opposition media picked this spring to pull it out from the closet again.

Pretty funny that the article - a Hungarian one, calls Orbán "far-right".
I assume Russian hackers aren't the only one who infiltrated that network. And other networks. But these days Russians are considered the problem.
>Directory service, the mail service, the file server service
Was Windows isn't it. Active Directory, Outlook, and Windows File Server service.
I'm really jelly that Best Korea uses her own Linux distro.
Not that Linux can't be haxxed.


Bernd 05/31/2024 (Fri) 06:10 [Preview] No.52023 del
So Macron's sabre rattling is dialed down to the levels of "just instructors".
>"I am pleased to welcome France's initiative to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian servicemen,"
>"I have already signed the documents that will enable the first French instructors to visit our training centres shortly and familiarize themselves with their infrastructure and personnel,"
>Oleksandr Syrskyi said
I believe Sirsky retracted this when they told him he announced it a bit soon. But next article seems to confirm this, and frankly Macron threw this in back in February.
>Ukraine's Defence Ministry, in a "clarification", said Kyiv had been expressing interest in a project involving receiving foreign instructors since February.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-commander-french-military-instructors-visit-ukrainian-training-centres-2024-05-27/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-could-announce-sending-military-trainers-ukraine-soon-diplomats-say-2024-05-30/

My question is: did Ukraine run out of American instructors that was already in the country since 2014 and before? Are they all dead?
Also at this point Ukraine could teach westerners about modern warfare, so they might be sent to gain XP in that since all France and the West knows is how to fight dudes in sandals and bathrobes.
Plus. Perhaps Ukrainian manpower shortage forces Ukraine to send their own instructors to the front, and they want to replace them with westerners. If they don't shoot at the Russians they don't participate in the war, innit.


Bernd 05/31/2024 (Fri) 11:29 [Preview] No.52024 del
>>52023
It does not seem to make much sense, given that it would be much safer to train Ukrainian soldiers to train in Europe or the US like they were in Britain. It would be safer for the Ukrainians themselves but also for the European instructors(I guarantee that the Russians are going to make a point of finding and hitting these European training locations in Ukraine).

But this might be a step towards having French or other NATO troops in Ukraine to fill other roles or to give plausible deniability. After all, it's probably not that easy to tell whether a patriot battery is being operated by NATO forces or if the NATO forces are just there to train the operators.


Bernd 05/31/2024 (Fri) 13:54 [Preview] No.52025 del
>>52024
>It does not seem to make much sense, given that it would be much safer to train Ukrainian soldiers to train in Europe[...]
Absolutely. They do the training elsewhere already why would they start doing it in Ukraine now? Except perhaps out of fear that Ukrainian soldiers would just jump fence and leave if they were in Europe somewhere.
I assume they have different reasons. They send them as observers, or as you wrote, to run systems that aren't on the front and little chance to get captured.
There was that Polish general in Chasiv Yar who was killed. What was he doing there anyway?


Bernd 05/31/2024 (Fri) 17:14 [Preview] No.52027 del
New Colonel Reisner of the Austrian army is out:
The Russian Momentum is back
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=gk7D_TliAuE
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gk7D_TliAuE [Embed]
It's a summary of what washappening since the last time, basically from the start of the Russian winter offensive.
What new was for me is that Russia now produces her own Shahed drones, the Geran-2. I missed out on this tidbit.


Bernd 06/02/2024 (Sun) 09:59 [Preview] No.52029 del
>>52027
Finally.

It looks bleaker for the Ukrainians than most his others. It seems like the Russians are really getting their act together now and are also mobilising much of their economy towards the war.

Colonel Reisner also appeared on a video with Military History Visualised recently. Most of what he said was not new but he made a brief mention about the Ukrainian offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in which he said that the Russians withdrew from Kherson after a deal with the Ukrainians. Interesting...


Bernd 06/02/2024 (Sun) 10:04 [Preview] No.52030 del
>>52029
I just remembered that Military History Visualised has another channel called Military History not Visualised. That was where the interview was, not on the first channel.


Bernd 06/02/2024 (Sun) 12:18 [Preview] No.52031 del
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>>52029
>>52030
>with Military History Visualised
Thanks, I found it.

I agree, he also seems pessimistic about the possibilities for Ukraine.
>Kherson
That is an interesting tidbit. Maybe should try confirming. A casual search had no positive result.


Bernd 06/02/2024 (Sun) 14:57 [Preview] No.52032 del
>>52031
I have never heard about this deal anywhere else. But there being such a deal makes sense, given how smooth the Russian withdrawal was.

It could be that this deal was a classified secret that Reisner should not have mentioned or that it time sensitive and it's no longer classified now.


Bernd 06/02/2024 (Sun) 14:59 [Preview] No.52033 del
>>52032
>or that it time sensitive
I meant or that it was time sensitive


Bernd 06/02/2024 (Sun) 15:22 [Preview] No.52034 del
>>52032
Yeah, I read they just slipped out in three days. There are mocking articles that they can't do it within a week or two and whatnot, and surprised that they done it smooth as you put it.


Bernd 06/03/2024 (Mon) 20:21 [Preview] No.52035 del
So the Abrams are kinda sorta better than Soviet/Russian tanks, but...
Without real combined arms structure they are not efficient and vulnerable. And there is the new challenge the drones represents.
Maintenance problems? I wonder how the Leo 2s fair.


Bernd 06/03/2024 (Mon) 20:24 [Preview] No.52036 del
Well well well, apparently Ukrainian specops are operating in Syria.
>EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Ukrainian Special Forces and Syrian Rebels Decimate Russian Mercenaries in Syria
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/33695


Bernd 06/03/2024 (Mon) 20:30 [Preview] No.52037 del
>>52036
Also in Africa.
Essentially the [insert USian alphabet agency] gained a bunch of soldiers with this war, whom they can use to counter Russian activities all around the globe, and keep their own hands clean.
Fun fact: in Nigeria US troops and Wagnerians were accommodated on the same airports - in different hangars.


Bernd 06/04/2024 (Tue) 20:16 [Preview] No.52040 del
Again, Wyatt of DPA reacts to Colonel Reisner's video, lel.
https://odysee.com/@DefensePoliticsAsia:7/the-russian-momentum-is-back-fake-expert:e


Bernd 06/04/2024 (Tue) 20:37 [Preview] No.52041 del
>>52040
This is great line at 16:46.
>NATO is now teaching Russia, how to counter their weapon systems.
Ukraine is a good testing field... but this is a real drawback. It's like microdosing bacteria with antibiotics to make them resistant...


Bernd 06/05/2024 (Wed) 07:43 [Preview] No.52042 del
>>52032
I found something. Well nothing that outright say a deal had happened. But a situation where we could hypothesize a deal happening.
Here's this CNN article:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html
It's basically an advertisement for that book, The Return of Great Powers. Available on libgen, and I got it too. While the book is longer, but in that particular topic it basically writes the same as the article - I've only skimmed it so I overlooked lotsa details - I search Kherson and rolled through the pages. What I can tell that it polishes the rod of the US govt. and tells us that Putin and Co. are stupid so the US won against an inferior opponent, very impressive.

The story in short:
Kharkov offensive was a huge setback for the Russians, and when the Kherson offensive started they started to panic. Their worries was twofold:
1. they were scared losing Kherson;
2. they were scared that their troops will be steamrolled by the Ukrainians;
So this would have been a great debacle for them, and they were seriously considering to use of tactical nuke if both happened. They started to circulate Ukraine dirty bomb story in case they have to cover up a nuclear strike.
But heroic US diplomacy and secret services were vigilant. So they and Sholz went to Modi and Xi Jinping, and bullied them into going to Putin and pressure him not to use the nukes.
World Saved again by timely and resolute US intervention.

Now.
We can speculate that yes losing lots troops, equipment and key city was actually uncomfortable, and the use of nukes are kinda sorta are always on table, so these offensives could have triggered the use of them. So they could make a deal that they make Ukraine halt and give time for an orderly retreat, and Russia don't use nukes.
This doesn't sound very convincing, but rounds out the story above and offers something to negotiate with.


Bernd 06/05/2024 (Wed) 16:18 [Preview] No.52043 del
>>52042
I have heard that but I don't know that I believe it. I think the most likely explanation was simply that both sides knew that a fight over Kherson would be bloody and miserable for them both.
The Russians were not going to lose their army but fighting in such conditions would have meant their army would be poorly supplied and that many Russian assets such as aviation and helicopters would have to be redirected to resupply the Russians over the river and also to provide air support for them. It could have ended in a situation where the Russian army was stuck in Kherson city, terribly supplied but on the other side the Ukrainians would have to fight in bloody urban combat against an enemy with their backs to the wall, all the while being hammered by Russian airpower and from Russian artillery on the other side of the river. It would be bad for both of them, and also bad for the city itself and the people living there. Most likely it would have ended with a permanent but poorly supplied Russian bridgehead located in Kherson city and then a permanent force of Ukrainians stationed around the city to keep them in check.


Bernd 06/09/2024 (Sun) 07:59 [Preview] No.52046 del
Janes' articles in the last month:
>weapons, equipment, and more weapons to Ukriane
Also now they lock all articles, and need subscription to read 'em in full.
Anyway.
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/ukraine-conflict-germany-pays-for-us-himars-for-kyiv-canada-provides-air-defence-funding
Germany pays. To US. Amerrrica continues to siphon the wealth from Europe into her own pocket.

Now this one, I'd like to read in full:
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/special-report-no-time-to-lose-as-lessons-from-ukraine-force-the-pace-in-electronic-warfare
>after decades of disinvestment in electronic warfare (EW), NATO now had to step up a gear and be prepared to counter a grinding Russian EW onslaught. “We're now seeing [in Ukraine] the most dense and dangerous electromagnetic operating environment we've ever seen,” he said. “Russia never stopped doing EW, it never stopped continuing to invest. We need to learn from the Ukrainians who are fighting for their lives and their country.”
>the fact is that the conflict is witnessing a highly dynamic ‘war in the ether' unprecedented in its intensity
Electronic warfare is more important then ever. The real countermeasure against drones, and against anti-drone capabilities are these equipment.


Bernd 06/10/2024 (Mon) 13:47 [Preview] No.52052 del
The Finnish map updated some time ago the fortification layer, now showing the Ukrainian trenches too. It's under the Tools option.
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The%20War%20in%20Ukraine/091194


Bernd 06/12/2024 (Wed) 20:02 [Preview] No.52054 del
“What Washington is proposing is, 'We [the U.S.] take a loan, Europe takes all the risk, you [Europe] pay the interest, and we [the U.S.] use the money for a U.S.-Ukraine fund,'” said one senior European diplomat. “We might be stupid but we’re not that stupid.”
LÖL
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-eu-war-in-ukraine-loan-russian-assets-negotiations-g7-us-election-western-support-joe-biden-olaf-scholz-emmanuel-macron/
Frankly this whole war is the USA beating the stinging nettle with someone else's dick. With Europe's and with Ukraine's.
Interesting tidbit:
>who legally will be liable to pay the loan back if Hungary [...] vetoes the prolongation of EU sanctions against the Kremlin, which legally have to be renewed every six months
Especially this part:
>have to be renewed every six months
The fun thing is that one day perhaps another EU country will veto it.
Another:
>While EU officials are receptive to these concerns, they’re reluctant to agree to something that comes at the expense of their own taxpayers.
This whole war is payed by EU taxpayers. And the money lands in the pockets of the US oil and military industry. This fucking war is a US money grabbing scheme for their economy is going down the shitter.


Bernd 06/16/2024 (Sun) 07:06 [Preview] No.52063 del
Oooo, the Ukraine peace summit started yesterday. "Peace summit".
War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength


Bernd 06/16/2024 (Sun) 13:22 [Preview] No.52064 del
>>52063
Just so it features here I copy of the Ukrainian peace plan I found on Wikipee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%27s_Peace_Formula
1. Nuclear safety, especially that of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant;
2. Food security for Asian and African countries;
3. Energy security and restoration of Ukraine's energy infrastructure;
4. Release of all prisoners and the return of Ukrainian children deported to Russia;
5. Restoration of the Russia–Ukraine border to that prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, in line with Article 2 of the Charter of the United Nations;
6. Full withdrawal of Russian military forces from Ukraine and cessation of hostilities;
7. Prosecution of war crimes in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the creation of a special tribunal for Russian war crimes;
8. Assessment of ecological damage, including that caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam; prosecution of those responsible; recovery and reconstruction;
9. Guarantees against future Russian aggression;
10. A multilateral peace conference with a legally binding international treaty.

Earlier this week Putin also put forward the conditions when he would start a conversation. Whole speech as here and I think the "proposal" starts at 4015 second. The whole thing is liek 1 hour 20 mins long, but I'd rather listen El Presidente Castro all day. Video has professionally translated captions.
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=vgOS9gzK5Ys
https://youtube.com/watch?v=vgOS9gzK5Ys [Embed]
1. Ukraine withdrawal from Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhia - fully from the whole administrative areas;
2. abandon plans to join NATO.
After these conditions met, then they would sit down and talk about peace. So this isn't even a peace proposal, just preliminary conditions.
It seems they stick to the paper the representatives of these oblasts signed when these regions "entered" or "returned" to Russia, so when Russia annexed them.

Obviously this withdrawal won't happen, and the Ukrainian "formula" is a pipe dream. But at least these give something to the media, from news outlets, through narrocasts in social media (such as this post), to youtubers, to generate some content.


Bernd 06/16/2024 (Sun) 13:31 [Preview] No.52065 del
>>52064
It is a pipe dream. Honestly Russia's peace deal is not too bad for Ukraine compared to the risks they face right now. Russia only wants two mandates and they will end the war:

1) Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

2) Ukraine must reject ambitions to join the NATO alliance.

Compare that to more war. More war means more Ukrainians die. More Ukrainian territory usurped by Russia. More Ukrainian infrastructure gets destroyed. More Ukrainians flee and become refugees. More political unrest in Ukraine and the West. More economic destruction in Ukraine and Europe.

It is absolutely appalling and questionably treasonous to your own citizens not to come to terms with this. I, for one, will NEVER be fighting for this and nor will my family! I don't care how bad things get.


Bernd 06/16/2024 (Sun) 13:39 [Preview] No.52066 del
>>52065
One problem is, which wasn't mentioned, but they talked about this in Moscow earlier this year: Zelensky's legitimacy. The current standpoint of Putin and Co. is that he is not legitimate since his time as President is done, they should have kept an election already. So whatever current Zelensky signs, it would be an easy excuse later to restart military operations.
On the other hand the other side too can claim later that they actually did not sign away any Ukrainian territory, since Zelensky had to democratic authorization from the people of Ukraine.


Bernd 06/16/2024 (Sun) 13:44 [Preview] No.52067 del
>>52066
I think the Russians will have to keep engaging, sadly, until there is a military coup in Ukraine and new leadership willing to negotiate their way out of it. Meanwhile, we in the Western nations have to do our best to throw our corrupt POS politicians out of office before they drag us into a global war (and that itself would cause massive public uproar no doubt about it).


Bernd 06/16/2024 (Sun) 21:22 [Preview] No.52068 del
Fresh NY Times article from yesterday (archived, NYT usually paywalled I don't see why this article would not be):
https://web.archive.org/web/20240616172129/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html

The 2022 spring peace talks. They also link pdf-s (downloadable from the archived page) 2 drafts of the treaty (first from March 17th, second from April 15th) and the Istanbul Communiqué. I upload the English version (Russian ones also dl-able).
The April 15th version essentially says:
- Ukraine is neutral (they detail this in depth)
- weapon restrictions
- some cosmetics (such as about National Socialism, and whatnot)
As for Crimea, Ukraine don't have to recognize it as Russia, no such point in the document, but it stays under Russian occupation (Article 8 implies this).
They mention a map in Article 2, 6 ,and 9, but that is nowhere to be found sadly. It seems about the territories which remain under Russian occupation. This would be very important to judge how favorable or not was this thing compared to current situation, and the proposals above.


Bernd 06/25/2024 (Tue) 13:15 [Preview] No.52097 del
Another attack happened couple days ago in Russia, in the Republic of Dagestan, in the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala. Again gunmen opened fire on (in?, at?) a church, a synagogue, and a police post. 20 died (including 15 policemen), and another 12 injured. At least. Five attacker were killed.

>Tonight in Derbent and Makhachkala, unknown people made attempts to destabilise the public situation,” Melikov said. “Dagestan police officers stood in their way
Uh, I thought the shooters attacked the police station no self-sacrifice was needed on behalf of the police.

Again the blame finds Daesh. I dunno.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/23/synagogue-church-attacks-in-russias-dagestan-kill-police-report


Bernd 06/25/2024 (Tue) 13:20 [Preview] No.52098 del
Heard something today, about what Stoltenberg said:
>Ukraine will join NATO after she defeated Russia
So basically - as the opinion goes - Ukraine should do something she's not able to, then she'll be allowed to do something which she won't need anymore.
>Thank you, Mr. Norway Man
>t. Ukraine


Bernd 07/02/2024 (Tue) 11:40 [Preview] No.52145 del
Since the Kharkov incursion Russians seem to take larger swathes of lands, the size of square kms, at least weekly, but lately every day, elsewhere than the Kharkov front, down at Siversk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Donetsk front. So essentially the Kharkov front sucks the resources from elsewhere and this allows Russians to advance.
It is possible that Ukrainian started to trade more land, to preserve life and material. Frankly these patches they withdraw from has nothing on them, ruins at best.
They really have to pick where they allow the enemy to advance, because the road from Pokrovsk to Kramatorsk is vital.

I heard today that a plain 155mm NATO shell costs 8 times more per round than the Russian counterpart (152mm). I tried to find a source, but gave up fast to get a more recent, so here's two older.
From 2023 November:
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/race-make-artillery-shells-us-eu-see-different-results/392288/
>In October, NATO’s senior military officer, Adm. Rob Bauer, said that the price for one 155mm shell had risen from 2,000 euros ($2,171) at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion to 8,000 euros ($8,489.60).
>For comparison, the U.S. currently pays $3,000 for its most modern shells, according to an Army spokesperson. That price includes the charge, fuze, and shell body.
From 2024 May:
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-is-producing-artillery-shells-around-three-times-faster-than-ukraines-western-allies-and-for-about-a-quarter-of-the-cost-13143224
>On cost, it said the average production cost per 155 mm shell - the type produced by NATO countries - was about $4,000 (£3,160) per unit, though it varied significantly between countries. This is compared with a reported Russian production cost of around $1,000 (£790) per 152 mm shell that the Russian armed forces use.
The first article is closer to what I heard.


Bernd 07/02/2024 (Tue) 15:37 [Preview] No.52146 del
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Orbán is visiting Zelensky today in Kiev. The main apropos of the event is the Hungarian presidency of the EU. Is the presidency matters?
>The presidency of the Council of the European Union rotates among the 27 EU member states every six months. The country holding the presidency guides the work of the Council and represents all member states in negotiations with other EU institutions
You be the judge.
But Orbán went to Kiev because the situation of Ukraine is very important for the EU. There were already preparations of this meeting way beforehand I noted on this board when our Foreign Minister went to the neighbour and they agreed on a meeting. So this visit shouldn't be much of a surprise.
Orbán said why not make a cease fire. The peace process is long, just stop fighting for a bit, this will quicken the process. Or something similar other load of nonsense. If Ukrainians stop fighting that doesn't stop Russians fighting. Tell it to Putin too. Then make that "you first" game. So I think what he said was stupid as fuck.
Zelensky said he is glad Hungary attended the "peace summit", and signed whatever was agreed on, that 2-3 points of the proposed 10.
I wonder if they talked anything worthwhile at all. I don't even know what could that be.


Bernd 07/03/2024 (Wed) 09:06 [Preview] No.52149 del
(241.45 KB 1024x615 maimed-soldier.jpg)
Sudden and weird news.
The article linked below tells three things. Orbán (personally him) ordered these three. One is a change in the budget, seems unrelated (kinda its about the spending of the Hungarian embassies, they get more money), the other two is related to the Hungarian Defense Forces. The one from these two that I find curious - especially after Orbán's visit to Ukraine - is about the care of disabled soldiers, about those who is eligible to receive disability support. From now on only those get the money who had 15 years of service behind them, and their "level of health" doesn't reach 30%. So who are +70% disabled. That is one seriously maimed soldier.
And it is important because if a war breaks out, a war like the one ongoing in Ukraine, there will be lots of new soldiers with various amount of injuries, wounds. All with all kinds of missing body parts, from ears, through fingers/toes to whole limbs, and more. But first, even they get to the front, the standing army will be engaged, and will suffer extremely high casualties - most of which also all kinds of injuries.
So what I see is the Hungarian government want to minimize the spending on these soldiers. Even those who are currently serving, most of them rarely has 10+ years of service. I think they have 5 years of contracts (at first perhaps), I'm not sure at all. But I doubt many are in for 15+ years. And even the most veteran ones (who were all over the globe in various places now, Balkans, Afghanistan, Africa) only the super maimed will get any support, those who can only vegetate.
How this decision came to be?
Did Orbán get information about the losses in Ukraine? About the real situation that does not reaches the media?
https://index.hu/gazdasag/2024/07/03/varga-mihaly-orban-viktor-koltsegvetes-atcsoportositas-honvedseg/


Bernd 07/03/2024 (Wed) 09:13 [Preview] No.52150 del
>>52149
Also do they really think war is actually coming?


Bernd 07/03/2024 (Wed) 09:14 [Preview] No.52151 del
Or are we going into?


Bernd 07/04/2024 (Thu) 05:17 [Preview] No.52152 del
>>52146
Anything appears in the media seems utter gibberish. Reading titles liek:
>The whole Western media is loud from Orbán's visit to Kiev
Now these at least tell me, the whole thing is a PR stunt.
I already see the arch:
>Orbán starts the EU presidency by visiting President Zelensky
<Orbán ends the EU presidency by visiting President Trump
...


Bernd 07/06/2024 (Sat) 19:56 [Preview] No.52168 del
Opinion piece by Orbán:
https://www.newsweek.com/orban-point-nato-peace-not-endless-war-opinion-1915287
Not that interesting, but at least is in English.
But according to Realpolitik, there is no offensive war, just defensive. This is how the Kremlin can invade another country and claim defense.


Bernd 07/09/2024 (Tue) 16:53 [Preview] No.52179 del
(3.64 MB 5656x3630 orbi-and-puti.jpg)
(4.25 MB 4614x3076 orbi-and-zeli.jpg)
So Orbán is on his merry little trip around the world. Kiev, Moscow, Peking, and heading to the NATO summit in the US. I read the reactions:
>he doesnt represents us
>he wasnt authorized to negotiate
>muh appeasement
This last one from von der Leyen, she can make the most nonsensical comments, if Orbán doesn't represent the EU (and especially not NATO), has no authority, can't negotiate - himself even told he doesn't there to negotiate - then how he could appease Putin?
One thing I haven't read: the mantra of the inviolability of national borders. Okay, I did not read all the papers, or all the reactions of politicians but this doesn't seem to come up.
These days the talk about peace is quite frequent. Zelensky's "peace summit", Putin's "proposal", now Orbán's "peace mission", it feels as if the decision makers want to keep the thought in the people's mind with the media frequently floating the idea. Are they preparing the people to accept it? Good propaganda has to be able to change people's mind quite fast. And now about half the people actually about the 1/3 of the voters but whatever are fired up an zealously supports the war. Are these news released to get them used to the idea of ending it? And the lack of mention of the sanctity of borders mean Ukraine will have to concede regions?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-pm-orban-arrives-kyiv-talks-with-ukraines-zelenskiy-2024-07-02/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-says-no-position-negotiate-between-ukraine-russia-2024-07-05/
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungarys-orban-shakes-hands-putin-at-moscow-meeting/


Bernd 07/10/2024 (Wed) 06:18 [Preview] No.52183 del
Yesterday Orbán had a chat with Erdogan in Washington DC.
Today the NATO summit starts.


Bernd 07/10/2024 (Wed) 11:12 [Preview] No.52185 del
Biden's speech on NATO summit:
https://invidious.protokolla.fi/watch?v=MeP7z1GCsDM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MeP7z1GCsDM [Embed]
Fierce speech considering. Some slurring here and there, but it's better than the debate.


Bernd 07/11/2024 (Thu) 08:30 [Preview] No.52194 del
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_227685.htm
>The Allies also pledged to deliver critical capabilities to Ukraine rapidly, with an initial focus
on munitions and air and missile defence systems.
>In January, European NATO Allies agreed to jointly buy up to 1,000 Patriot missiles. In the margins of the Summit, the NATO support and procurement agency (NSPA) has placed an order for Stinger anti-aircraft missiles worth $700 million.
Frankly they can't deploy F-16s in Ukraine (they promised first batch by June), for the missile and drone threat. They would be just destroyed on the airfields. Some even without flying one mission. They stronger air defense.
And not just in the hinterland, their troops are bombed daily on the fronts, FABbed continuously. And their artillery pieces are targeted by Lancets. And other pleasantries. Frankly air defense is way more important for Ukraine than F-16s - granted F-16s are part of air defense/control.
Interesting thing that Matt of WillyOAM said in an interview, and his interviewee, a foreign veteran in Ukraine agreed: lots of Ukrainian soldiers lack in equipment, the defense works are in shambles, they have very little night vision and infra red capabilities on most of the frontline, from the price of one Abrams these problems could be solved, why not start there?!


Bernd 07/11/2024 (Thu) 16:49 [Preview] No.52195 del
Back to our favourite African country.
Mali signed a nuclear cooperation with Rosatom. They'll build there a low capacity NPP. Apparently they are already constructing a larger one in Egypt (El Dabaa), plus have other agreements with Burkina Faso and Algeria.
https://invidious.perennialte.ch/watch?v=GwEz1it1b64
https://youtube.com/watch?v=GwEz1it1b64 [Embed]


Bernd 07/12/2024 (Fri) 08:24 [Preview] No.52196 del
>>52194
I heard that beyond this, they approved again of the use of Western weapons inside Russia.
This could matter for the F-16s too - just as AA rockets - so they could reach Russian airplanes attacking the front with FABS further away. (And ofc for the use of ATACAMS or HIMARS or just simple artillery against targets within Russia.)

Beyond this Stoltenberg said again Ukraine will join NATO.
And beyond all this they congratulated themselves to set up AA batteries in Poland close to Ukraine, which could target incoming threats still over Ukraine. Will they use it to shield targets within Ukraine? Right now I think no plans for that but the implications are there. Range is about 150km I think. Where is an article about this?


Bernd 07/12/2024 (Fri) 16:03 [Preview] No.52197 del
Is this the secret plan?


Bernd 07/12/2024 (Fri) 16:21 [Preview] No.52198 del
>>52197
It's quite telling that the majority of the questions that reporters asked him in his NATO press conference were about his health and him still running for the presidency and not actually about NATO. Nobody believes that he is fit to run for president again other than himself.


Bernd 07/12/2024 (Fri) 16:25 [Preview] No.52199 del
>>52198
Just wait. They make Trump's return so sure that everyone who does not want Trump will go and vote on Biden and reelect him (or whoever they switch to).


Bernd 07/16/2024 (Tue) 07:13 [Preview] No.52210 del
DPA skips reports now. Very disturbing.


Bernd 07/20/2024 (Sat) 07:34 [Preview] No.52225 del
Frontline constantly moving backwards/forwards (depending which side you on), Russians capturing more lands as noted above.
Big news is: no more Krynky.
Ukrainians created a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnepr river at this small village back in 2023 November 6-7. Since then marines were holding the strip, bombarded and attacked by the Russians every day. Two or three days ago they withdrew giving up the place entirely.
I gathered from videos made by Matt of WillyOAM and Wyatt of DPA that DeepState communicated: ~250 AFU soldiers died and ~750 disappeared. Which also means died, I don't think many of them surrendered to their enemy. In the end 6 guys were holding the place, 3 of them died instantly after Russian bombardment, 2 still lived through fire exchanged with handguns, and only one left the place alive. He disappeared however, fate was unknown yesterday.
Krynky was a useless endeavor. There was never any chance to bring there heavy weaponry, they had to move soldiers (fresh troops in, injured and dead out) and supplies with tiny boats. How would one launch an attack from such a place?
Did it tie down lots of Russian troops? I highly doubt it. How much Ukrainian soldiers were in that slim strip of land which was reduced to rubble in weeks, less than rubble offering little to no cover to actually hide. So how many soldiers could be there at a given time? 100? Coupe dozen? That last 6 defender... how long they were there? For how long that six was holding that slice of clay?
The whole thing made little sense.


Bernd 07/21/2024 (Sun) 07:20 [Preview] No.52230 del
DPA says:
>we have 20 frontline changes constantly
I mean even if its a bit exaggerated claim and not all Russian captures, it does seem they advance perpetually.
Constant mention of peace in media.
Will this war be shorter than expected?
New NATO secretary, and probably new US President. They could say they bring change and shut things down.


Bernd 07/27/2024 (Sat) 06:43 [Preview] No.52241 del
(205.88 KB 2048x1365 ColGen-Syrsky.jpg)
Here's the Syrsky interview by the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/24/i-know-we-will-win-and-how-ukraines-top-general-on-turning-the-tables-against-russia

When I searched for it DDG gave some results like "key takeaways from the Guardian's Syrsky interview". Perhaps it would be interesting to check what are their takeaways and how they compare to mine.


Bernd 07/30/2024 (Tue) 08:58 [Preview] No.52247 del
Conflict in Ukraine's Donbas Region: The Geology Behind the Headlines
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=LvxzEa9Rkpg
https://youtube.com/watch?v=LvxzEa9Rkpg [Embed]
Not a new video, published in 2022 November. He presents some maps and explains the geology of Ukraine and the resources can be found there.
The iron belt, the coal region, the gas and oil fields. He mentions the interest of Shell and the Russians.


Bernd 07/31/2024 (Wed) 02:26 [Preview] No.52249 del
>>52225
Some would claim the Ukrainians achieved a favorable material loss ratio in the wider area around Krinky. Even if it's true, Ukraine would have been burning through precious elite manpower to deplete enemy armor and artillery. Do the generals really believe manpower is worth burning through like that? Easier to believe it's one of those "not one step back" orders coming from the highest echelons.

>>52247
Now this is a convenient way to learn geology through prior knowledge of history and geography. Few, if any, viewers would learn the other way around.


Bernd 07/31/2024 (Wed) 07:40 [Preview] No.52250 del
>>52249
>Easier to believe it's one of those "not one step back" orders coming from the highest echelons.
Sounds like it.
Maybe they tried to establish an actual bridgehead and do some operations from there I kinda refuse to believe those two rows of houses was the big prize, but Russians acted more quickly and decisively than AFU expected and they got stuck in that strip of land. Then someone upstairs said, "fuck it, you'll hold that".
Maybe there was even some hope that they achieve some results elsewhere which could help push out from Krynky but it never came.

>convenient way to learn geology
I sure find it helpful. My question was: I see the Dnieper flowing right at the divide of the two zones, but what makes it suddenly cross the pink instead of following the divide to the sea? But then I realized the orange zone ends about there and the coal zone comes with it's ridge, I assume that's less erodible.


Bernd 07/31/2024 (Wed) 14:45 [Preview] No.52253 del
Israel keeps the Syrian Golan Heights under occupation since 1961, settlers continuously colonized the place until they "annexed" it in 1981 and this is okay according to everyone.
Hezbollah did a rocket attack into the place, targeting a military installation, but (also?) hitting a sports field killing children.
As a declared "revenge" Israel did an actual "precision" strike (so they claim) against an Hezbollah hq in Beirut, killing a top leader. Tit for tat continues with Iran.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=XaLKS3g0id8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XaLKS3g0id8 [Embed]


Bernd 08/03/2024 (Sat) 07:53 [Preview] No.52269 del
DPA has new news channel. Perhaps I should collect all his channels to one post, its hard to find them on invidious.
https://invidious.privacyredirect.com/channel/UCRr0ok9LBlj66of_ZrbjNVA
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRr0ok9LBlj66of_ZrbjNVA


Bernd 08/05/2024 (Mon) 11:26 [Preview] No.52288 del
Two things.
1. This could be fairly uncomfortable, private ties, foreign interests, corruption.
https://xcancel.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1819698313769423210#m
This person is kinda controversial being a tranny or whatever. Weirdly enough Trump's vice president candidate, JD Vance, had a run in with him:
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-suspends-transgender-spokesperson-after-fight-republican-1828640
From the article it seems he's very committed to battling Russians, if anything.
As he notes in the video, he tried to resolve the issue through official channels, with his superiors in the chain of command, without success. This is why he made this thing public.
It seems a private group intends to get large amount (over 200 000 kgs) of explosives from the US via Syrsky, circumventing the Ukrainian MoD.
This shit is highly suspicious, just imagine, Bernd, if you'd turn to a general (the commander-in-chief no less) of your country to get weapons for you from another country's military without telling it to the PM/Pres of your country. What the fuck. If I was liek:
>yo buddy, don't tell Orbán, but get some of that Lancets from the Russians
I'm deliberately not giving USA as an example, but someone we aren't in a military alliance with
Anyway... there are some documents in that thread on twitter.

2. Business insider video about US spending on Ukrainian war.
https://invidious.privacyredirect.com/watch?v=WhhovQ7HW4k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=WhhovQ7HW4k [Embed]
At 0:44 the narrator says:
>in a war some have called a stalemate
He said this on 2024 August 4 Anno Domini, when the Russians slowly but surely move forward - and towards victory - for months now. They take larger and larger bites with constant pace, or even accelerating pace. This situation is not something that can be described as stalemate.
I wonder when the narration will shift and acknowledge that Ukraine is losing.


Bernd 08/07/2024 (Wed) 07:34 [Preview] No.52291 del
Ukrainians launched an offensive in Kursk direction, from Sumy.
While there wasn't that big of a hype like in the case of the 2023 spring/summer "counter" offensive, they were telling it for some months now that another Ukrainian assault is coming surely. It seems the time was here to launch it.
I listened DPAs report on it, who said the info is coming from the Russian MoD. Made a screenshot of his video. The liveuamap shows this habbening, but the DeepState map does not yet, the last update was from yesterday.
In a couple of days we'll see what we see.

Meanwhile on the other fronts Russia advances. Recently they did strides at New York, and ofc on the Avdiivka-front, towards Pokrovsk.


Bernd 08/10/2024 (Sat) 12:06 [Preview] No.52306 del
This Ukrainian offensive sounds quite fun.
Very Small fast moving units ventured far from the actual attacking core, spreading disinformation about the whereabouts the AFU troops and the clashes, creating a confusion about what's going on - for both the Russians, and for the spectators all around the world, for the "global" public opinion.
RUAF now reacting in number and containing the breach, defining the actual front lines, solidifying it.
As for the effect on other fronts: none yet seen.
Listening Wyatt of DPA (screenshots from his channel) he compared it to the Russian initial strike which started the war, and the Ukrainian Kharkov offensive of 2022 autumn, but I think today - with the knowledge of the disinformation units it starts to look different a bit. It really depends on those two "tentacles" towards the north east, if they are a real attacking force.
AFU also started to move artillery within the occupied area, to reach further in, and it gives the impression that their intention is to establish a control in there, they are planning to stay.


Bernd 08/11/2024 (Sun) 08:24 [Preview] No.52308 del
Military term worth noting related to the above:
Diversion Reconnaissance Group (DRG):
>refers to a specialized unit tasked with reconnaissance operations that may involve deceptive maneuvers to mislead enemy forces.
So basically Ukraine doing a double operation, sending these DRG units deep into enemy territory, while there is a slower paced "normal" force to actually occupy and hold areas, while actually clashing with counterattacking Russian units - perhaps even do surprise attacks, ambushes, if the arriving Russian troops are too hasty to move forward (and estimates AFU positions wrong.
I think situation isn't changed too much since yesterday.


Bernd 08/11/2024 (Sun) 16:16 [Preview] No.52309 del
This doesn't seem to make much sense. The Ukrainians are simply wasting men and resources.

I heard rumours that the war was going to end in a ceasefire this year. So I wonder if maybe the Ukrainians are launching this attack in the hope that it will give them at something to use at the negotiating table. Because long term this attack is stupid, like actually stupid. If this isn't in support of a ceasefire then all it will do is tie up Ukrainian forces, waste Ukrainian men and resources which they are lacking as it is and give Russia justification to use conscripts and to escalate the war in general. There are also worrying movements coming from Belarus who is of course a Russian ally and so theoretically could be brought into this war.

This operation seems like a desperate gamble to me.


Bernd 08/11/2024 (Sun) 17:41 [Preview] No.52311 del
>>52309
>I heard rumours that the war was going to end in a ceasefire this year. So I wonder if maybe the Ukrainians are launching this attack in the hope that it will give them at something to use at the negotiating table.
I see/hear/read rumors and speculations about that. That "peace plan" of Zelensky's they hyped this year also part of this rumor mill. But Russia has no reason to sit down yet. If they feel they can take more land they'll just go on.
For now the Kursk incursion did not slow down the rest of the fronts, Russians have a capacity separated just for the "SMO", and they use other resources to defend Russia "proper".
On the other hand Ukraine's army is getting weaker by the day. When the cohesion drops low enough, Russia will be able to do anything. And they are betting on this in Moscow I think.
I do think they won't do quick captures like at the very beginning of the war. They will be suspicious of everything. Hidden minefields, booby traps, guerillas in hiding. They don't want neither of these behind their units. Perhaps a point comes when they drop most precautions, perhaps not.
For the Western powers it would be advantageous to have a peace that is temporary, to have a situation they could reignite (especially indirectly through provocations), but the Kremlin don't want to replay this war ever again. They want all the places in their strategic interest to hold, and want Ukraine neutered. They want a buffer zone between them and NATO. They want a buffer zone they have influence on, like Belarus.
They have unfinished business in the Caucasus, and potential confrontation zone in the Baltics, a new one with Finland, and on the longer run in Asia. While China is friendly now, the two countries are rival too, and their cooperation will only last until the US is a danger for both.


Bernd 08/13/2024 (Tue) 07:40 [Preview] No.52316 del
In Kursk Russians are still playing whack-a-mole with the distracting diversionary forces and AFU solidifies and expands the occupied areas.
I think Russia in Donetsk wants something like this, as a mid-range goal. Straightening the front, so they can concentrate more on one point - which is the Tsentr at the center aiming towards Pokrovsk.

Meanwhile one of the cooling towers at Zap NPP vomits black smoke into the sky and noone knows why and what could emit that. Perhaps they piled up a bunch of tires there and lit 'em.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-242-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine


Bernd 08/13/2024 (Tue) 17:03 [Preview] No.52318 del
I think the Kursk offensive is a live military exercise. How would a NATO invasion against Russia would look like?


Bernd 08/14/2024 (Wed) 16:15 [Preview] No.52320 del
Putin is addressing his staff about the Kursk invasion.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=u1qHC_471C8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=u1qHC_471C8 [Embed]
He says that the #1 priority of the Def Ministry is to force out the Ukrainians. But he does not mention the army, only the FSB (Federal Security Service) and the National Guard (Rosgvardiya) - used against the sabotage and recon groups, and some vague combat objectives of the National Guard. Later in the speech he does say that the RuAF doing well in its effort to "liberate" Donetsk and Luhansk, so that is about only the offensive operations of the SMO.
Wyatt of DPA says form open sources it can be gathered that Russians use airplanes, helicopters, and drones heavily, but on the ground it seems it's mostly special forces that engages the AFU on the ground in Kursk. It does seem that regular units of the Russian army aren't there to halt the advances.
So I assume the fight - for now - is the job of the oblast itself, the local units of the National Guard. The federal government complements them with air force, FSB, and other special forces. I wonder why.


Bernd 08/15/2024 (Thu) 11:51 [Preview] No.52321 del
They identified the culprit! It was Ukrainian citizen, Volodymyr Z!
https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-172.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-authorities-obtain-first-arrest-warrant-ukraine-nord-stream-bombing/
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/ukrainske-dykaren-volodymyr-zhuravlov-44-efterlyst-for-sprangningen-av-nord-stream/

German authorities fingered three people as possible culprit for the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, one of them the aforementioned not actually Zelensky, all three expert divers.
Apparently there is a yacht, called Andromeda, where traces of such explosive found, which could have been used. All three person is tied to the boat.
The German article provides a lot of details. A fun one:: the German prosecutor's last name is Rommel. Perhaps the whole thing is just some ML generated fantasy story.


Bernd 08/17/2024 (Sat) 21:16 [Preview] No.52324 del
An Ukrainian cheerleader's analyis of the Kursk offensive, a week ago:
https://realcontextnews.com/kursk-belgorod-operation-ukraines-transformational-ace-up-its-sleeve/

His main points:
>Putin is going to have to remove large numbers of better troops and better equipment from the front lines in Ukraine, and this means there will almost certainly be collapses of the Russian lines in Ukraine.
>the choice for Putin is clear: cannibalize key parts of the Russian lines in Ukraine, almost certainly leading to major Ukrainian breakthroughs there, or allow Ukraine to occupy, control, and demilitarize large swathes of Russia on Ukraine’s border. Because as it stands now, Ukraine has smashed through the rear support lines of the Russian right flank of the entire war effort and will be able to threaten and roll up a large chunk of the Russian line in the north of Ukraine unless a dramatic redeployment of Russian troops from those Ukrainian lines occurs. Again, simple math. And Russia will have to keep a closer eye on other border areas, too, further diverting resources from the front lines in Ukraine
Lots of wishful thinking, the Russians continue to advance in Pokrovsk on a daily basis and potential elite Ukrainian reinforcements have been sent away to Kursk. HistoryLegends mentioned the Russians transferring reserves from the Belgorod-Kharkov axis to Kursk, that's a medium-term brake for their ambitions in Vovchansk. But Vovchansk matters a lot less than anywhere in the Donbas. The chart he cites as a "dramatic decline" of Russian attacks isn't dramatic.

He makes interesting points that the offensive aims to cut off rail lines and occupy high ground. He also correctly points out Ukraine's impeccable secrecy and surprise.


Bernd 08/18/2024 (Sun) 07:50 [Preview] No.52328 del
(842.86 KB 1156x897 2024-08-18-Sudzha.png)
(334.83 KB 1667x850 rail-lines-cut.jpg)
>>52324
That "Daily Russian attacks" graph is lying with the "Russian Spring-Summer Offensive 2024" title for the Russians are on the offense since the Ukrainian "Spring"/Summer Offensive 2023 stopped in Autumn. There is no separable line between the winter campaign and this year's activity.
But about the graph: if we compare it with what's happening on the ground we see that the RuAF takes more land with less attacks, which means less effort on the front, means Ukraine is failing.
Another week passed since that graph was published I wonder how the numbers look like today.
Where is that graph is from? ISW?

>Russians continue to advance in Pokrovsk on a daily basis
And not just there. Lugansk front, New York, Vodian (the highway leading to Vuhledar was cut yesterday).
>points out Ukraine's impeccable secrecy
It is so impeccable that the only information that is available was made available by the Russians. Imagine the implications.

I'm skimming the article. Here's some quotes.
>And one of the main Russia rail lines supporting the war for a large part of the front line—the Lgov-Belgorod Line—has now been severed during this operations
Wow they're practically isolated the SMO forces! They can collapse any day now!
Frankly it could be uncomfortable for the forces at Kharkov, but might not even that.
>to the point that they have taken over and will be able to use Russia’s own rail lines to rapidly move in its own heavy equipment into the area.
They can't because RuAF can (and do) bomb their equipment to hui. Air force is very active there. They took out some important heavy weaponry already (among them at least one HIMARS).
>the choice for Putin is clear: cannibalize key parts of the Russian lines in Ukraine
Which - now with some hindsight - clearly did not happen.
>Ukraine [...] will be able to threaten and roll up a large chunk of the Russian line in the north of Ukraine unless a dramatic redeployment of Russian troops from those Ukrainian lines occurs. Again, simple math. And Russia will have to keep a closer eye on other border areas, too, further diverting resources from the front lines in Ukraine.
So the number of solders and equipment on the fronts is a problem for Russia, but not Ukraine? Very lopsided view.
>prime position
>massive damage
The whole article is full of these expressions. The author really tries to encourage. I don't blame him, the view is bleak.


Bernd 08/19/2024 (Mon) 17:01 [Preview] No.52330 del
Yesterday Zelensky said the goal is to establish a buffer zone in Kursk to prevent Russia opening another front in Ukraine.
Perhaps this idea I put forward here: >>52318 is right and they essentially testing how Russia reacts when attacked. And it is also an exercise, a learning opportunity for Russia to polish their defense plans and actions.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/08/19/zelenskyy-envisions-buffer-zone-as-ukraine-pushes-into-kursk-region/


Bernd 08/21/2024 (Wed) 17:28 [Preview] No.52335 del
How is that a gray zone?
As I understand the gray zone is a place where no Ukrainian or Russian troops are present. Which is a stupid concept for what makes them "present"? Do they have to constantly stand, sit, or lay on it otherwise it doesn't count? Why not just paint that hole pink and purple areas grey??? It's impossible them to be everywhere, cover every square cm all the time. Those aren't occupied, no?!
It's like at the start of this crap, when they draw those worms along the roads.
Imagine WWI generals hunching over the maps how meaningless for them would have been this concept. When French generals evaluated German advances and knew for a fact that there's a patch of field that is not actually occupied they just wrote that down as lost territory. And that's it, it was in German hands from there, and had to be retaken.
This grayzone wankery is literally just to alter the vision, the perspective for clueless outside spectators.


Bernd 08/27/2024 (Tue) 08:42 [Preview] No.52365 del
The Shit Hit the Pants
- Wyatt of Defense Politics Asia

He means Ukrainian side holds back information on frontline changes until they can't hold it anymore and have to be released.
I don't know, it is surely the case with New York, but on the rest of the frontline they update daily. I agree they want to release the news when they have another serious result in Kursk, to lessen the blow. And on their official map (Deepstate) the situation is the same at NY for a week now (while there are no reports of fighting within NY).

Anyway. The Ukrainian Kursk offensive started on August 6. Deepstate released no mapping till the 11th, and the last change they noted was on the 21st. So they don't really cover it.
So here's the map of the Pokrovsk front, or rather the Pokrovsk-Avdiivka-Toretsk triangle from August 6 to August 26 (last update). Changes were noted on daily basis. RuAF is pushing constantly. Won't be winter until they reach Pokrovsk with this rate. They don't need to capture it to reduce it's importance as a supply hub. One important line to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk will be disabled. Which means more pressure on the rest of the supply lines, more traffic, more targets to strike, and reduced effectiveness of troops in that important region of the Donbas.
I'm curious when will the front start to move north at Keramik. I think Russians have troops only to hold the line there and they try to push towards Pokrovsk as long as they can, have the momentum, trying to keep Ukrainians from solidifying the line and keep them on the move.

Will the US Prez election change anything?
Even if Trump gets elected (seems likely) he won't be sworn into office till January. And then Putin still has to agree to sit to the table. As long as the Kremlin feels they have the upper hand, I don't think they will. And as I wrote before, they want this war be done and never repeated. They want strategic victory, with strategic objectives, and a neutralized Ukraine, or what's left of it. And for that they have to push more. It's not about ground but the ability of Ukraine to wage war. Forces will crack, western support will vanish, then the frontlines will crumble they'll still keep slow relatively as written before.
So no. I don't expect any change from the US election and until then still much more water to flow down the Dniepr.


Bernd 08/28/2024 (Wed) 16:25 [Preview] No.52368 del
>>52365
In the East the Russians are entering areas now where the buildings are still intact and there are still leafy trees in the towns. This shows that very little fighting has taken place in those areas as compared with what we usually see where it looks worse than Stalingrad. I heard that the Ukrainians are pulling out, but I don't know how far they are pulling out too.

Regarding the US election, it's hard to say. Germany announced they were reducing spending on Ukraine for next year, they are the second largest donor and we have not really heard much about any new plans or wonder weapons to defeat Russia. The F16s have arrived but people have begun to realise that they really were never going to achieve all that much.
I think that there is a possibility that US support will wain anyway but I also think that if Trump gets in it will certainly wain. But regardless of the party in charge, if US support for Ukraine starts declining or it stops all together than I think the rest of NATO will follow suit(if it does not stop by itself anyway) and I think Ukraine will have to negotiate.

Ukraine really doesn't seem to be the biggest concern in most countries now. Britain has a huge debt, Britain's healthcare is in a bad state as are other public services, they have internal unrest and they have cost of living issues. They can't afford to help all that much. France has similar problems(and it doesn't even have a functioning government) and Germany is not doing too great either.

The only upside for Ukraine is that as time goes on defence manufacturing ramps up more and more which might help if nations choose to send it to Ukraine and if they can send more to Ukraine that way than Ukraine has been getting through NATO stock piles but I still doubt that. I certainly don't think Ukraine is going to get many more Patriot batteries or tanks.


Bernd 08/29/2024 (Thu) 07:43 [Preview] No.52369 del
>>52368
>the buildings are still intact and there are still leafy trees
Ah yeah, I noticed that. They don't really drop FABs for sure and seems not much artillery and drone strikes are basically precision ones. Which means little to no resistance.
This is the "big arrow" offensive, they just have to take it slow, so no potential guerillas/special forces slip in, and no booby traps, mines remain in the way.

Hmm. Germany goes where the wind blows. Will they ever say no to US demands?
Monies should already prepared for a while, and they don't let the whole picture slip. Starting this year was the drama about the €50 billion - "oh my god will Orbán block it circus" - and it seemed it popped out from nowhere, while it was in the pipes since the start of the war basically. They rely on people not be able to track what's going on for a longer run. So god knows what's the situation now.
On EU level they were talking about using the frozen Russian assets. They are debating this for a while now.
>doesn't even have a functioning government
They don't really need it.
>defence manufacturing ramps up more and more
Indeed, the wheels started to spin. I guess they produce 155mm now.


Bernd 09/09/2024 (Mon) 19:40 [Preview] No.52393 del
New info to me, also CNN acknowledging problems...
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/08/europe/ukraine-military-morale-desertion-intl-cmd/index.html

Article writes about huge losses, tho a bit vague on this (whole units eroding).
Also mentioning the hardships on the frontline, with some data. In general units try to rotate troops sitting on the front every 3-4 days. However this could be as much as 20 days. And this is 24/7, it's not like "hey my 8 hours shift is done, I hang my hat". They can sit there, getting bombarded, or attacked by ground troops, replying with fire as they can. The article also says, they often cannot reply with artillery, can't help out the troops from behind.
The real banger is the subordination problems. The "newly" mobilized troops who aren't there on their own volition, they got enough of the fight very quick. Many leave, desert, or try to use connections to get somewhere else, just far from the front.
In the first 4 months of 2024 "prosecutors launched criminal proceedings against almost 19,000 soldiers who either abandoned their posts or deserted"! And things only got worse in the next 4 months passed since. This could mean as much as 40000 soldiers denying to face the enemy!
The author also mentions other problems such as lack of communications, lack of vital information sharing, skepticism towards the Kursk offensive.
For a CNN article this is quite shocking. What the regular readers could think?


Bernd 09/10/2024 (Tue) 04:57 [Preview] No.52394 del
>>52393
The punishment for that kind of thing in most armies used to be death. We have really gotten soft now...


Bernd 09/10/2024 (Tue) 06:51 [Preview] No.52395 del
>>52394
Indeed. When presented with the choice of facing sure death vs. possible death, most people will pick which gives them a (fighting) chance.
But it's not like they will execute 19 (40) 000 people.


Bernd 09/16/2024 (Mon) 15:42 [Preview] No.52417 del
(27.46 KB 280x412 1424284421001.jpg)
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-nuclear-plants-energy-war-joe-biden-united-states-nato/
>The risk of Ukraine losing the war this winter
This, coming from Politico, is like a bomb. What their readers think? They were telling all this time that Ukraine is winning. That Russia is shit! SHIT! This is literally a 540 degree turn.


Bernd 09/21/2024 (Sat) 09:59 [Preview] No.52423 del
(52.46 KB 950x950 grinny-scholz.jpg)
Well, Mr. Jamie Dettmer of Politico, it's time for you to suck some Scholz dick. Imagine the options of Western centers of power if they setting up Scholz as the peacemaker. Really scraping the bottom of that barrel.
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-kyiv-un-security-council-washington-nato/

Anyway.
This article above is one more voice they started to let peep the tune that things aren't going as media (like Politico) told to us. But it also seems to be one that starts to contemplate what they'll present to the readers as victory.
>When the dust settles, will the West’s media coverage get a passing grade, or will we find, at times, we allowed our sympathy for the Ukrainian cause to overlook matters we shouldn’t?
Mr. Jamie Dettmer, you have no sympathy for Ukraine. You write whatever you are paid to write and that is to make the readers feel sympathy for Ukraine just enough to not question whatever bs the legislations and governments pass through related to this war.

Tho this article also starts out with telling us, they are right about everything they wrote check out this paragraph:
>The information trap we’re caught in isn’t one that overplays the true menace of [...] Putin — his thuggish, antediluvian nastiness; the bestial nature of his army’s atrocious behavior; his unlawful and detestable deportations (many of them children) from occupied parts of Ukraine to Russia — all echoing some of the worst episodes of a dark and hideous European past. Nor does it downplay the threat to democracies posed by his axis of autocrats and their antagonism toward classic liberal values.
Nooo, not the children! Think of them.
Literal Holocaust Holodomor. dark and hideous European past
Also Orbán.The "axis of autocrats".

Anyway #2, quotes.
>skepticism needed when considering whether this war is winnable — as in, can Russian forces be ejected from the 20 percent of Ukraine they’ve seized? Are we properly questioning some of the key assumptions underpinning the West’s strategy? Assumptions like Ukraine being the first stage of a broader Russian master plan to launch a land attack on NATO; that the fates of Ukraine and Europe are absolutely synonymous; or that Western sanctions will inevitably wreck Russia’s economy.
Here's the replies this article implies to each question:
>Is this war winnable?
No.
>As in, can Russian forces be ejected from the 20 percent of Ukraine they’ve seized?
No.
>Are we properly questioning some of the key assumptions underpinning the West’s strategy?
No.
>Is Ukraine the first stage of a broader Russian master plan to launch a land attack on NATO?
No.
>Is the fates of Ukraine and Europe are absolutely synonymous?
No.
Will Western sanctions inevitably wreck Russia’s economy?
No.

So much to tell and note about this article. Beyond all the above it also wants readers to support lifting restrictions over weapon systems:
>Questions like is this war winnable in the maximal sense? And if it is, can it be won with the current Western approach of foot-dragging when it comes to supplies or maintaining restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles? And if the West isn’t prepared to do much more, what then? Prolonged war?
Translation:
>if you don't support lifting restrictions that will prolong the war
Isn't giving more straws to Ukraine to grab on prolongs the war but not helping Ukraine actually "win" this?
The author criticizes the "game changing weapons", but can't prevent himself suggesting another one. Good job.


Bernd 09/23/2024 (Mon) 17:11 [Preview] No.52427 del
Thought I compare the newest salient at Avdiivka/Pokrovsk with the earlier Avdiivka one.
Situation today, February 2nd, February 17th.
That huge grayzone is actually just some wankery, so the actual frontline can be anywhere.
How long that bulge will hold?


Bernd 09/24/2024 (Tue) 19:55 [Preview] No.52428 del
>War Is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Ignorance Is Strength
Well, we know that "10-point peace plan" jamboree was done to gain attention in the media, drum up more help from "allies" so they can continue war. War Is Peace: Check.
Does victory means defeat?


Bernd 09/26/2024 (Thu) 09:42 [Preview] No.52431 del
(8.58 MB 854x480 use-of-nukes.mp4)
Russia update the ToS of nuclear weapons. Translation done by Michael Rossi, not machine translator, so might be more accurate than others.
https://invidious.jing.rocks/watch?v=mKrCQyZDy4U
https://youtube.com/watch?v=mKrCQyZDy4U [Embed]
Essentially:
- nuclear deterrence includes Belarus;
- extended definition of weapons and use of weapons that can trigger nuclear response, such as massive air attack - think of the modus of Iranian strike against Israel - with aircraft, drones, hypersonic missiles, etc, or the use other conventional weapons if they create critical threat to the sovereignty of Rus/Belrus;
- nuclear weapons can be used against non-nuclear state which is supported by nuclear states (considered joint attack);

I dunno. Sounds like this new regulation is tailored to a specific ongoing conflict..., although considering new weapons (chiefly drones and hypersonic rockets) and their new type of usage warrants an updated policy.


Bernd 10/01/2024 (Tue) 20:27 [Preview] No.52444 del
Vuhledar is gone. Symbolic. Russians surely payed the price. Tough haggle, Ukrainians.
DeepState map hasn't acknowledge'd yet, DPA, reported based on geolocations.


Bernd 10/02/2024 (Wed) 09:00 [Preview] No.52445 del
DeepState confirmed.
Well they held it for a long time and held it well.
Situation changed. The balance of power tipped towards the Russians, they have the firepower, initiative, and their strategy and tactics evolved.
Back then when the assault of Vuhledar failed, there was only one real fighting force conducting offensive operation: the Wagner at Bakhmut. Now the Russian army is capable conducting even more serious operation what they did there, and not just at one place. They have an offensive at Pishchane (near the Oskil), Siversk, Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut, New York-Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhov, and Vodiane-Vuhledar. They are doing something at Kursk now too, at least checking the AFU there. Very different in magnitude.


Bernd 10/02/2024 (Wed) 15:00 [Preview] No.52446 del
>>52444
>>52445
Things are not going well for the Ukrainians. But you are right, in the past Russian offensives were focused on singular points fo the front, now they are not. But back then the Russians were outnumbered whereas now they are the ones that have the numbers. Though numbers on both sides are really hard to even guess at by this stage in the war.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few days, to see how much farther the Russians can push in that direction.


Bernd 10/02/2024 (Wed) 18:16 [Preview] No.52447 del
>>52446
>But back then the Russians were outnumbered whereas now they are the ones that have the numbers.
True. Situation changed a lot.
>Though numbers on both sides are really hard to even guess at by this stage in the war.
Maybe it would be more correct to say that Russian military is more powerful which consists of a number of factors, one of it is manpower. And perhaps not simply numerical, but number of men who are capable of doing assault operations.
It's told sometimes that not all soldiers are doing frontline duty, and even in the units holding the line not all sub-units are used, or can be used in such way. When I browsed the militaryland map and checked some of the brigades that were set up for the 2023 spring/summer offensive, only 1 or 2 mechanized brigades had an assault battalion. And I remember clearly when Ukrainian soldiers from a mechanized brigade complained that they are used for assault duty which they have nor training neither equipment. Now imagine the situation with "simple" rifle brigades, and even lower: territorial defense brigade.


Bernd 10/04/2024 (Fri) 11:08 [Preview] No.52448 del
(137.56 KB 900x1133 lebanon-geography.jpg)
(1.15 MB 1800x2000 levant.gif)
Israel launched a "limited ground operation" into Lebanon on October 1st.
I wanted to read up on what's going on, I have no time and actual will to do so. I'm still planning to do it.
First 2 pictures are from the NY Times. Article is paywalled, I used 12 feet ladder (turning specific JS scripts should open it tho):
https://www.nytimes.com/article/israel-lebanon-invasion-map.html
Here's an article that touches related topics, like the prelude to the invasion, Gaza, and Iran.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/01/middleeast/israel-ground-incursion-lebanon-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

I'm not sure this invasion will solve anything. Frankly the Gaza operation won't solve anything.


Bernd 10/04/2024 (Fri) 15:52 [Preview] No.52450 del
>>52448
They really haven't achieved much so far. It seems they are being cautious.

I think the Gaza operation does actually have the potential to be beneficial to Israel. If they manage to take and hold Gaza then that puts an end to the Palestinian question. There won't be any more serious Palestinian resistance.

But I agree that this Lebanon operation doesn't seem to have much potential benefit. Even if they take southern Lebanon, then what? Hezbollah will just move north and launch rockets from there instead.


Bernd 10/04/2024 (Fri) 17:29 [Preview] No.52453 del
>>52450
>puts an end to the Palestinian question
They can't "annex" Gaza, they don't want a large Palestinian minority in Israel. At least with that they are outside of it. And there could be in international backlash, tho this don't matter much to them. Muh holocaust.
Plus the West Bank is still there. Problem is the Jews want all the banks, hehehe.
Unless they literally kill all the Palestinians, the only way forward is such a level of cooperation, with such level of Palestinian benefits that no "radical" organization can get a real support among the Palestinian population.
I don't think that's happening either. So at some point things will be at square one.


Bernd 10/05/2024 (Sat) 02:51 [Preview] No.52454 del
>>52453
They would manage Gaza like they do the west bank. The Israelis have the west bank under control even though it's a larger area. Yes there is some resistance their but nothing on the scale of Hamas.


Bernd 10/05/2024 (Sat) 07:05 [Preview] No.52455 del
>>52454
West Bank has PNA/Fatah.
Hamas is good for Israel at least for certain interest groups there and the US, because they can generate conflict out of them when necessary, and they can use it as an excuse not to create independent Palestine.
Now the name Hamas will be too inconvenient so they'll drop it and setup some different organization which Iran can support on.


Bernd 10/06/2024 (Sun) 19:18 [Preview] No.52458 del
Russian fighter shot down own S-70 drone over Ukraine. This type of drone is still in development and used as a pilotless weapon platform, an expansion of firepower per pilot basis. One pilot in a Su-57 can control a few of these.
Now the AFU (therefore the USA) has the wreckage, free to study this new system. What Bernd thinks, how much this matters? The West has experience with these types of airframes, and trick is in the control tech, the programs that enables these drones.
https://www.twz.com/air/why-did-russia-just-shoot-down-its-own-fighter-sized-s-70-hunter-drone-over-ukraine



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